It’s a new age for college basketball: millionaire players with unrestricted free agency, annual near-total roster turnover, zero long-term development, little high school recruiting, and the arrival of mature professional players into the college ranks. The age of the student athlete, long on life support, is dead. Players are well-paid employees with a job to do in a multi-billion-dollar business. Until Congress takes action, this is the way.
Virginia enters this era while also replacing a coach and therefore faced a choice: either attempt to lure players into a new system with all new coaches based on the quality of a Virginia education, or just back up the Brinks truck and buy the best players available.
Virginia, happily, chose the latter, and Coach Odom used his blank check to great effect. NBA teams spend about 50% of their revenue on their players; Virginia basketball generates about $20M annually (a murky number, no doubt, because it doesn’t include coerced ‘donations’ to VAF from ticketholders), so a “fair” share would be $10M in player payroll. Virginia is paying far more than that, because, of course, those salaries are not coming from their revenue. Outsiders are funding the players through NIL which has morphed into simple pay-to-play. As a result, Virginia could spend more on player salaries than they generate in revenue, which is a remarkable development.
But because of that spending, Virginia boasts the most experienced (likely) starting lineup in the entire one hundred and twenty year history of Virginia basketball, including one fourth-year senior, two fifth-year seniors, and two professional European players, one with four years of experience and one with five. The likely starters include Dallin Hall at point guard, guards Malik Thomas and Jacari White, forward Thijs De Ridder, and center Johann Grünloh. Average age? 22.
On paper, this is a dynamic, multidimensional offensive team with multiple elite shooters who can also get to the basket. However, in a break from the Bennett era, they do not shine quite as brightly on the defensive end of the court.
Meet Your New Hoos
Dallin Hall
PG Dallin Hall is a transfer from BYU where he played for three years, although his playing time dropped last season to about 25 minutes per game from 30 as a sophomore with the arrival of Egor Demin, a projected lottery pick in this year’s NBA draft. Hall is a steady, experienced distributor with good size at 6’4” who will shoot if left open and can get to the basket. Hall averaged about 7 points per game last season, but he’s at Virginia to run the offense with his 2.6 assist-to-turnover ratio, not fill buckets. He’s got great vision and passes well. And he thrives in a fast-paced offense.
However, he’s not a great ballhandler and struggles with pressure. He’s not a great shooter either, hitting about 35% from deep but only 60% from the charity stripe. Defensively, he’s not athletic or quick enough to bother opposing point guards. Talent-wise, Hall ranks as a below-average ACC point guard, but he brings needed experience in high-level basketball and fits the rest of the roster that Odom has constructed.
Malik Thomas
Malik Thomas is an elite combo guard with good size at a solidly-built 6’4” 200. He averaged 20 points per game and shot 40% from deep for San Francisco. He’s a fifth-year graduate transfer because of a questionable NCAA waiver: he played 9 games as a freshman and wasn’t injured, which should be disqualifying, but in this ‘anything goes’ era, he was given a waiver for a fifth year anyway. A former Gatorade Player of the Year in California, Thomas played sparingly for two years at USC and then spent two years at San Francisco, where he really blossomed against a lower level of competition.
Thomas was a prized transfer target because of his electrifying offense: he’s a dynamic three-level scorer. He’s the guy who wants the ball in his hands with the game on the line, a quality Virginia has lacked recently. But Thomas isn’t an explosive athlete and, while he has the tools, he isn’t an elite defender. If he hopes to play in the NBA, he needs to show he can run the point because he’s too small to play the 2 at the next level, so Coach Odom may have promised him some ballhandling time – along with a big bag of cash – to entice him to cross the country.
Thomas offers all-ACC potential and will be the straw that stirs Virginia’s Mai Tai.
Jacari White
Jacari White is a lockdown perimeter defender that Tony Bennett would love, and, as a cherry on top, White shot 40% from deep last season. White is a versatile guard, 6’3” and athletic, who can shoot and get to the basket, averaging 17 points per game for North Dakota State last year. He’s a strong on-ball defender and, in a pinch, can handle the ball. He has improved every year and now he’s stepping up to high-level competition. White spent one year in a Florida JUCO before three years at North Dakota State, so while classified as a senior, he’s in his fifth year of college ball. His distinctive bald head stands out on the court.
