Go ahead and pencil in Virginia vs Liberty in the first round.
I think there are three scenarios possible:
- We donāt respond well, make needed adjustments, and injuries keep plaguing us. Result: 1-2 in regular season and 0-1 in ACC tourney. Probably a 5 seed.
- We respond OK but unevenly - some good some bad. 1-2 or 2-1 regular season, 1-1 in ACC tourney. 3 or 4 seed.
- We get our shit in order. 2-1 or 3-0 regular season, 2-1 or 3-0 in ACC tourney. 2 or 3 seed.
Iād put money on #2 being the path, but could very well be 1 or 3, too. Iād like to see a glimmer of turning a corner first though ā¦
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I think the better questions to ask are how we root cause analysis the offensive problems (cuz letās be honest, we all know the problems are 90% offense right now).
- Failure to recruit elite scorers
- Failure to develop offensive talent
- Offensive scheme
- Injuries
- Unlucky cold shooting
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Now, that said, itās a combination of some of these things. But you look at this team, and look at our recruiting from the 2017 class through the 2021 class, and you realize that the only thing weāve done well with our HS recruits is find a pair of top pass-first / defensive specialist PGs, but given them nothing consistent to work with in terms of reliable shooters, deadly slashers and finishers, or dominant low-post scorers aside from a couple of elite 1-year rentals in Hauser and Trey.
Iām not sure how much Xās and Oās scheme changes would really fix what I see as ultimately a Jimmies and Joes problem. Not to say some of these guys arenāt warriors; Jayden is doing everything he possibly can as a below-the-rim 6ā6" range-limited power forward, as is Kihei with his own size and shooting limitations.
But ultimately we just need better offensive talent plugged in at nearly every position.
And thatās not going to happen in the next few weeks.
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Idk how you have one of the best lineups in the country and donāt use it. This aināt the first time this has happened under TB eitherā¦
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Failure to develop offensive talentā¦ Who on this team, over the years, has improved on that end?
Good question(s) - I come back to Reece a bit. Was he (1) never going to be an elite scorer (so a recruiting miss ā well, not miss overall, but āmissā in this context), or (2) not brought along in an ideal way (so a development miss).** I think there are arguments either way ā¦ I ultimately voted for recruiting, but it seems to me that we are in year 3 of having Reece in an offense / scheme that might not be the best use of his talents (which is not to say itās not the best scheme for the talent ā¦ itās just not the best for Reeceā¦). So I guess itās hard to disentangle scheme and developmentā¦
Also complicating the recruiting answer is that we are still only getting glimpses of what our 2022 class gave us on that score. But ultimately I come back to recruiting, because Iām not sure we have a guy who gives us what Ty and Malc gave us, or what Dre or Joe gave us, so we are left with some brief glimpses that iMac can give us what Guy gave us.
But ultimately, Iām hopeful that Reece + iMac + Traudt + Elijah + (maybeā¦) Blake give us enough offensive firepower next year, but thatās very much a hope. Will RD develop that jumper? What does Bond look like when he sees the court? All to be answered in timeā¦
** And of course, canāt forget about the injuryā¦
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I left the 2022 class out of the discussion (as itās just too early to tell) and focused purely on 2017-2021 classes, which look to be roundly busts aside from Kihei and Reece.
Next year could feel a lot like the 2012-13 season where we give a ton of minutes to 1st and 2nd years that show a ton of promise but ultimately arenāt ready to put it all together. Iāll reserve final judgments until we see how the spring recruiting and retention goes (to include staff changes), which is a giant unknown obviously, but as of right now next yearās team feels like it has NIT potential given the lack of experience it may be facing.
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Just a quibble on Jim Rootās first chart there ā we havenāt really used that lineup but a handful of possessions (literally - less than 10) in the last month or so. And the vast majority of the possessions (~75%) came before Jan 1.
I think to a certain extent that chart is telling us what we sort of know already ā we kicked a$$ in the noncon.
