Last Week 6-4
Overall 36-28-1
We are coming down the homestretch of this college football season. It goes way too fast if you ask me. But I am looking to finish strong. Thereās money to be paid I canāt be out here fighting bears forever.
As always Dragonās College Football Picks are brought to you by Dragonās Lair Training, big blocks of ice, and hai karate cologne-smell like a Dragon
Boise State vs. UNLV OVER 64
Friday night games always make me a little nervous, with a win you start your weekend with a bang, but lose and youāre chasing before Pat McAfee opens his yap on Gameday. But sometimes a game is too good to pass on. Boise State and UNLV are offensive juggernauts. Boise State averages 45 points a game which is good for second nationally, while UNLV is ranked 12th nationally with 39 points per game. If nothing else watch this game to get a glimpse Heisman favorite Ashton Jenty the Boise St. running back who is taking social media by storm with his meme worthy stance in the backfield. Jeanty has racked up 1,248 yards and 17 rushing touchdowns so far this season, despite facing 8 and 9 men boxes most of the season. Heās averaging 9.9 yards a carry, for comparison AC averages 7.5 yards a pass and only has a tick over 1,600 yards passing this season. Defensively neither of these teams are stout. Both have allowed 21 TDās this season. UNLV in particular has struggle stopping teams in the Red Zone giving up 3 rushing TDs to Oregon State recently. Not a good thing with Mr. Jeanty lurking.
Over 64
Tulane -7.5 vs. North Texas OVER 69
Letās have some fun in the AAC. The Green Wave are rolling down in Nola. Tulane is 5-2 and undefeated in conference. This is an offensive unit that hung 71 points on UAB in early October (I legit thought it was a video game score when I first saw it). Tulane features a balanced offense anchored by quarterback whoās been efficient with the ball tossing 11 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions. Running back Makhi Hughes has provided his share as well rushing for 744 yards and 8 TD. Meanwhile the Mean Green of North Texas got stomped by Memphis last time out giving up 52 points to Rice. But North Texas is no slouch on offense led by quarterback Chandler Morris and his 23 passing TDās the Mean Green have the 9th ranked scoring offense in the country. This one could be exciting, two top 15 ranked scoring offenses so grab a Hurricane and buckle in.
Tulane -7.5 OVER 69
Michigan vs. Michigan State OVER 39.5
The Wolverines are painful to watch. I feel like I say this every week, but how can a program as prestigious as Michigan, less than 10 months removed from a national title have zero prospects at quarterback? I can see what Michigan State head coach Jonathan Smith is trying to accomplish in East Lansing. There are flickers of hope for the Spartans. Aidan Chiles is a fun prospect at quarterback who when he is fundamentally sound is very good and has the potential to be great. Unfortunately, Chiles will be going up against a Michigan defense that is still very good and can make the young QB uneasy in the pocket which has led to him turning the ball over. This first team to 21 wins and gets me my cover here.
Over 39.5
Ohio State -25 vs. Nebraska OVER 47.5
This is the third Nebraska game Iāve picked this season. I am 1-1 so far and looking for the tie breaker and I am going with the big cover spread for this one. Early money (69%) has gone with the Buckeyes and I am jumping in with them. A few nuggets that helped bring me to this are Matt Rhuleās teams have only won outright twice when they are underdogs to a ranked team. Both of those wins came against Temple and Matt Rhule coach teams are 0-14 as dogs since then. Hereās a little more history for you, Nebraska has lost 26 straight against ranked ranked teams, good for the second longest streak in among Power Four teams. Nebraska has not beaten a ranked opponent since knocking off Michigan State in 2015. 25 is aa big number but I think the Buckeyes have it in them, and I like the Over as a way to cover myself.
Ohio State -25.5 Over 47.5
Utah vs. Houston OVER 37
This game has stinker written all over it. Both offenses are terrible, ranked 114th and 122nd in offensive success rate. The Utes bit me in the a$$ last week and with that they are now averaging 12 ppg over their last three outings. Things are so bad that offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig āresignedā this week. The Houston Cougars are not much better scoring 14 ppg in their last three that includes back-to-back shutouts against Iowa State and Cincinnati (see Virginia fans things can get far worse). Houston does get Zeon Chriss back at quarterback at his best he rushed for 97 yards and went 15-18 passing against TCU. After going down with injury against Kansas a few weeks ago he is expected back on Saturday. For me the key to this game comes down to the matchup between Utahās running back Micah Bernad and Houstonās rush defense. Benard averages 4.2 yards per carry and the Cougars give up 4.4 ypc (81st nationally). I expect the Utah oline to lean on and wear down and already beaten Houston defense and find the endzone.
Over 37.5
LSU +1 vs. Texas A&M
This might be the first playoff eliminator game of the modern era. Both teams dropped their season opener and have been undefeated since. While the winner of this game is not guaranteed a playoff spot the loser is almost certainly eliminated. The LSU defense was known to be a mess coming into the season, but they have improved slightly. My concern here is the A&M defense that has struggled at times this season. Last week Mississippi State was able to hang with the Aggies scoring 24 points in the process. A&M has not faced a team with the weapons or the offensive firepower that LSU has. Toss in the fact that Brian Kelly (hate the man love his team) have a history of performing well as dogs and I think the Bijou Tigers pull the upset.
LSU +1
Virginia -3.5 vs. North Carolina
Must win game for the Cavilers. Iāve said it before but the Hoos are a good football team. Theyāve come up short the last few weeks but the blueprint for success is there, itās just up to Des to read and use it. Both teams enter the game riding losing streaks, and obviously someone will end thereās Saturday. I go back to the points many of us have hammered home for weeks now, the key for Virginia success will be running the ball. I think the magic number is 28. The Hoos are 3-1 on the year when AC attempts less than 30 passes, the exception being the Clemson game when he was pulled early. The team is 1-2 when AC attempts more than 30 passes with the lone exception being the comeback against Wake in week 2. Run the ball, Virginia backs (including AC in this group) have rushed for 1,117 yards on the year. The rushing attack works. Kobe Pace averages 12.5 carries in games Virginia won this season the only time heās had less than double digit carries in a win was the Wake Forest game. Xavier Brown averages 7.5 touches during the same games. That brings me to the magical number of 21. The Virginia RBās need to combine for 21 rushing attempts if they want to pull this one out.
Virginia -3.5
