Ryan Odom’s debut season at Virginia was an immediate success: he restocked the larder with portal talent and led the team to a 30-6 record, including a second-place ACC finish and Virginia’s first win in the NCAA Tournament since they hoisted the trophy in 2019. And he’s been awarded a contract extension for his labors. This year, Odom returns most of his starting lineup: Thijs De Ridder, Chance Mallory, Johann Grünloh, and Sam Lewis all played over 20 minutes per game last season. In the portal era, that level of continuity is remarkable. Continuity alone is reason to believe Odom will continue his success. But he also brought in some underrated additions.
POINT GUARD
At point guard, Chance Mallory is the man. His freshman season was impressive: 3.4 assists, 3.7 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and 9 crafty points in 24 minutes per game. And he’s just getting started. He’ll need to build his endurance to increase from 24 to 30+ minutes per game at his blistering pace – and hopefully improve a little on his shooting (34% from deep). Virginia needs Mallory to play 30+ minutes because his only backup is transfer Jan Vide, a Slovenian from Loyola Marymount (and formerly UCLA) with likely two years of eligibility remaining.
Vide is a 6’6” point guard who can use his size to create mismatches, but he’s no shooter (32% from deep), turns the ball over a lot, and can’t defend quicker guards. He averaged 12 points, 4 assists, and 3 rebounds for a crappy Lions squad last season. Vide was a highly touted four star prospect coming out of high school who also starred on Slovenia’s youth national team, but was quickly exposed at UCLA and needed the step down to Loyola Marymount. Vide is a poor man’s Dallin Hall: a large, physical on-ball guard without any elite skills but with the veteran savvy to do just enough on both ends of the floor to keep opponents honest while Mallory gets a breather. It remains to be seen how often Odom, who likes to have multiple ballhandlers on the floor, plays Mallory and Vide together the way he did with Mallory and Hall.
CENTER
Johann Grünloh seized the starting center position from the moment he arrived in Charlottesville last year. He’s a game-changer on both ends of the floor: he’s a shot-blocker that few want to challenge and, on offense, has the soft hands to finish around the rim and his floor-stretching shooting (35% from deep) can distort the defense when he steps away from the paint. He averaged 7 points in 21 minutes per game last season, but his offense is still improving; he had nine games where he scored in double digits. Now in his second of a possible three years in college basketball, he’s spent the offseason working on his strength and conditioning, which was a real weakness last season. A stronger Grünloh with better endurance is a scary prospect for Virginia’s opponents.
Grünloh’s backup is incoming four-star freshman Favour Ibe, a 7’1” Nigerian who played high school ball in Maryland. Ibe is raw, but he has massive physical upside and, while no Ugo Onyenso, offers tough rim protection from day one. He’s a physical 235 pounds and can play through contact, and he’s a high-motor guy who played a remarkable 30+ minutes per game in high school. His offense is a work in progress, but he’ll play off the bench immediately.
Virginia fans are spoiled: another season with two seven-footers patrolling the paint.
FORWARD
Thijs De Ridder, the 23-year-old Belgian Beast, put Virginia on his back last season. He led the team with16 points and 6 rebounds in 28 minutes per game. He’s a do-it-all whirlwind of a 6’9” forward who forces defenses to defend him everywhere on the floor. Opposing teams either have a plan for De Ridder or a front row seat to watch him demolish them. This season, Virginia will go as far as De Ridder can take them in his last year of eligibility.
Behind De Ridder is… no one. He’ll be backed up by 6’9” Silas Barksdale or 6’8” transfer Kalu Anya from Saint Louis. Both of them are credible rebounders and not much else. The scouting report on both of them: they can’t shoot. Anya shot a disastrous 32% from the free throw line for Saint Louis. It would be a surprise if either of them can contribute anything beyond spot minutes. Only one of them is likely to play much off the bench; Anya’s experience may give him the edge, but Odom knows what he has with Barksdale. Barksdale lacks experience but offers far more upside. Anya played at Brown for two seasons followed by one at St. Louis, and then St. Louis shockingly asked their leader in rebounds, steals, and blocks to redshirt his senior season, so Anya is a year removed from competitive basketball. Anya has just one year of eligibility and Barksdale has three.
