🏈 🎰 Dragon's College Football Picks Week 9 Season 6

[BDragon]

Last Week 4-8
37-36 for the season

I won’t lie I’m scared y’all. This is a make or break week for Dragon’s picks. A repeat of last week and I’m bellow .500 and chasing hard to catch up for the final portion of the season. I do not want to be in that position. A good week and I get some breathing room, a few dollars in my pocket and hopefully can be smart with my picks moving forward. I’ll be honest with y’all, I don’t need this sort of stress in my life. Why do I put myself through this?

As always Dragon’s Picks are brought to you by Dragon’s Lair Training, Tall Pines Marketing & Communications, and Tall Pines Gifts.

Indiana -25.5 vs. UCLA OVER 53.5
Can the Bruins do the unthinkable again? Doubtful. As much as I want to hate on Indiana, I simply cannot deny how good of a team they are right now. On both sides of the ball they work as a unit and simply overwhelm opponents. Led by transfer quarterback Fernando Mendoza, a Heisman frontrunner, he is completing 73.5% of his passes with 23 touchdowns and two interceptions. He’s at 13 yards per completion with an amazing group of receivers around him. Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. are weapons that are nearly unstoppable. The Hoosiers offense is fourth in yards per play. It ranks 11th in rushing success and fourth on third down. UCLA has made major strides on their defensive efficiency since the coaching switch, but they are still a long way from an elite unit.
Indiana -25.5 Over 53.5

Rutgers vs. Purdue OVER 58.5
A game that is only watchable thanks to gambling interest. Rutgers and Purdue features two offenses that are looking to find their groove and a pair of defenses that never got established this season. Before Rutgers got their doors blown off by Oregon their offense was respectably efficient, Their quarterback, Athan Kaliakmanis threw for at least 249 yards in the three Big Ten games and he actually threw for over 330 yards in two of those games. Then game the Ducks and the starters only scored 3 points. Enter Purdue’s defense that ranks 104th in yards per play and 103rd in points per drive. It’s time for the Scarlett Knights to get right on offense. The Boilermakers will be trotting out a backup quarterback for this one, but I do not think it will matter against a Rutgers defensive unit that is one of the worst in the country at 136th in yards per drive and 130th in points per drive.
Over 58.5

LSU +2.5 vs. Texas A&M
Is Brian Kelly coaching for his job on Saturday night? I think he may be. This might be the best A&M team I’ve seen in my lifetime and I’m still not ready to jump on the boat just yet. Mainly because I believe this remains an untested A&M. In terms of expected points added (EPA), the only top-30 defense that Texas A&M has faced is Auburn and that resulted in the Aggies lowest season totals in yards, yards per play, and points this season. Another factor playing in here is A&M’s struggles on the road against ranked teams the Aggies lost 13 straight before they knocked off Notre Dame earlier this season.
LSU +2.5

Nebraska vs. Northwestern UNDER 44
Two programs that surprisingly play well on defense. This has ugly 17-12, 18-9 game written all over it. Nebraska Redzone TD rate is 105th in the nation, have fun Matt Rhule next year PSU.

Toledo -1.5 vs. Washington State
Toledo blows big spreads, luckily this time its a narrow spread and as a matter of fact they were a dog when this line first opened. Hoos fans know the Cougs well after a thriller last weekend in Charlottesville. At some point this team has to run out of steam and the heartbreaks have to sink in.
Toledo -1.5

Vanderbilt -2.5 Missouri
Vandy has become a public darling this season. Part of it is due to their play on the field part of it is due to the love their quarterback Pavia gets. The public money has come in so much that this line grew from -1.5 when it opened to a robust -3 in some books. For me this one comes down to QB play, outside of the game against Alabama Pavia has been great for Vanderbilt, his Oline kept him clean and clear paths for him last week against LSU. In a tight contest like this one I give the edge to Pavia over Missouri signal-caller Beau Pribula. I do think this line needs to be watched and you should use any available boosters you have to keep it under 3. Once the line gets to 3 or north of that I become leery. This will be the first time since 1947 that Vanderbilt plays a game as a top-10 team. All-time, Missouri is 8-81 against top-10 opponents and is 1-18 as an SEC member against top-10 SEC opponents – oh the times we live in.
Vanderbilt -2.5

