I donât think recruits like Ament look at PT⌠they expect to play regardless of whoâs there
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But this is where I disagree. When Dre was playing in ACC Tourney as freshman redshirt the Warriors GM directly said to me (when I asked why the F he was there) âDeAndre Hunterâ
I dont see how a Philly guy who was real real in HS was under the radar then drafted 4
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A scout coming to watch a talented player with upside who has had a good season as a sixth man for a #1 overall seed - that player comes back for another year and gets drafted in the lottery after winning a natty isnât the same thing as a player who is a top 3 overall prospect in college basketball and is being talked about as a potential #1-#2 overall in next yearâs draft before he even steps foot on a college floor.
Thereâs a big difference in the national awareness of those two players at the high school level and the profile they bring as a recruit not as a talented guy who developed into a star (even if we think the development is overstated because he was slept on a bit⌠he was still slept on).
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Well Taine and Warley ARE both graduating, and I really donât think Ament is looking at Andrew Rohde with any trepidation.
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I love you and beyond appreciate you for what you show all of us on Cuts. But I profoundly disagree with your take here
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Same on the love⌠but in what way do you disagree?
The distinction that Iâm making is the national awareness/assessment of a player before they reach a program and what that means as they enter it. That doesnât mean some people in the know about Hunter didnât have high hopes for what he could become.
Are you arguing that Hunter and Ament are the same in that way or that it doesnât matter how highly regarded they were coming in because of how it ended up with Hunter?
I disagree with both points but donât think the first is defensible while the second would be a pretty interesting discussion.
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It sounds like:
@DFresh11 is saying that Hunterâs success shows that we can compete in recruitments for a player of Amentâs caliber.
And @Cuts_from_The_Corner is saying that landing Ament would show that we can compete in recruitments for a player of Amentâs caliber.
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And @Kamikaze_Hoo is saying what we are trying to say. Thank you
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In 2015 we beat Notre Dame, Miami, Villanova, Penn State, Arkansas, and Maryland out for Hunter. Certainly a very respectable level of competition, but at that point Jay Wright was still a year away from winning his first national championship and the rest certainly werenât anywhere near Blue Blood territory.
At the time, he was ranked 107th in the 247 composite when he pledged in September:
Ament, however, has already exploded into consensus 5-star and the discussion for one-and-done Lottery Pick status. The competition is Kentucky, UConn, Duke, and UNC.
I donât see how anyone can consider these recruitments comparable unless theyâre either just trolling or have completely forgotten all the pertinent details of Hunterâs recruitment nine years ago.
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I love ya Fresh. But I feel like you changed the conversation entirely and Iâm a little confused at what youâre trying to say lol.
I think all @Cuts_from_The_Corner is saying is that this would be the best recruitment win in the Bennett era. That doesnât mean heâll necessarily have the impact that Dre did (but he certainly could).
Deandre Hunter is the most talented player and NBA prospect that Bennett has coached(outside of maybe Trey but thatâs irrelevant). But that doesnât mean it was the biggest recruiting win.
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Kind of. I think Fresh and I are defining caliber differently.
Iâm saying that itâs harder to land the 5-star recruit everyoneâs after than the highly talented player coming off of the injury or the mid-high 4-star who has big upside. We havenât landed the former under CTB while we land the latter all of the time (and sometimes they turn into first round draft picks and, in Hunterâs case, a top 5 pick). I think Fresh is locked into the idea that Hunter is just as talented as Ament⌠which isnât what Iâm debating⌠itâs that the national profile of Ament as a recruit and the expectations for his ability to be drafted and timeline to the league before he joins a program are much, much higher.
Most recruits know that weâve had some success developing guys for the league over a couple of seasons (or transfers with some experience like TMIII more quickly - even though he was still initially expected to redshirt).
What would be a new wrinkle to the programâs narrative would be the ability to win that recruiting battle for a player like Ament and then to see how he does. Having him come here, play well, and then go pro after a season (especially if he is a top 1-3 pick) would be a different kind of feather in our hat under a different timeline.
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I think I am generally not a big believer in stars and rankings of guys etc is all. Plenty of misses by the people that rank players
F me now I gotta deep dive on Ament
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Ament vs. Jarin Stevenson. To me, no question. Ament has a bigger bag, shows up (vs. fades) when the lights are on. Both are incredibly talented.
