Thatās next yearās problem.
Iām kidding but seriously everyone is really a 1 year transfer anyways. You canāt bank on anyone being here more than one year. I actually really like our underclassmen OL. If thereās a transfer with 2+ years who is objectively better than our underclassmen? Sure, add them. But Iād rather use our capital and roster spots on the guys that can help us immediately and look to get the young guys as many reps as possible.
Same way in basketball. 2 year plan doesnāt work anymore.
Just want to say this is great info and I appreciate you taking the time to compile it.
I mean, taken to the extreme, whatās the point of recruiting high school kids at all if not to try to develop in some sort of multi-year succession planning?
UVA, even with its improved NIL budget, is never going to āwinā the Portal. (A) B1G and SEC schools can still outspend us, as can many ACC and Big 12 schools. (B) Even if the BOV relaxes the transfer academic hurdles, weāre still going to be a tougher transfer destination than many peers. (C) Weāre still an unsexy school with a losing reputation, even if the next hire is a big name or personality.
So the moneyball approach here (and goes for hoops as well) as a program is to be the program that invests well in young talent and builds a culture that gets a critical mass of those guys to stay and develop into ACC-level upperclassmen. Yes some guys will leave for paydays same as theyāve left for playing time or coaches they like better or easier coursework or whatever. But if weāre going to win consistently, year over year, itās going to be with homegrown guys in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th years in the program.
Iām not saying go āfull Clemson,ā but the backbone of the roster needs to be guys found either out of HS or underclass transfers, and then coached up year over year, who can then be augmented with transfers.
I get itās tough to do right now because Elliott (a) has managed the roster to a point itās got a lot of holes, even with half a dozen transfer commits we still have double-digit scholarships (using the traditional 85 counter) to give out, and (b) heās in 100% win now mode to save his job, while (c) aiming for multi-year guys may not matter much if theyāll all just leave during a coaching change next December.
But that doesnāt stop me from wanting/wishing/hoping we build a roster with year-over-year potential as opposed to year-to-year rebuilding.
I understand the belief we can do the Moneyball thing ā¦ I just donāt think it works well enough any more. Unless or until we get a cap and some guardrails, it will be all about the bag.
Boley, Josey and Witmer were on the 22 team, so could they get a waiver for 26 if they so desired? I mean I doubt theyād want to, but if they didā¦
Steen and Hartsoe too. And Alters and Curry, but I doubt either of those 2 are on the roster past 2025 given neither will have played at all and they have been here long enough to have degrees.
So thatās probably 7 of the 15 guys you listed above not here in 2026. Probably Hartsoe too if he doesnāt get a scholarship. And probably more with the probable coaching change after 2025.
Why doesnāt it work? Arenāt there plenty of teams that return significant production year over year even in the current environment?
Dude looksā¦old.
I mean, thereās a buckyās on the Florence end of that drive. What other reason do you need to return closer to home? And seriously though itās a straight shot down i-20 and 70 speed limit the whole way. I do that stretch in just over an hour. Im in DC but my family is from Columbia so done it often.
To argue the other side though, about half way between columbia and florence theres some sort of hog slaughtering thing or manure plantā¦i dont know what it is, but it smells awful, like dead animals, and itās enough to make you want to not do that drive
Brady Wilson committed
Had hoped that was the secret behind why Austin Gentle so quickly picked Memphis but didnāt want to jinx it.
BOOM!!!
Iāve made the drive from where his HS is to the Vista probably 30 times during a merger I was working on pre-pandemic. Most boring 80 minutes anywhere.
Regardless, the kid loved the Thorterback thing and the video game numbers that Perkins and Armstrong were putting up. The staff felt very good about keeping him, until there was no staff.
Babers couldnāt promise him the same things that Bronco could.
And then USC hired a new OC (Loggains) a few weeks before early signing day, and he talked Sellers into flipping from Syracuse.
Sellers is absolutely going to hate their new OC Mike Shula though. Good luck with thatā¦.
Outside of Morris, this is easily my favorite commit of the offseason
Sorry if itās already been mentioned but supposedly weāre hosting Hunter Osborne for a visit this week. 4 star DL from Bama, would have 3 to play.