UNC +10.5 vs. Virginia Over 50.5
It’s rivalry week for the Hoos. I’ve seen plenty of Hoos fans dunking on UNC this season as they’ve struggled to adjust to life under Bill Belichick , but none of that will matter if Virginia fails to take care of business and beat the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill on Saturday. UNC looked respectable last week against Cal, and if it was not for two terrible turnovers they would have one that game outright. Offensively, UNC continued to struggle last week. Gio Lopez was held to 167 yards passing, 100 of those yards went to wideout Kobe Paysour. The rushing attack was not better being held to under 100 yards as well. The turnovers doomed the Tar Heels, but offensive inefficiency continues to plague that unit. Defensively, the stats were good against Cal, but a lot of that can be chalked up to Cal QB Jason-Keawe Sagapolutele playing like a first year player. The more of I watch of JKS the more I see the promise but also realize he has a lot of room for growth. For Virginia the offense seemingly waited until the 10 minute mark of the 4th quarter to get started, but when they did the Hoos were electric. The Hoos will be without Mr. Ross, but the offense should still have enough firepower to get back on track. This is the healthiest the Oline has been since the NC STate game. The test will be can/will quarterback Chandler Morris attempt to drive the ball down the field, or test the edges and stretch the defense. Early in the season the offense asked a lot of questions of opposing defenses by stretching them in multiple directions. Against UofL and WSU the Hoos shied away from that and the defense was able to stack the box. This gummed up the rushing game and allowed the DB’s to play downhill. I can see this one be a tight game, but I think the Hoos win but I don’t like the number.
UNC +10.5 over 50.5

[ElliottHoo]

The writeup on UNC-Hoos feels more like an “Under” bet than an “Over”.

[BDragon]

It’s funny as I was writing it I actually paused and thought “Why am I betting the over here?” And then I remembered it’s more of a security blanket. I’ll do that from time to time. If UVA blows through the spread and covers I think they do it by hitting the over.

[5sheff]

This is why I don’t gamble. I get stressed out just hoping I got my picks right, let alone having any money riding on it. I’m glad we don’t have any games where we are on opposite sides.

I’ve got Pavia-fever here in Nashville and I’m with you on Vanderbilt riding the Game Day emotion to another victory. I also like your Big 10 under. On the other hand, I like the Hoos to cover this week, although I was concerned about their recent offensive sluggishness (plus I can’t pick them cuz when I do, they lose.) I didn’t know what to make of the Toledo/Washington St. game, but I was leaning toward the Pac-2 team. They have been feisty, lately. Mouthy too.

I felt great about my picks last week and all it got me was 5-5. Fingers crossed for better results. I’m 29-26-1 on the season, sitting on that same knife edge that you are. Here’s what I’ve got this week:

UConn vs. Rice, over 49 - Look at the UConn Huskies on a roll! Winners of 4 straight and averaging 35 points per game over that stretch. Meanwhile the Over is 6-1 when Rice is a home underdog over the last 2.5 years. Overall, Rice has hit the over in 19 of its last 28 games at home. 49 seems like a do-able number. Give me more scoring!

Auburn vs. Arkansas, under 55.5 - Auburn plays well at Fayetteville having won the last 4 games there. In a similar spot on the road at A&M, another high scoring team, Auburn mucked it up and easily hit the under. Hoping for more of the same here. Give me a defensive slog!

Kansas State +3.5 vs. Kansas - This one, I’m not going to overthink. KState has won 16 in a row in this series. They are 11-5 ATS against the Jayhawks during that time. We all know how psychologically difficult it can be to break a long losing streak. Give me the Wildcats plus three and the hook.

Temple -5.5 vs. Tulsa - Temple is the better team here - better on third down, better in the red zone, better with turnovers. Both teams are vulnerable to the run, but Temple is much more effective at rushing the ball. Home field advantage?? Tulsa is 4-11 ATS as home team over the last 2.5 years. Give me the Owls.

Miami (OH) -1.5 vs. Western Michigan - This is an interesting match-up where both teams started the season 0-3 and have followed up with 4 straight victories. I’m going to take the home standing RedHawks in this one. Over the last 2.5 years Miami (OH) is 20-1 straight up as a favorite, 18-3 in conference games, 11-3 at home, and 11-0 as a home favorite. Meanwhile over that same time period, Western Michigan is 1-17 straight up as an underdog, 4-13 on the road, and 0-12 as an away underdog. That is too much to ignore in essentially a pick 'em game.

Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma, under 52.5 - Oklahoma has hit the under in every game this year. And surprisingly, Ole Miss has hit the under in 20 out of its last 31 regular season games, 8 out of 12 as an away team.

Northwestern +7.5 vs. Nebraska - Can Northwestern stay on this hot streak? They have won four in a row and covered the spread in 5 out of their last 6. Playing Nebraska ups the odds that they can keep it going. According to VSIN, the Cornhuskers are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 Big Ten games as a favorite. I’ll take the Wildcats and 7.5 points.

San Diego St. -3 vs. Fresno St. - Since 2023, San Diego State is 4-1 ATS after a bye, 3-0 as an away favorite, and 9-5 as the away team. Since 2023, Fresno St. is 2-4 ATS after a bye and 4-13-1 in conference games. The Aztecs are #1 in red zone scoring and #6 in red zone scoring defense. The Bulldogs are #113 in RZ scoring, and #71 in RZ scoring defense. I’m comfortable laying 3 points here.

