My picks are becoming the definition of mediocrity, and I’m okay with that given the way this season is playing out. Week 1 of the Big10 did not treat me well, Michigan outperformed my expectations, and I’m not even upset about the Penn St. game, just because the ending was so amazing. Here we are another week and another slate of games.
Georgia -17 vs. UK: The last time we saw the Dawgs they were getting shut out against Bama on the road. They’ve had a bye week to regroup and they get the Wildcats knocking on their door. I’ve won with and been bitten by UK so far this season, and on the third try I think I’ve finally figured them out. They are a one dimensional team ranked 83rd in the nation at 5.8 yrds per pass attempt. Georgia has one of the best defenses in the country, and they have been pushed by their coaches for the last two weeks to prove how great they really are. This line opened at UGA-14 which I loved but even at -17 I still like the Dawgs here. UGA - 17.
West Virginia - 3.5 vs. Kansas St. The upside and the downside of the smaller schedule means you get to see the same teams over and over and gain familiar. It also means that you can get burnt by the same teams multiple times. KSU and WVU have cost me money this year, so why not go back and try it again. Kansas St is ranked road underdog, think about that for a second. Kansas State is living off a great turnover margin. They’ve failed to outgain all but one opponent this year, Bottom line is they struggle to keep up opponents, and WVU is great moving the ball on first and second down. WVU -3.5
Cincinnati -6.5 vs. Memphis: Memphis can score the ball, we’ve seen that few times this year with the shootouts they’ve been involved in. They also don’t play the best defense in the world. UC’s defense is ranked 4th in the country and they have enough offensive firepower to put some points on the board. I like the over here at 55.5 and give me UC -6.5.
Auburn +3 vs. LSU: Auburn is bad and has had some fluky random and flat-out embarrassing wins this year. LSU is a far cry from the team that won the national championship. They’ve twice had 40 dropped on them. Both teams are struggling to just keep pace in the SEC, I like Auburn as the home team here to have the slight edge, but expect this to be a random outing that may not even be watchable. Auburn+3
Virginia vs. UNC: It’s the South’s Oldest Rivalry… that counts for something. The game opened at -4 for UNC which felt way too low. It’s ballooned to -7 as of this writing, and may creep a touch more before kickoff. I do believe UVa is due for a breakout game, and I think they will at some point this season. I have a hard time seeing it happening this weekend. UNC is loaded offensively and if the Hoos defense can’t get home and create some legit pressure in the backfield it’s going to be a long day for a shaky secondary.