Thijs De Ridder
Thijs (pronounced “Th-ice”) De Ridder is a 22-year-old Belgian who played professionally for five years, the last two for a top team in Spain. Last season, his team won the FIBA Europe Cup, with De Ridder averaging 10 points in 20 minutes per game. De Ridder is a physical 6’7” 210 pound wing with a 7 foot wingspan who can shoot and score. He’s not the greatest athlete or defender, but he’s a crafty player with a full offensive toolkit and, with his height and shooting ability, he’s an NBA prospect (albeit marginally). The arrival of De Ridder fundamentally changes Virginia’s prospects because he cannot be left alone, creating space for White and Thomas to shoot and slash.
Johann Grünloh
Johann Grünloh is a 6’11” 19-year-old German with a modern NBA big man game: a good set of offensive skills around the basket, and he can step out and shoot threes at a 35% clip. Grünloh has played four years of professional German basketball and started all 33 games last season for Germany’s RASTA Vechta with former Hoo Jayden Gardner, averaging 8.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks per game. He moves well and should pair effectively with Dallin Hall on high ball screens. Grünloh projected as a late second-round pick in this year’s NBA draft but chose to come to Charlottesville instead in hopes of improving his draft prospects.
Grünloh has the height but he’s not a bully in the paint. He’s a scrawny 6’11”, making him more of a finesse stretch four than a banger, but he once blocked 8 shots in a game, so he uses his size and seven-foot wingspan effectively. If he can get stronger and improve his shooting, he’ll only spend one year in Charlottesville before the NBA snaps him up.
Starters’ Outlook
Collectively, these five players have 21 years of basketball experience at 9 programs before they even suit up for Virginia. They’re experienced, they’re mature, and they’re talented. Except for maybe Isaac McKneely, Coach Odom has upgraded every position. Virginia donors have ponied up the cash to buy Coach Odom a team that can compete near the top of the ACC. Make no mistake about it, this is an expensive collection of mercenaries. But they’re one-year rentals: more than likely, none of them will wear a Virginia uniform next year. Hall, Thomas, and White will have exhausted their eligibility, and De Ridder and Grünloh have NBA aspirations. It’s a win-now team, and, on paper, this is a legitimate Top 25 starting lineup. If Odom can build a cohesive team out of them in the next six months, they’ll go far.
Coach Odom’s offense is flexible; unlike Tony Bennett, Odom adapts his approach to his players rather than rigidly demanding they conform to his system. With the talent available, Odom will be able to push his preferred approach to the extreme: quick ball movement, attacking in transition, and moving the ball to find open threes or lanes to the basket. And they will be bombing threes.
With threats like Thomas, White, and De Ridder spreading the floor and Hall and Grünloh executing ball screens, they’ll be very difficult to stop. But they’re going to need to put the ball in the basket because they don’t project as a strong defensive unit. Embrace the pace? Not with this team. Odom needs to stomp on the gas pedal.
The Bench
Odom’s inaugural Virginia squad boasts an experienced bench with plug-and-play roleplayers at every position, allowing Odom to play nine deep as needed. Four bench players, including one fifth year, two fourth years, and one first year, are expected to make major contributions. Talented, experienced, and deep, Virginia’s roster is well constructed. College basketball now allows 15 scholarship players, but Odom seems comfortable with the 12 he has (or 13 if he gives Carter Lang a scholarship) because he has no real minutes available and there is little value in adding developmental players given the current college basketball landscape. If you can’t keep them, why waste the effort developing them?
Oganna Onyenso
Oganna Onyenso is a 6’11” Nigerian rim protector in his last year of high-level college ball after two years at Kentucky and one at Kansas State. With his size and 7 foot 5 inch wingspan, he’s an elite shot blocker. But he’s a career backup who averaged 3 points in 10 minutes per game in his previous stops because, despite his athleticism, he’s raw and passive offensively and undisciplined defensively. He’ll back up Grünloh at center and should play at least 10 minutes per game.
Sam Lewis
Sam Lewis is a 6’6” wing who shot 44% from deep last season at Toledo on decent volume at 4 attempts per game. Toledo played fast and Lewis was their leading scorer at 16 points per game. So how is a versatile 6’6” wing who shoots 44% from deep only ranked as the 100th-best transfer in the NCAA? He was atrocious defensively, he played for a bad 15-loss Toledo team against low-level competition, and Toledo played small, so Lewis was asked to defend bigger players and was often exposed. If he can improve defensively and adjust to the rigors of ACC play, he’ll get plenty of playing time for his shooting alone. Lewis has two years of eligibility remaining.
