šŸ€ Home Cooking/Road Woes

Men's Basketball
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Iā€™ve been working up some numbers and stats to throw in for our upcoming game previews, but I found some things in my deep dive that I figured were worth throwing out in here first for everyone to see and discuss. First off, efficiency numbers from bart torvik which I think most here may already have a decent idea aboutā€¦

UVA at JPJ: #8 Overall, #76 Offense and #5 Defense

Away and Neutral games: #253 Overall, #325 Offense and #94 Defense

Away games only: #332 Overall, #338 Offense and #220 Defense

Also worth noting that since December 16th (first game out of exam break) our Wahoos are:
#222 Overall, #302 Offense and #118 Defense

So what is causing such crazy splits? The first thing I did was look at shooting splits and these numbers may be surprisingā€¦

Andrew Rohde for example, has hit 33.3% of his attempts while in JPJ on 3.8 attempts per game. This is not a great number but look at what he does on the roadā€¦He is still attempting over 3 three pointers (3.4), but is hitting a very dismal 11.8%.

Isaac McKneely is another example of this. At home, heā€™s hitting 53.4% on 5.8 attempts per game. Outside of JPJ heā€™s hitting just 33.3% on 4.2 attempts per game. Not only is he taking 1.6 less attempts per but heā€™s also hitting 20% less.

Graduate transfer Jake Groves is the other player whose splits are worth looking at. Groves hits 38.2% on 3.1 attempts from three at home. On the road his percentage actually rises considerably to 55.6%, but he is only attempting 1.8 threes a game.

For this team to have anywhere near the level of success they and we as fans all aspire for, these three guys numbers in particular have to be better. Long term, Andrew and Isaacā€™s numbers are not extremely concerning as they have multiple years of eligibility remaining. But for this season they have to be able to find a balance between their production levels. Isaac needs to hunt his shot more on the road while Andrew has to try and get his production to level off evenly no matter where heā€™s playing. Jakes situation is the one that needs the most change IMO. He absolutely needs to be getting more attempts in these road contests.

Three-point shooting isnā€™t everything, but in todayā€™s game itā€™s extremely important for not just the points you get from the makes but also for the floor spacing it provides. To keep teams honest you almost have to have multiple outside threats on the court and these three guys are the main ones we have.

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I wonder if we can use pre ND home numbers based on what has happened in the last couple weeks. We beat a bad Lou team at home but have been horrible in the other games and I wonder how our confidence level (even at home) will be moving forward. I think the VT game will show us a lot.

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The home/road stuff is real, no doubt, but itā€™s also highly cupcake tilted at this point. Iā€™d like to think MEAC teams wouldnā€™t be blowing us out in their gymsā€¦. Iā€™m not sure itā€™s correct. But I like to think it.

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Oh yeah theyā€™ve forsure played some cupcakes at home, but for the purpose of the numbers it didnā€™t feel right to only include P5 stats. Especially when all 3 of our P5 home games were double digit winsā€¦

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So we need to get Groves 10 3 pt attempts per road game then?

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Last time UVA lost at JPJ to a non-top 5(?) team was the ā€˜22 season.

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10 might be a little heavy but 3-5 per game would be great. I personally wouldnā€™t complain about him getting 5 per game.

Going to edit to expand on thisā€¦ no one is going to get 10 looks a game in our system. Kyle Guy averaged 7.4 three point attempts our championship season, for example.

But I think we can all agree there have been moments where we thought one of these 3 specifically shouldā€™ve taken the open (or semi-open) look and they head faked and stepped in. Really just want to see these guys shoot with confidence without thinking about it.

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I just donā€™t get it ā€¦ we never ever had to tell one of our 3 best shooters to shootā€¦ in fact our coach would take you out for failing to take a shot you had the green light forā€¦ which - talk about instilling confidence??? One year our starting 5 were all over 38% from 3. (Old college line)
Such a joyful and liberating way to play. That team scored 100 or more 15 times. lol

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Other coaches take guys out when they pass up open shots. We take guys out when they turn it over. And we leave guys in when they pass up good shots for bad shots.

Relatedly, we kind of have a few options with RD offensively, but we seem to pick the ones where he sits out on the perimeter a lot. If we are gonna do that, he HAS TO SHOOT when open. Would probably help him if that was a rule. Heck, make it a rule for everyone, so he doesnā€™t feel like itā€™s directed at him. Then, when he gets it out there, he doesnā€™t have to think. Just shoot.

Or we could run different sets where heā€™s not getting the ball on the perimeter in a stationary position.

But what we are doing now ā€” running stuff where he sits on the perimeter, and gets the ball when heā€™s stationary, is offensive poison (among the other offensive poisons we have).

Still finishing the nut punch rewatch, and damn, that stupid Carr slip to the hoop out of a timeout got us 3x in the first half.

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