De Ridder needs to stay healthy – and stay on the floor – to keep those two parked on the bench where they belong. In 15 of Virginia’s 36 games last season, De Ridder committed three or more fouls, and he fouled out of three of those games. De Ridder needs to eliminate the silly late fouls when he’s beaten.
WING
Call them small forwards, wings, or shooting guards, but Virginia has the luxury of four 6’6”ish shooters.
Sam Lewis, of course, returns to reprise his role as a deadly sniper who played 25 minutes per game and scored 11 points on 40% shooting from deep. Lewis is being asked to expand his repertoire to attack the basket more aggressively. He’s an obvious starter. With De Ridder, Mallory, Grünloh, and Lewis written in ink in the starting lineup with Jan Vide and Favour Ibe in clear roles off the bench, Odom still needs to fill the spots vacated by the departures of Malik Thomas and Jacari White.
Enter Jurian Dixon, the latest transfer from the ‘Anteater Pipeline’, a 6’5” three-level scorer who shot 38% from deep last season. Dixon was UC Irvine’s leading scorer with 16 points in 30 minutes per game. He doesn’t have the best handle, but he can create his own shot on occasion and attack the basket when his shot isn’t dropping. And he’s a decent, but not great, perimeter defender.
Dixon was brought in to fill Malik Thomas’ shoes. Offensively, Thomas was a powerful scorer who could play through contact but sometimes played out of control, while Dixon is a more polished offensive player and a better shooter. Slight edge to Dixon. Defensively, Thomas became a better defender at Virginia who could stay in front of opponents. Dixon has the physical tools to be a good perimeter defender with his lateral quickness and active hands, but he’s been an inconsistent defender. Slight edge to Thomas. But it seems clear that Dixon is the leading contender for the starting role.
Nolan Adekunle is a 24-year-old 6’6” German who’s been playing professionally since he was 17. He’s rugged and physical, having played forward for most of his career. He scored 8 points and snagged 4 rebounds per game last season. He projects as a big physical Justin Anderson-like 3&D wing: he shoots 40% from deep, rebounds with physicality, and defends the opponent’s best perimeter threat. But Adekunle plays within himself and doesn’t need the ball in his hands to contribute; he only attempted about three three-pointers per game last season. Critics note that he’s often too passive: he just parks in the corner and waits for someone to pass him the ball like Isaac McKneely. But Virginia has a lot of weapons and doesn’t need another ball-dominant guard with options like De Ridder, Grünloh, and Lewis on the floor, and Adekunle can contribute a lot without the ball.
Christian Harmon, a 6’6” transfer from Arkansas State, led his team last season with 13 points per game, including 2.6 three pointers per game, in 28 minutes. He arrives as an aggressive high-volume shooter who hunts his own shot, attempting over 8 three pointers per game last season and hitting 35% of them. He played two years at Gulf Coast State before Arkansas State, so he’s in his fourth year of college basketball and will have two years of eligibility at Virginia. Harmon’s weaknesses, including his propensity for turnovers and his lackluster defense, could limit his playing time. He’s missing some practice because of a foot injury but should be available by October.
WILD CARD
Most prognosticators think Dixon, Adekunle, and Harmon are fighting each other for roles and minutes on the perimeter behind Sam Lewis. What if they’re all wrong?
It is possible that Odom intends to use Adekunle as a backup to De Ridder. Remember, Virginia had to pay a transfer fee to Adekunle’s German team to get him, and he only has one year of eligibility. And Odom bought him after he had assembled the rest of the team. You don’t make that kind of investment in a one-year rental unless you have a plan for him.