Jarin got caught by the early hype train and was over-rated (and he may grow to be great).
Ament may be too highly rated at 3 overall, but man that kid has talent and plays hard.
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Itâs all about expectation. Ament is an expected one and done vs. most of our recruits who are aspirational NBA players. The hype is real right now - Jamie Shaw just wrote that heâs the only guy he could see challenging Dybantsa for the #1 overall pick. And that MAY be overblown hype⌠but the hype itself is the point re: what can UVa do for a player with that kind of hype.
If youâre player like that, thereâs a real question of, âcan UVa showcase me enough through offensive opportunity and playing time to achieve that goal (or at least top 3-5ish) after just one season?â
Personally, I think the answer is yes, but Iâm not sure. We havenât really seen CTB have to get comfortable with a freshman on a timeline thatâs, practically speaking, being imposed on the program externally. But thatâs why I think it would be valuable in a different way to get the opportunity to answer those questions.
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For Ament, itâs a business decision. Once a guy in his position has internalized not just the possibility but the likelihood of having a 1-and-done, or even 2-and-done, path, then the recruitment becomes all about maximizing the Draft opportunity.
The #5 pick in this yearâs draft is making $8.3mm/yr. #15 is making $4.2mm/yr. #25 is making $2.7mm/yr.
Add inflation over that, and multiply it over a ~4-year contract, and youâre talking millions, if not ten million or more, being at stake.
Ament is now in that group of elite prospects who have to weigh risks to his seemingly-inevitable draft stock. Taking off your Wahoo hat, if you had a son with that kind of upside, would you send him to play for a coach whoâs never had a one-and-done nor shepherded a consensus 5-star to the Lottery?
It was exactly the calculus I imagine went on in the Stevenson camp last summer, and he picked Nate Oates whoâd just one-and-doneâd Noah Clowney and Brandon Miller over Bennett who (at the time) had never had anyone go faster than 3 years. Now yeah, we got Dunn there in 2, but thatâs still just different enough that it introduces uncertainty.
Working in our favor: Neither Mark Pope at UK or Hubie Davis at UNC have any relevant one-and-done success stories to sell either; all they can do is point to the pedigrees of their predecessors. But Duke and UConn sure can. Yeah neither Hurley nor Scheyer have dozens of 1ADs to point to (not like K or Calipari did), but they do have some, and we still donât.
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We also have one other benefit and thatâs that his family can come to every game. If heâs an NBA star traveling the globe this might be his last ânormalâ year.
We also have a little more roster certainty which could be a positive? iMac + Buchanan + Power + Saunders is a nice core returning group to come plug into.
But there is still 0% chance he comes to uva.
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If the decision is made wisely, the question should be: how many potential one and dones have joined your program and NOT become one and dones versus how many expected have become one and dones? Thatâs more instructive and useful than âhow many one and dones have you had.â In other words, whatâs your success rate rather than whatâs the raw number.
The risk at Duke is join the cadre of guys who thought theyâd be one and dones but didnât pan out. The risk at Virginia (or the others) is that we havenât had the chance to see this model play out.
Realistically, though, how do we think agents are doing this calculation? Are agents who use âout of the box thinkingâ on their website thinking in those terms? Probably not.
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If perception is a reality in these instances, perhaps we should be more concerned with exits as opposed to entrances. A better indicator of Virginiaâs place in the world of college basketball might be the number of players drafted, and their positions in the draft, by NBA teams rather than the hyped up rankings of high school players who have yet to play in a collegiate contest. While recruiting is absolutely essential to success, all recruiting does remain a crap shoot.
Thatâs fair. Guess my point though is that the general public cares about it (whether thatâs fair or not).
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Another relative point is competition to be âshowcasedâ. How many other 5 stars or highly rated transfers will Duke UConn etc be brining in? He has to factor that in. The number 13 player in the class will be getting the same promises from the blue bloods that he will. Yes the blue bloods will be able to brand and market him better but will they really be able to showcase him more on the court. Heck, we turned a horrific offensive player into a first rounder. Would Duke or UK have done thatâŚ.?
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