šŸˆ Elliott's Offense: Three Years In

Thereā€™s a good article over on Rivals written by Justin Ferber about the evolution (or lack thereof) of UVAā€™s offense during Elliottā€™s three years as head coach. Iā€™ve pulled some eye opening quotes for consideration.

UVaā€™s offense has actually dropped off in scoring ever-so slightly, from 23.3 points per game to 23.2 this year, with one game remaining. Yards per rush has improved by 0.6 yards per attempt, but is still below par at 3.72 yards per carry. Virginiaā€™s yards per play average has remained incredibly steady over three seasons, going from 5.13 to 5.21, to 5.30 this year. Those yearly averages are all 100th or worse, nationally.

Virginiaā€™s offense has ranked 115th or worse nationally in red zone touchdown percentage in all three seasons.

In three years, UVa has scored 40 points just one time (43 vs Coastal Carolina). Theyā€™ve scored 35+ just twice, and have never scored more than 31 against a power-conference opponent.

Conversely, theyā€™ve had plenty of games where theyā€™ve struggled to score. In 27 games against P4 opponents, UVa has failed to reach 21 points, a pretty low bar, 16 times.

In six home games, UVa scored 18.7 points per game, and in their five games against P4 competition, scored just seven offensive touchdowns, two of which came down by four scores. Conversely, UVa fans nearly saw more sacks allowed at home this year (28) as they did third-down conversions (30).

All of that is very, very bad ā€¦ and obviously doesnā€™t show any real improvement, offensively, during Elliottā€™s time here. I donā€™t want to get too far ahead in the discussion about Elliottā€™s future, given that next weekendā€™s game will play a huge factor, but I donā€™t see how under any circumstances Des Kitchings keeps his job. Heā€™s got go.

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Fire Des pray they nail it on a new OC then let the chips fall as they will in 25.

Pretty clean if you think about it.

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Itā€™s honestly humiliating that a former OC has this bad of an offense. 100% predictable too, Clemson fans wanted him gone. Just a really bad hire at the time. Gets me worked up thinking about it.

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If Elliott stays, and Kitchings goes, best case scenario is that they bring in an OC with a dynamic scheme, they bring in some exciting offensive portal guys, and put up better numbers in '25. Will that translate to wins? Maybe a few if you catch teams off guard ā€¦ but itā€™s gonna have to be dramatic, IMO, to save Elliottā€™s job.

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I think the most damning aspect speaking to the lack of progress for UVaā€™s offense is that at the end of year 3 we are still talking about the same O-Line problems we were talking about at the start of year 1. And weā€™re going to be talking about the same O-Line problems in year 4.

And every time someone mentions the lack of production by QBs, RBs, or WRs, it ends up coming back to the fact that the O-Line is subpar and how you canā€™t judge QB/RB/WR because, man, weā€™re just lucky the offense can get its head above water because the O-Line is struggling or hurt or inexperienced or lacks depth.

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And thatā€™s a pretty big rub - how do you get any decent OC candidate to sign on for a ride on the veritable Titanic?

Money helps a lot. But will we pony up?

Phil Longo is available to install his run game friendly air raid that didnā€™t take root at Wisconsin but was pretty productive at UNC.

Regardless, you canā€™t keep Des.

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If you think about it, Elliottā€™s hire has been a real dud from the start.

  • Bad recruiting (canā€™t think of a time when Iā€™ve ever been less invested in our HS recruiting)
  • Hired a really questionable OC on paper who proceeded to torpedo a pretty talented offense in Year 1.
  • Little to almost no fan engagement
  • No social media presence or anything to get the fanbase excited/rejuvenated
  • No accountability (see AC starting into the final game of the year)

Not trying to rehash the Bronco debate, but he came in as a HC who had a clear plan for how to turn the program around (and most importantly, had a track record of doing it). He was quirky and some of his quirks got old, but it felt like a breath of fresh air after the end of the London era.

And he did enough to get you invested in the rebuilding efforts. So much so that when we finally broke through and won the coastal, it felt like we had been building for that moment. I donā€™t know what weā€™re building toward now, I mean half the roster will turnover this offseason and Iā€™m not really even sure what we have in the pipeline. Thereā€™s not much to sell recruits vs. Bronco who was able to sell a program on the rise.

Itā€™s definitely time to cut bait but unfortunately weā€™re stuck for another year. Good news is teams like Duke are having success with the right HCā€™s. We just canā€™t make the same mistakes with this hire as we did with TE.

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Love the Longo call. He needs a redemption so heā€™d be willing to take the job, has ACC experience, and I think is better than heā€™s shown at Wisconsin. The scheme overhaul he was doing there needed more time, they were very established at what they did. RIP Dairy Raid

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Am skeptical of Longo, yes his offenses at UNC put up great numbers but he also had two big time QBā€™s back to back that helped quite a bit. Both of his seasons at Wiscy were very bad with only decent QB play, and I also remember there being some controversy around his usage of Braelon Allen.

Heā€™d be better than Des though, thatā€™s for sure.

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The whole conversation here reminds me of the late Al Groh years when we were done, he was done, but he got one year to turn it around and hired Gregg Brandon as OC. 3 wins and 9 losses later, we officially moved on.

Unless there is a big surprise on Saturday, Iā€™m ready to move on without the Hail Mary OC replacement.

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Oh I think most people are ready to move on, I just donā€™t think we will, so I want to fantasize more about a new OC than a new HC right now. I gave up hope weā€™d get to move on from Elliott after the Pitt game.

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When did Al Groh die? Iā€™m pretty sure he is still alive unless it happened recently?

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This scenario seems very likely to happen next year. A lame duck season where a new OC tries and fails to save Elliottā€™s job

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Think Elliott has the guts to fire des?

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Thatā€™s the million dollar question. If he wants his 4th year he will.

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Bring back the thorterback.

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I mean who do we get as a replacement who would actually want the job.

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Des is currently making 875K.

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Thereā€™s always a coach looking to make a jump. And any coach who doesnā€™t believe they are the guy to flip things around is in the wrong profession

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Idk who could realistically be a replacement for Des, and I agree that weā€™re gonna be limited in our options given Tony is potentially a lame duck coach.

But something HAS to change with the offense if Tony is to stay one more year. It just has to happen, we canā€™t just punt on next season fully. At least try to salvage it.

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