Obviously, Adekunle is no De Ridder. But he can defend 2-4 better than De Ridder – and without fear of fouling – which could be an effective change of pace for 15 minutes per game. And the question isn’t, “Can Adekunle replace De Ridder?” Offensively, he can’t. But he only needs to be a better all-around option than Anya or Barksdale. Last season, 6’7” Devin Tillis backed up De Ridder, playing 16 minutes per game and chipping in 4 points and 3 rebounds on 38% shooting from deep, which seems like a more-than-achievable contribution from the undersized Adekunle. And Adekunle is a better defender than Tillis even against bigger players. This would only work, of course, if Adekunle can play far more aggressively on the offensive end, including in transition, so Virginia’s offense doesn’t go cold anytime De Ridder is on the bench. Big if.
PROJECTED DEPTH CHART
PG Chance Mallory /// Jan Vide
C Johann Grünloh /// Favour Ibe
F Thijs De Ridder
Wing Sam Lewis /// Nolan Adekunle
SG Jurian Dixon /// Christian Harmon
This nine-deep lineup leaves Kalu Anya, Silas Barksdale, Elijah Gertrude, Martin Carrere, and Carter Lang buried on the bench.
STRENGTHS
Virginia has five major advantages this season: size, depth, physicality, experience, and continuity.
The nine-deep includes two seven-footers, six players at 6’5” or above, and Chance Mallory. They’re big. And they’ve got some real physicality with rugged players like De Ridder, Adekunle, Lewis, Vide, Ibe – and even the 5’9” Mallory.
This squad boasts years of experience in college and professional Euro basketball – and the physical maturity of 22-year-olds. When Virginia starts their ACC slate in January, the average age of their nine-deep contributors will be 22 because five of those nine players (Mallory, Lewis, De Ridder, Vide, and Harmon) have January birthdays. Only two players, including Chance Mallory and incoming first year Favour Ibe, won’t be of legal drinking age. Surprisingly, despite starting his second season, Mallory remains the youngest player on the floor because Ibe is already 20 years old. By January, Nolan Adekunle and Thijs De Ridder will be 24 and Christian Harmon will be 23. That’s a ton of individual experience.
But they also have experience playing together in Odom’s system. With four starters returning, Virginia promises to start the season with real cohesion on both ends of the floor. Preseason rankings reflect that continuity; Virginia is ranked in the Top 20 in most preseason rankings.
Virginia meets #10 Arkansas on November 8th in Washington DC, #19 Kentucky on December 2nd in Charlottesville, and #5 UConn on December 20th in Madison Square Garden. That looks like a murderous out-of-conference schedule – but Virginia may well be the murderers. Arkansas only has one returning player expected to start. Same with Kentucky. Uconn has two. All three of those teams boast real talent, but they have none of Virginia’s continuity. That may not matter by March, but in November and December it will be a factor in those matchups. If Virginia wins two of those three games (and takes care of business in the lightweight portion of their OOC schedule), they’ll likely enter January as a Top 10 team. If they win all three and enter January undefeated, they’ll be Top 5.
WEAKNESSES
First, Virginia is deep, but can only go as far as De Ridder and Grünloh can take them. Those two are the core of the team and any extended absence would be disastrous.
Second, Virginia is not a highly athletic team; they have few players who can create their own shot or attack the rim off the dribble. And while Virginia’s talent is strong for college basketball, they’re not elite. None of their players are projected NBA draft picks. Contrast that with their three OOC opponents in Arkansas, Kentucky, and UConn, who collectively have nine players who are currently on the NBA draft radar as potential first round picks, including Arkansas’s Jordan Smith Jr. who is widely considered a lottery pick. And among Virginia’s ACC opponents, teams like Duke, North Carolina, and Louisville also have elite talent drawing NBA attention.
Virginia’s lack of athleticism and talent gap may put a ceiling on the team.
Vide’s going to bring back the “backup dribble”. It was a weapon that was missing on last year’s team.