Iowa St. -2.5 vs. BYU - Most of the bets are going on BYU, the ranked team, but most of the money is going on Iowa State. This has moved Iowa State from a 1.5 point underdog to a 2.5 point favorite. The Cyclones are coming back home after two away losses, and BYU is back on the road after an emotional home win in the Holy War. I’m going with the sharp money here.

Ball State +6 vs. Northern Illinois, and under 42.5 - A team that is averaging 11 points per game is favored by 6? Really?!? Granted, Northern Illinois’s defense is solid, and Ball State has put up 3 points or fewer on three different occasions. But N Illinois is 3-11-1 ATS as home team in last 2.5 seasons, 5-13-1 as a favorite. Ball St. has won each of the last three meetings. And here’s one of those ridiculous statistical nuggets for you: Ball State has won 11 of its last 12 games ATS (91.7%) in MAC play when coming off an upset win. The Cardinals were getting a point last week against Akron so it qualifies. So, yes, I’m taking Ball State for the second week in a row.

Oh good grief - these teams are truly offensive on offense! Give me the under too.

Other games I strongly considered:

South Florida -6 vs. Memphis - what was that stat about teams losing as more than 20 point favorites faring badly again the next week??

Wake Forest +3 vs. SMU

Eastern Michigan +11.5 vs. Ohio

Mississippi State +7 vs. Texas

[BDragon]

I always forget you’re just up the road in NashVegas I need to roll through sometime.

Love the picks you made.

Remember at the start of the year when some of us thought Kansas vs. Kansas St was going to be a big deal?

Ole Miss OU is a game I looked at several different ways and just could not wrap my head around how to play it. I think you took a good angle going with the under. That OU offense struggles and puts up no explossive plays. The Sooners defense is enough to slow down the the Rebels offense that has been contained to some degree the last two weeks.

I wanted to pull the trigger on Iowa St so bad, but BYU seems to be on a mission (no pun intended). I wouldn’t dare bet against them again and get crushed.

One thing I’ve noticed with Virginia being in play in the ACC it’s altered my thinking regarding ACC games on the whole. I passed on the Wake/SMU game, and the GT/Cuse game because I didn’t want to poke the karma bears.

[5sheff]

Yes, Kansas has been a disappointment to me, and Kansas State after being laughable on offense for the first few weeks has come around. I remember when Virginia broke the long streak against Clemson in 1990. That was one of the strongest and most beloved Welsh teams. I don’t see this Kansas team being good enough or this Kansas State team being bad enough to overcome the momentum of a streak that spans more than a decade and a half.

I hear you about BYU. I doubted them against ECU early this year and they thwarted me badly. I think Iowa St. has some injury issues also. But I always tell myself that if the line doesn’t make sense, trust the line and not yourself. I’m following that advice this week.

What did you like in the GT/Cuse game? My instincts told me to take the Orange plus the points, but I couldn’t find any justification in the stats or the trends.

[BDragon]

I was looking at the Under for GT/Cuse. GT plays a very slow deliberate style of ball and I think they’ll choke the Cuse offense by keeping them off the field.

I thought about taking Cuse but like you said I couldn’t find any compelling reason to do so other than being a hater.

[haney]

@BDragon

I’ve seen plenty of Hoos fans dunking on UNC this season as they’ve struggled to adjust to life under Bill Belichick , but none of that will matter if Virginia fails to take care of business and beat the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill on Saturday.

I’ve had to stop myself from dunking on any Tar Heels until this game is over. Even Tar Heels doing that “woe is me, it’s basketball season.”

Even if they send me funny Jordan Hudson memes, I’m not taking the bait. “She seems like a fine young woman and i hope she and Bill are very happy.” I’m not a superstitious person but I am a little stitious.

[zblakey]

@haney

stitious

Had to look that up

[HoozGotNext]

@BDragon

LSU +2.5

Fan Duel boost game, so count me in.

@BDragon

Vanderbilt -2.5

Only -2.5 at home feels trappish but I’m still taking it.

@5sheff

UConn vs. Rice, over 49

Sheff is king of convincing me to bet on games that I’ll never be able to or care to watch.

[fivesheff]

Well, my week is over early. If Temple could have stopped Tulsa on 4th and 6 in OT, it would have been sweet. But 6-5 it is. 35-31-1 for the season. [yawn]

[BDragon]

You’re better off gha. Me sitting at 3-4 with the A&M game hanging in the balance

[BDragon]

Yesterday I forgot that picking LSU means I have to cheer for Brian Kelly… i now feel dirty

[BDragon]

4-5 on the week. Missed on my O/U across the except for Oregon

41-41 on the yr. Gonna be dicey down the stretch.