One other part I liked was the rule of thumb of target value for your QB is about 100k per win.
My quick schollie math has us around 8 spots left, could be a little more or less depending upon late decisions from current players (i.e. - any players who hit the Portal in the next 8 days, or maybe someone like Jahmeer Carter wants to petition for a 6th year given the 2022 tragedy), and maybe whether we have a scholarship punter (Sparks is in the ā2022 tragedy waiver boatā as well; could also see sophomore Elijah Slibeck win the job and get rewarded, or maybe grab one in the Portal as well).
ANYWAY. Resetting after 8 transfer commits this past week, going in to a last few busy days before things get quiet for Christmas, hereās where I see remaining Portal target needs:
QB: 0. Pickups of SMUās Chandler Morris (projected starter) and Nebraskaās Daniel Kaelin (depth competition) give us 5 scholarship QBs (plus PWO Brosterhouse), the most weāve carried since 2016.
RB: 0-1. NC Centralās JāMari Taylor gives us a fifth scholarship RB (plus PWO Griese), which is about the usual load we carry for our 1-back offense. Staff seems high on Xavier Brown and Noah Vaughn to step up. If we take another, itās a ātoo good to pass upā type. Maybe reevaluate in the post-Spring cycle; easier to plug-and-play RBs in the summer.
WR: 1-2. Malachiās departure leaves us missing obvious big WR-X type possession targets, and none of our returners have stood out aside from Trell Harris (looked great in 4 games, but injured the other 8). Maybe add one big guy this winter then round out the room in the post-Spring cycle.
TE: 0. With Sage Ennis returning, weāve got 7 on scholarship which is a ton, more than enough to even run a lot of 12 (2-TE) sets. Twitty should step up into the primary receiving weapon role, with incumbents Gay, Kirby, and Rogers battling for depth.
OL: 1-2. Brady Wilson arrives as next yearās center and Metcalf and Sipe are back for 6th years to provide interior depth, but we still need a sure-thing Right Side option (Boley, Steen, and Josey ideally the other starters); itās easy to peg the need as a RG but the right RT could slide Steen inside to Guard). Weāre at 16 'ships which is low-ish but not by much. Staff will focus down the winter stretch on one last big pull, then maybe target depth guys after spring.
DL: 1-2. Weāre at 12 'ships (plus promising PWO DE Koudelka) unless Jahmeer comes back to make it 13. Running a 4-2 front we want to be deeper on the line; staff has carried 16 and 17 the last two seasons. DT less of a priority now with Fresno State transfer Jacob Holmes reinforcing Britton and Hammond. DE got a boost from Elon edge rusher Cazeem Moore, but a starting SDE is still a need; big gap on this roster right now. Would ideally get 2 for depth purposes.
LB: 1-2. The LB room is beat up, right now we only have 6 'ships used and I wonder how many of those guys will be good for spring ball. At a bare minimum need one 2-Deep level guy to play next to Kam (dear Lord let him stay), and let McDonald and Bracey work back from injury and Danley grow into an LB2 role. (Update! Maddox Marcellus on board, all conference in the FCS as a sophomore, two years eligibility remaining)
DB: 1-2. Two good pickups thus far in safety Devin Neal (Louisville) and corner JaāSon Prevard (Morgan State) but still feel light at only 15 total on scholarship, five of whom are in a big freshman class. Could add another corner and safety this cycle, hard to tell which is the more pressing need, though could also see this get addressed in the Spring instead.
Summary
| Position | Remaining Need |
|---|---|
| QB | 0 |
| RB | 0-1 |
| WR | 1-2 |
| TE | 0 |
| OL | 1-2 |
| DL | 1-2 |
| LB | 1-2 |
| DB | 1-2 |
Ranking the remaining needs: (1a) SDE, (1b) RG/RT, (3) WR-X, (4) Will, (5) DB
Really appreciate your coverage of this stuff @StLouHoo
Itās remarkable how much I canāt quit football. I fell in love with the (Welsh-era) football team as a kid, long before I fell in love with UVA hoops (which really didnāt start until I got to Grounds), even though basketball was the sport I played. Still have new hope for the football roster each offseason despite the meat grinder of the last 15-20 years.