UVA and Pitt have pretty comparable remaining schedules in terms of difficulty. Both teams probably expected to go 5-2 from here. Clemson has a tougher road, maybe 4-3. All the other teams arguably in the mix (Miami, NCSU, Duke, UNC) have even tougher remaining schedules, and they’re already 1+ losses back. So looks like a UVA-Pitt race from here, with Clemson as the dark horse.
4 Likes
My Guess is Pitt loses two more. They should at most lose two more with their schedule:
@ FSU BC @ VT GT Syr @ ND @ UM
The toughest are @ VT and @ UM. That would put them at 15-5 since we lose direct tiebreaker with them that would mean we have to 16-4 to be ahead of them meaning only one more loss. Outside of the road games at VT and UM, My guess ss most likely other possible losses are @ FSU and Syracuse at home.
4 Likes
Pitt is playing with a lot of confidence … they are better than everyone left on their schedule … we’ll see if they let complacency seep in for a couple of those games …
They are old too and have guys that were tired of losing elsewhere … so they are likely not to lose motivation to play hard every night.
And only having 2 more tough games should allow them to get healthy and rested.
6 Likes
KenPom thinks the real difference between us and Pitt down the stretch is that Pitt’s only 70% likely to win its semi-tough games (FSU&Cuse) while we’re more like 80+% so they drop one and we don’t.
That and KenPom thinks they lose both their tough remaining games while we split them.
We beat Duke on Saturday and I think we end up winning the ACC, but … sigh … we will likely need Tech to beat Pitt for that to happen because I think we’ll have a tough time beating UNC in chapel hill.
Pitt would need to lose 2 more and that’s gotta be @VT and @Miami because I don’t see another L on that schedule unless FSU pulls a monkey out this weekend.
@Raleigh_Hoo - beat me to this haha should’ve read his post first
2 Likes
Prediction: We win the ACC at 16-4. Pitt 2nd, Miami 3rd, Clemson 4th
3 Likes
I’d take Miami over Pitt on a neutral. Easy money
7 Likes
So basically seems the consensus is the worst we do is split the regular season title and lose the tiebreaker for the ACCT 1 seed? And if we win Saturday we are in very good shape to win outright? Works for me. Looking good to add another ‘banner’ to JPJ
3 Likes
6 of 7 of Pitt’s remaining games are against the bottom 7 teams in the ACC. At Miami is the only likely loss, although @VT and Syr can be tricky. Where is KenPom seeing 3 losses for Pitt?
I like our chances at home vs Duke and Clemson but @UNC will be tough. We have a tougher slate remaining for sure.
1 Like
I’m weirdly freaked out by the @Louisville game. I know they are awful, there’s just so much downside to that game. I need to work on my optimism.
6 Likes
Predicted to straight up lose @VT and @Miami. The 3rd loss is probably just that their probability to win all 5 other games is 27%. But that’s based off full season data and clearly Pitt has been better in ACC play than their computer numbers would expect.
T rank, for example, has us favored in 6 of our games and has @UNC as a toss up but our projected record is 16-4. It doesn’t project us to lose any individual game but probabilities show we’ll drop one.
1 Like
I could see that … I think they are pretty even - just a matter of who plays better that day.
2 Likes
There are no accidents!!
He is the Dragon Warrior!!
2 Likes
Am I the only one who keeps waiting for the air to go out of Pitt’s balloon?
KenPom predicts Virginia will finish with 15.69 conference wins and Pitt will finish with 14.48. Rounding is making it look like Ken’s model is giving UVA a 2-game edge when it’s actually much closer to 1. (But we do still have the edge.)
2 Likes
Man if we win 15.69 that would be beyond amazing. Cant this guy just round up (or down even)?
2 Likes
Now if we could finish with 4.20 losses we’d really be smoking.
4 Likes
I just hope we don’t draw Tech in the ACC Tournament. Would not want to play that ball screen offense again
1 Like
It’s the BC game for me. I think Louisville is so bad that it would take a lot to go wrong to lose. However I’m not chalking up an automatic W at BC.
4 Likes
I don’t think we can assume anything with this team. But if we play like we did last night, we should be OK.
2 Likes