February 2023 - UVA Basketball

Injured Reece

(Going to beat this drum until I perish)

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Granted, we missed a few open looks against Boston College, but I voted for “offensive scheme” because it seems clear that opponents are game planning better against us. With a season’s worth of tape to examine, our tendencies are known, and opponents are daring us to beat them with our weakest elements (Kihei driving into a congested lane, Reece from the midrange, Franklin from 23 feet instead of 22, etc.).

That said, we were not necessarily breaking hard on many of our cuts. And it’s almost like the guys are bewildered that the offense doesn’t generate the same looks that it did a month ago.

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We don’t really have a strong Plan B at the moment and our Plan A ain’t so great.

Our starting line up is one look we can go to, but I dont think it’s “the” look we should use to establish and finish a game.

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I feel like until the shooting comes around there’s not much that can be done. They can swap around guys and toy with the scheme but when you’re shooting 28%ish on open looks scheme can’t save ya. Basketball one of those funny sports where eventually you have to score.

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You also need to defend. And defensive stops can give you energy and momentum on offense.

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One general frustration I have, which isn’t at the top of the list, is our inability to get loose balls. It could be that I only remember the ones we don’t get, but it seems like most games we don’t end up with many loose balls. Guys seem hesitant to dive on the floor or commit to running down a long rebound.

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Good point defense can fuel offense just from the energy it can provide.

Our four good 3pt shooters (Kihei, Reece, Armani, iMac), the guys who all average close to or about 40% (so not just good but very good, actually) combined to go 3-17 against BC. Some of those looks weren’t great but the bulk of them were shots we should be taking. BC shut down our drives and we couldn’t hit from outside. That was that.

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It was bad but I don’t think it was quite that bad. I remember McKneely made two 3’s and Kihei made one.

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Those were literally the only makes we had lol

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Sorry, you’re right, fixed it. Those guys were 3-17. The other shots were BVP and Gardner, 1-4, which actually improved our average.

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As bad as everything was looking, Isaac had a good look to cut it to 4 pretty late in the game. I’m guessing we would have lost regardless, but that could have made things more interesting and given us some life. Instead he missed and BC quickly put the game away.

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Our offense does not seem to be designing or allowing good shots or sets for anyone, other than inbounds baseline jumpers which we rarely make. All of our shots the past 3/4 games seen very contested. Teams are now crowded the line and baiting is to drive, which we are and not finishing nor making the extra pass. We are very easy to defend these days.

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We got lots of good shots against ND and Louisville. But we definitely didn’t against BC. So the whole “just make shots” thing is feeling a bit less true after last night. Again, explosive Reece covers up a lot of deficiencies and creates a ton of better looks for guys. But yeah, we need a Plan B.

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NET is down to 21 this morning. We are probably a 4 seed at the moment if I did up a new bracket today. A Q3 loss isnt the end of the world, but I share the concerns of those in how we played recently more than the state of our resume which is still relatively fine. I dont think we are all of a sudden a bad team, and the dog days of mid to late February I think are playing a role in how we have played recently as well. The key will be how the team responds. UNC will be very tough as they will be playing desperate and we will have to shoot the ball better to have a chance. I dont think we are all of a sudden a bad team with bad players. But I do think some adjustments are needed. I would let Shedrick start again and bring BVP off the bench, but that is just me. I trust Tony will figure out the best way to utilize the roster we have. I am just looking to see us play better Saturday win or lose. And then hopefully be in a position to finish the season strong at home against Clemson and UL and head into the post season with some renewed confidence.

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Can see it coming a mile way. We’re going to be the 5 in a 5 vs 12 matchup, and those always work out for the 5 seed.

Yea, counting last night I unfortunately see us going 3-3 down the stretch. Lose at UNC, win last two at home and 1-1 in ACCT. Guess that would settle us as a 4 or 5.

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If it’s a matter of health of Reece and Armann I could see 1-2 going into the ACC tournament. Then it’s kind of a toss up. That first game won’t be “easy” if we are not healthy.

I think as bad as this stretch has been, it’s silly to discuss ceiling without the caveat that hopefully adjustments will be forced to the coaching staff. That is the key to the remainder of the season- devising the scheme, minutes/lineup distribution, and adaptability for various defenses we might see. Zach Carey, Cuts from the corner and others have done a fantastic job highlighting how the triangle has run its current course.

The silver lining is- basically every top 15 team has had some sort of lull this season (minus maybe Houston). Some examples:

-Alabama having a 20+ loss to a <.500 Oklahoma less than a month ago (and barely squeezing a road OT win last night)

-Kansas losing 4 in a row, as of 2.5 weeks ago

-Purdue having lost 3/5

I get those are tougher leagues- but the key is we have talent/experience to be in the conversation. It’s the staffs job to create more dynamism and flexibility in approach. That will determine the course of the remainder of the season.

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