While I have been in favor of more Shed, we also have to acknowledge the limits of the data ā (which is ultimately in Tonyās hands).
So ā would it be worth trying that lineup more? Yes! Absolutely. Do we have good recent data on how it might do? Not good recent data.
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Yeah. My question is how has that line up looked pre-January vs. since January. A shame numbers are so low that we canāt really assess. Given Shedrickās efficiency numbers going down overall, probably wouldnāt be as good, but still probably very good!
(And yeah you can get into the possibility that his efficiency wouldnāt be down if coaches let him play through stuff and played him more overall).
Fair enough. Think the overall point holds that when you make an offense over defense rotation decision and the offense subsequently turns terribleā¦maybe itās time to change that decision
And main point is national media is starting to notice the ābigā hole in the lineup
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Some quick data pullin:
- Baseline (all lineups) - +18.7
- That lineup overall - +42.5
- That lineup through Jan 1 - +47.5
- That lineup since Jan 1 - +26.5
- That lineup since Feb 1 - -1.8 (on 8 possessions)
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I feel the need to say this for the record ā I am actually in general sort of skeptical of the limits of lineup analysis / on-off / plus-minus ā so I understand why it annoys people to harp on this stuff, but we are sort of seeing the convergence of various types of ātestsā here:
- The eye test
- The lineup stats test
- The ādo you have a three game stretch against 3 of the worst teams in your conference where either lose by 15 or need to watch a last second shot rim out to winā test
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I also think his foul rate has limited that line-up as well.
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i canāt put much hope on Gertrude contributing meaningfully in year 1. Injury = zero development this season + major adjustment to P5 + packline assignments.
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Yeah, we discussed some in the past couple days. Iām hopeful for sure, but itās fair to want to see him a bit before we can count on him in year 1.
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I think itās fair to hope Gertrude can be a quality reserve piece off the bench as a true freshman, 15 mpg type, who grows into a starting-level role as a sophomore.
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The recruiting misses on Abdur-Rahim and McCorkle need to be acknowledged.
The recruiting class of 2021 has not contributed much yet, either.
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Lack of development is hurting us too. Sheds has not taken a jump. Taine has dropped off the map. Caffaro is where he was coming in Year 1. Weāre getting nothing at this point from these guys. Sheds is the biggest WTF.
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Our HS recruits between the 2017-2021 classes:
2017: Marco Anthony (miss), Francesco Baddochi (miss)
2018: Kihei Clark (hit), Kody Stattmann (miss), Francisco Caffaro (miss)
2019: Casey Morsell (miss), Justin McKoy (miss), Kadin Shedrick (eeehhhh)
2020: Reece Beekman (hit), Carson McCorkle (miss), Jabri Abdur-Rahim (miss)
2021: Taine Murray (probably miss), Igor Milicic (miss)
Compare that to the hit/miss rate between 2010 and 2016, where every class had at least one guy turn into an all-ACC player, some classes more than one.
Now not all misses are created equally, and itās a whole other discussion as to whether these misses are failures of evaluation, development, or just circumstance (injuries, COVID, etc). But the real takeaway is just the lack of hits.
Yes, itās a new era with transfers, and many schools are showing you can win with Portal guys playing just as many minutes if not more than your HS recruits. Maybe thatās where we go. And obviously it saved our bacon just fine in 2020-21 with three transfers (Woldo, Trey, and Sam) carrying us to an ACC title, and this year three transfers (Armaan, Jayden, and BVP) playing a major role in having us at least near the top of the ACC yet again. But to me itās still glaring how little success weāve had with our HS recruits the last half decade compared to what we got the years prior under Bennettās staff.
Iāll be really curious to see what Bennett wants to do with his staff this offseason. Kirk Penney breathed a lot of fresh air into the offense starting after UMBC, but we lost him after COVID. Does Tony find a new offensive guru to reinvent not just the scheme, but find a way to better develop the talent weāve got to execute it?
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