Regular Season 64-56-1
I didnāt plan on doing this, but @HoozGotNext talked me into it. I typically avoid making serious picks when it comes to college football bowl season because there are too many wildcards. But this is the first ever College Football Playoff so Iām doing my first ever post season picks. Letās see how this goes.
As always Dragonās College Football Picks are brought to you by Dragonās Lair Training- Breathe Fire, my ride are die partner and mother to my children, and Nola Bourbon Bread pudding.
Notre Dame - 6.5 vs Indiana Under 52
The battle for Indiana will take place tonight in South Bend. One of these programs is familiar with post season success, the other is experiencing their first double digit win season in program history. The key for me is a theme you will see in all these picks, defense. Indiana racked up gaudy stats for most of the season, but when they stepped up to the take on the top of the Big 10 the offense struggled against the elite defensive units of Ohio State and Michigan. Hoosiers Kurtis Rouke was exposed in both of those contest. Ohio State held Rouke to a 44% completion rate and the Wolverines held the Indiana offense to 18 total yards in the second half.
The Notre Dame defense is one of the best in the nation coming in ranked 7th nationally overall. The Irish secondary is stout only allowing 151 passing yards per contest, second best in the nation. The entire secondary are ballhawks and will capitalize on any weakness shown by an opposing quarterback. On the offensive side of the ball the Irish have improved each week since the Northern Illinois disaster. They are averaging 40 points a game and lead by a run first attack that picks up 6.3 yards per carry. Riley Leonard has been efficient as a dual threat QB guiding the ship.
Thereās also a legit chance this could be a sloppy weather game with snow and or rain expected throughout the day. That should be enough to slow down an already historically slow track and aid in neutralizing a pass happy Hoosier attack and make points difficult to come by.
Notre Dame 6.5 Under 52
SMU +9 vs. Penn State Under 54
Kicking off our Saturday slate of games we have an interesting ones with ACC darlings?!?! SMU traveling East to take on Penn State. Looking into this game I was surprised at the defensive performance the SMU Mustangs have put on this season. They rank 18th in PFFās pass-rush grade and are tied for fourth in the nation with 40 sacks. Theis is a unit that can apply pressure to opposing QBās. The Mustangs are not one trick ponyās (had to do it) they are strong against the run as well ranking seventh in rushing defense and 15th in overall defensive success. A final SMU defensive stat for you to chew on, the Mustangās rank 17th nationally in third-down conversions allowed. The SMU offense has gotten a lot of attention this season, but its the SMU defense that has carried the team all season and they will need it tomorrow.
Penn State is once again a confusing team to me. I have a hard time getting on board with any team coached by James Franklin, 3-10 against top-10 ranked opponents. Watching the Nittany Lions this season their offense is paltry and offensive coordinator Kandy Kotelnicki is suspect at best calling plays in big games. PSUās best weapon is tight end Tyler Warren averaging 7 receptions a game. He can move the sticks and has a knack for getting lost in coverage and coming up with clutch plays. The key will be can the Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar find the time to make the proper reads. Heās struggled against elite defenses, averaging 186 yards, and totaled 3 TD and 3 INTs against strong Ohio State and Oregon Units.
Weather will be a factor in this one as well. The same storm that is hitting South Bend tonight will intensify and you can expect snow on the field come Saturdayās 12pm kickoff. It is possible the Dallas based Mustangs are caught off guard by the cold and the weather, but a sloppy track does not provide a major advantage for the Nittany Lions.
SMU +9 Under 54
Clemson +12 vs. Texas
I am personally jazzed for this game and the battle of the orange, but the general betting public has little interest. Iām hearing this game has the least amount of action across all all the CFP games. This is also the game with the largest spread for the opening round.
The Tigers have struggled against good competition this season. They needed a massive comeback to beat SMU in the ACC championship and earn a spot in the Playoff. When Clemson has played SEC teams this season theyāve scored three against UGA and 14 against South Carolina. I like Cade Klubnik at quarterback and believe he has a bright future. This season he finished the year ranked 11th in the nation in passion yards. More importantly heās good at protecting the ball only throwing 5 interceptions on the season. Klubnik has shown flashes of elusiveness in the pocket running the ball 10 times for 62 yards and a touchdown against the Gamecocks.
The Texas Longhorns are on a mission and have largely coasted through the season looking dominant in most of their outings. This game could prove to be a QB battle with Quinn Ewers looking for his defining moment of the 2024 season. Ewers came into the season with a lot of hype as a veteran QB, and while heās been good this season he has struggled. Mobility is a massive issue for the senior QB whoās to evade defenders.
Clemsonās struggles against good defenses scares me but the spread feels almost disrespectful comfortably sitting at 12 points. I donāt think the Tigers go on the road and pull the upset, but I do think they hang with the Longhorns.
Clemson +12
Ohio State - 7.5 vs Tennessee
Is Ryan Day coaching for his job this post season? Thatās not an completely unserious question.
The Buckeye offense is a bit maddening for me. They have weapons all over the field. Quarterback Will Howard is one of the most efficient passers in the nation, ranking seventh in passing touchdowns and second in the Big 10 with 9 yards per attempt. Freshman WR Jeremiah Smith is a stud who picked up 934 receiving yards and 10 TDS this season. All of that talent and then they have Chip Kelly calling plays and clipping their wings against Michigan in The Game. There are some legit concerns about the Buckeyes offensive line who are missing their starting RT and center, but theyāve had a lot of time to make adjustments and shuffle players around.
Tennessee on the road in true road games this season (at Vandy does not count) has struggled. On the road this season the Vols are averaging 330 yards per game, 4.7 yards per play and 56 total points. Those numbers are the result of road games against Arkansas, Georgia and Oklahoma. Freshman QB Nico Iamaleava has had a steep learning curve this season and his performance on the road vs the familiarity of Neyland Stadium are striking, 519 yards on the road. The Shoe will not be friendly to the freshman on Saturday night.
Ohio State -7.5