I’d take 6-6 this year every day of the week and twice on Saturdays.
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Agree on this. Just what happens when new teams and staffs are coming together. That’s why that ODU game gives me heartburn, even though it really shouldn’t.
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Interesting I felt there was a ton of orange and blue glasses wearers on this board, but so far this thread seems to be more grounded and I tend to fall in line with. Bellow is my best Mike Fransecaish (meaning no stats or logic used) schedule rundown.
Richmond - That’s a win
@ Illinois - That’s a win
ODU - That’s a win
@ Cuse - That’s a loss, Dino coaching for his job and is due for a random good season
@ ■■■■ That’s a win
UofL - That’s a win, but I don’t feel confident in it.
@ GT - That’s a loss, short week on the road feels like something fluky happens
Miami - That’s a loss. Not betting against Mario
UNCheat - That’s a loss, feels toss up at best
Pitt - That’s a loss, see above
Coastal - That’s a loss, don’t like their chances to slow down that runaway train
@ Vatech - That’s a loss
Likely a 6-6 team 7-5 is the ceiling with a 4-8 basement possible.
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I’m less worried about the scheme change. Stats gonna be lower but if the defense gets 2 or 3 stops a game it can net out.
I just don’t think this year’s OL will be up to the role of go-to receiver in the red zone when it really counts.
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You can’t plan for that OT to OG redzone special. Gonna dominate the league,
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Spencer Rattler at 3 is absurd. I don’t know that he even belongs on the list.
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I expect the defense to be a little better but what kind of season we have comes down solely on how well the OL plays. I like that the easiest part of the schedule is the early games so they can get some time to hopefully gel together. I wouldn’t even begin to make a prediction as to what our record will be. There are too many unknowns
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I think the fact that our schedule is backloaded is being overlooked. Not to jinx anything, but our first five games should be a breeze. I think that should give the team time to adjust to the new schemes and hopefully give the O-line and defense some time to gel before we enter late October. I also think that most of our difficult games being at home play a big role too. For all the teams shortcomings under Bronco, we had a great record at home during his tenure. If everything falls into place, I honestly believe we could start 7-0 and hopefully be looking at a chance for our first 10 win season in over 30 years. Now of course, we will inexplicably lose to teams we have no business losing to, but such is the life of a UVA football fan.
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Why do you expect the D to be better? Look at the line depth…we have a transfer starting on the edge…then our CBs are no different than the squad last year that couldn’t stop a team when it counted…thank god for our ferocious field goal defense.counting the greenness of the OL I would bet we will flirt with 500 ball throughout the year…heck I wonder if we don’t get smoked by one of our weak OOC gimmes
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Someone mentioned it earlier but Ill could be a trap.
Illinois GT and Cuse all on the road worry me. Those are games that struggling teams on the road can screw up real quickly. Flat environments so hard to get up for 2 of them the coaches will be fighting for their jobs. If you’re a
500 team struggling to gel those are prime spots to have things slip away.
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Is it a trap?
Its always a trap.
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To me those road games will be a good early for Tony Elliott. If we lose those, I am not sure he will be much different from our past coaches (though I’m more positive on Bronco than others here)
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Man, that really is an easy schedule. If I wanted to be hopeful, I’d say if the overall talent level this year is similar to last year, then if the coaching staff has a base level of competence, it ought to be able to improve the D and install the bones of the offensive scheme and keep the play calling simple enough to be successful especially early in the season. I don’t really want to be hopeful though. No upside in it.
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If the OL is passable (especially in pass pro) we will have a good season. I think people are underrating how good our passing attack is. You could argue that its one of the best if not the best once you get outside the traditional powerhouses (Bama, OSU, etc)
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well, we know the pieces are there, but we don’t yet know how good the “attack” (in its totality) is in less of an “air raid” system.
edit: but yeah seems like the OL is the big swing factor. could be a decent season if they can cobble something effective together there. I’ll believe it when I see it.
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This is where my jaded Virginia fandom kicks in. On paper the schedule paired with the returning skill players, and the expectations/potential of this staff a 7-5 record shouldn’t be unreasonable. Honestly at first glance I picked 8 wins when I took logic out of it. However, as a lifelong fan, I know nothing comes easy to Virginia athletics, and they never take the easy path. So TE coming out the gates with a 8-5 record simply can’t happen.
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I think the passing attack was very good last year. I also think it was a little bit gimmicked with the sheer number of attempts. The offense was so unbalanced last year that it became a hindering at points. I’d like to see some balance and more scheme/planning return. In 6ish years I still have no idea what Anai was thinking/planning.
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Reasons for defensive improvement:
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Nick Howell is gone. Cannot overstate how bad (and possibly negligent based off reports that came out over the winter) our defensive coaching was since covid hit.
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Our young defensive players were more highly regarded recruits than the guys they are replacing
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They will actually get to practice against the run this year. From listening to the coaches this offseason I think this was a huge problem for the defense the last couple of seasons. Hard to practice run fits if the offense is passing 70%+ of the time in practice.
We don’t need the defense to be good. Just to go from historically bad to mediocre. 9th best D in the ACC and this team is the oline away from 8 wins.
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I see what you did there…
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