🏀 Fall Basketball Recruiting

Dylan Mingo was supposed to commit to UNC on Monday but canceled the announcement due to “ongoing negotiations” lmao this sport man

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Wasn’t coming to UVA but the Jordan Smith heavy transition to Arkansas away from Duke is interesting to see - and pretty refreshing to watch them hopefully lose someone from PVI finally

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Duke already got Bryson Howard and Deron Rippey Jr

Jordan Smith Jr to Arkansas official, for those of you following

So here we are in mid-February and we have no HS commits, and at least publicly, nobody we are heavily involved with. Is it possible we strike out in this class? (and maybe because we just kept our bat on our shoulder?)

And it seems like a year when there’s good talent in-state (though I have no idea if some of these VA schools in this list are really local, or more like prep schools – like Gillion academy)

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Again, this staff has yet to win a recruitment where it didn’t out bag drop anyone. I think there are a lot of things to be excited about right now but I don’t love how this staff has struggled to acquire talent

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I think we have to give them some credit for Chance and all credit for Barksdale/Carrere, though no clue if the latter two are worth praising yet.

I generally thought we were pretty savvy in the portal, not just overwhelming with $$, but we haven’t seen that savviness in HS recruiting yet. I was re-reading some of thid thread, and it seemed like we had a lot of options in late summer / early fall, and things didn’t really seem to get serious with any of them…

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Optimistic side of me is going to hang my hat on the power of having a good team this year, which was only obvious after the ship had sailed on all/most of our targets.

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I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt for this offseason. I also think that given what they’ve shown us in terms of opportunism in the portal that we shouldn’t rule out the possibility of them going hard after some coaching change commits.

And maybe they’re waiting to see what shakes out there instead of chasing guys who aren’t great fits. They’re 1 for 1 on roster construction in my eyes, so I’m not prepared to get worked up about it yet.

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We’ve had an incredible run this season - for selling purposes to regular transfers, internationals and HS recruits. All have had success this year under a first year P4 coach. Team is winning and players are playing in a style that is popular. We will also still have decent money.

If the staff can’t work with that then we are screwed. I am very excited and optimistic for what April will bring. I do think it will mostly come from international and transfers, but I suspect we get one top 50 and one 50-100 hs recruit before the dust settles.

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We aren’t 365th in pace this year… but we are 311th. Is that attractive enough to recruits? Do recruits like to full court man to man without trying to steal the ball? I’ve heard TDR talk about how the college game is faster than Europe … so maybe thats why they seem to be focused on Euros in recruiting? Style fit?
Faster than only 5 other Power 5 teams.

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We are #182 in average possession length on offense, and run a press to shorten the opposing team’s possession in their offensive halfcourt, so our defensive possession time is #351.

I can’t remember where to find transition splits now that hoop math has gone away (@AdventiveQuasar probably knows), but in general, we get out in transition a lot.

So your question basically boils down to whether recruits want to pick up full court?

I would be surprised if that’s something that recruits have a strong negative reaction to, but kids do have odd tastse, I suppose…

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109th in percentage of possessions ending in transition on offense (I.e. shot/foul/TO): https://hoop-explorer.com/TeamStatsExplorer?advancedFilter=SORT_BY%20off_trans_pct%20&confOnly=false&gender=Men&maxTableSize=300&t100=false&year=2025%2F26&

#118 in defensive transition percentage (higher rank = less opponent transition offense).

Odom’s VCU team last season had more transition but had a similar divergence between transition percentage and overall pace.

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And I suspect the reason we don’t try to force a lot of turnovers with our press, is that we are not good at it. With different personnel, I suspect we would. Heck, when Elijah was getting more PT, he tried it a bit more, so I think it’s something that the coaches would like, but it’s not a strength of at least Thomas, Hall, or TDR.

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We foul enough as it is. Coach probably doesn’t want to add another 2-3 fouls each game that far from the basket.

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I think this is right, though I think it’s lower priority than other elements of their style of play. Odom’s teams have been all over the place in terms of defensive TO rate, but I recall him saying before the season that his last VCU team was close to his preferred style. This team has some similarities statistically (defensive 2P%, offensive rebounding, foul-proneness) but isn’t forcing TOs at the same rate (the bright side is that they are a better shooting and defensive rebounding team).

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I suspect the reason Odom has, throughout his career, going back to at least UMBC, focused more on Euro recruits (esp. to the extent one considers the UK part of Europe, which is controversial these days) has to do with (1) overseas connections (maybe dating at least to his Dad’s relative reliance on non-US pools of talent fairly early), and (2) trying to find pools of talent where there was less competition / some comparative advantage in scouting.

I suspect it has very little or nothing to do with play style

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That VCU team, at least in my mind’s eye, had a lot more long, lanky, athletic types: Zeb Jackson, Jack Clark, et al.

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I think you’re right, but I do sort of think he has adopted a bit of a euro team construction style as a result. The euro ball handler-shooter-screener taxonomy on offense seems to be closer to Odom’s way of thinking about the team than the traditional Wooden 1 through 5 one.

It’s probably mostly a happy accident, but my first thought when he put the roster together this offseason was that it seemed like a very modern, euro ball team construction.

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Interesting, but just want to point out that’s significantly different than what @DavetheWave was asking – which was that does Odom go after Euros because they like Odom’s slower play style and/or because they love pressing without trying to force turnovers.

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The euros most likely go to Odom because 1) he paid them and 2) their camps probably feel comfortable with Odom’s heavy euro connections

We should get this kid to reclass and be our center #2. He turns 18 in May and the Nigerian connection with Ugo could help. (top 5 recruit in 2027 currently playing at South Eastern Prep in Florida)

https://x.com/DraftExpress/status/2023410772236501110

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