Devin Tillis
Devin Tillis is a 6’6” fifth-year forward who played three years as an Anteater at UC Irvine after one year at UNLV. Last season he scored 14 points and collected 8 rebounds in 30 minutes per game. He’s a bit like Jayden Gardner: an undersized but physical forward who won’t get bullied. He’s not too quick and not a great ballhandler, but he’s strong and crafty, and he shot nearly 40% from deep on 3.3 attempts per game. Tillis is a high IQ player but he’s limited by his average physical tools. Still, he’s reportedly a great teammate and, with his experience, should get plenty of opportunities off the bench.
Chance Mallory
Don’t let his height fool you: Chance Mallory is a player. He’s only 5’9,” generously measured, but he’s solidly built. He’s strong with the ball, a pinpoint passer, and a deep shooter with a quick release. And he’s a dogged defender who can harass opponents for 90 feet. And he’s got all the intangibles: he’s a leader, he’s a hard worker, and he doesn’t get rattled. If he were six inches taller, he’d easily be the top point guard recruit in the country. He’ll play off the bench behind Dallin Hall, but don’t be surprised to see his minutes climb as the season progresses. At his height, he’s likely a four-year college player, if Odom can afford to keep him.
The Deep Deep Bench
Silas Barksdale
Silas Barksdale is a four-star recruit who originally signed with Coach Odom at VCU and flipped his commitment to Virginia. He’s a 6’8” 220 forward who played center in high school. Barksdale is an excellent rebounder with soft hands, but the rest of his game is a work in progress. Barring injury, he won’t play much more than mop-up minutes.
Elijah Gertrude
Elijah Gertrude is an unlucky man. An explosive scorer and four-star recruit, he missed his senior year in high school due to injury. He played sparingly in his first year at Virginia and then missed his second year entirely due to an unfortunate scooter accident. He stands as the only player on the roster who has played a game in a Virginia uniform. He’s currently restricted from contact as his recovery progresses.
A healthy Gertrude would thrive in Odom’s fast dynamic offense, but he is so far removed from competitive basketball that his contributions this season are impossible to guess.
Carter Lang
Carter Lang is a 6’9” forward who played his freshman year at Vanderbilt, earning seven starts and averaging 11 minutes per game but with little to show for it in the box score. Lang decided to move back home to Charlottesville to accept a walk-on role from Virginia. Broad and sturdy, he’s a rebounder and physical presence in the paint. The former three-star recruit is not particularly athletic or bouncy. He’s not expected to play much, if at all.
Martin Carrere
Carrere a 6’8” French wing who spent his redshirt freshman year at VCU and followed Coach Odom to Virginia. He’s a future stretch four who can shoot. But he’s a spindly 6’8” who needs to gain weight and strength to play ACC ball. Based on his now year-old tape, he’s too slow and ungainly to contribute, but he may have developed during his redshirt year and offer a surprise. Coach Odom knows him well and must see some potential.
Prognosis: Under Pressure
In June, Coach Odom will have this team together and the first order of business will be deciding which language they speak: the roster includes five foreign players, including a Nigerian, a Frenchman, a Belgian, a German, and, of course, a guy from Utah.
Based on talent alone, this is probably the fourth-best roster in the ACC, behind only Duke, North Carolina, and Louisville. Of course, Bart Torvik ranked Virginia as the fourth-most talented roster in the country at the start of last season, and we all know how that worked out. Talent, on paper, is a great starting point, but it’s only a start. Now Odom needs to install his offense and defense and convince these highly paid one-year rentals to play as a team. Offensively, they need to be fast and efficient to overcome their defensive shortcomings. They appear to have the players to do it. Virginia fans will no longer have to endure watching their Hoos pass the ball around the perimeter hoping someone else will shoot like a bad game of Hot Potato. Instead, they’ll have at least three players on the floor at all times with an aggressive attacking mentality.
If Odom is successful, the talent and depth of this well-constructed roster makes Virginia an obvious NCAA tournament team with the potential for a deep run. But the margin for error is slim: Virginia has a soft non-conference slate so they can’t afford too many ACC losses on their tournament resume.
Given their salaries, anything short of an NCAA berth and a first round victory would be a disappointment for this team, inviting chants of “Overpaid” instead of “Overrated.” And given that Odom, like most other coaches in this ‘new normal’, will have another total rebuild next season, falling short could have disastrous long-term implications. Who wants to play for a coach who can’t win with this roster? And who wants to pay for more millionaire players who can’t deliver? Odom is coaching at the highest level now; expectations are high and the pressure is on.
