It’s way too early time! (Early 22-23 top 25s)

Anyone know what Torvik had us in the preseason? Just curious if it was in the ballpark of where we ended up.

If I recall correctly, he had us somewhere around 70th I think. For reference, we currently sit at 59th postseason

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He tweaks the model a lot in the offseason (the data changes obviously, but I think the model does, too), but I think high 70s was correct.

This is a great year for this trip, both for development of the younger guys, but also for us fans to have some idea of what to expect of the capabilities of the young guys.
#StreamTheBlueWhiteGame #BanThe20GameSchedule #StreamTheItalyTrip #BonAppetito

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If you add Banchero and Manek we hop up to #1…very optimistic for this season.

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Interesting. I have us at number 5 if Kihei doesn’t return and number 257 if he does.

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What kind of Barolo/Chianti NIL deal do we need to arrange to get all of the Italy games streamed

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If there is one thing we know about this program, it’s that they won’t stream any of the Italy games.

But maybe we can send @chavlicek15 and @DFresh11 to Italy to follow the team and report back. Would be some great Italian roadtrip content.

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Prego! @chavlicek15 played some pro ball in Italy after his UVa days I believe. It would be a modern day remake of European Vacation with the two of us over there.

Also, Hav would get jumped by local soccer hooligans for telling them they arent real athletes

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I’m not pumped about Reece/Kihei combo again, but if we run it back and add a guy like Ali Ali, then I think we’ll be safely in the tournament. That might just mean 8/9 seed type of team but still better than this season. I don’t think we’re going to lose the bad OOC games next season and I think we’ll be better at home in ACC play

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I’d be all for the Fresh and @chavlicek15 road show to Italy. Had an opportunity to play there back in the day and didn’t take it. Always wish I had even for a season.

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We would need Dragon there to keep trouble from finding us

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I’d gladly chaperone you two.

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Fwiw, the Spain trip was early August in 2016.

Rough timeline this offseason for other stuff:

  • Stay/go decisions from Kihei and anyone else - hopefully this week
  • London on April 14 (or later date TBD)
  • '23 recruiting starting this weekend, right? Continuing throughout the summer (e.g. Peach Jam mid-July)
  • Incoming portal stuff (rough guess - plays out over next 3-4 weeks or so; HGN hinted/guessed it may be later this year with in-person trips an option again)
  • (I’m assuming NBA draft dates won’t matter much for us, but maybe Jayden tests)
  • Frosh arrive in June or so, I think
  • Blue/White game - some Tuesday in October at 10:15 am
  • Bad takes from me - dropping continuously through the offseason
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He had us 68th this year in the preseason. We finished 59th.

KenPom had us 45th this year in the preseason. We finished 72nd.

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My understanding it that KenPom includes some weighting from the prior season at the beginning of the season. This effect takes several weeks to fade out. Torvik doesn’t do this (or as much)

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OFFICIAL STATEMENT: UVA Basketball can neither confirm nor deny the existence of any such athletic contest. Furthermore, if in fact such an athletic contest did exist, UVA basketball would not be in a position to comment on, record, air or provide replays of said athletic contest. Finally, as a UVA basketball fan, not only should you not desire to see a hypothetical athletic contest such as this, you should also not be discussing or alluding to it’s alleged existence.

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Torvik does too, I’m not sure about the relative weights of the two systems. The most public-facing main difference that has been apparent in the past between Torvik and KenPom is that Torvik’s preseason ratings for offense come from a player-based model projecting individual player performance and lineups, whereas Ken starts from a team-based model, where you start with prior performance and then adjust based on what you know changed in terms of players leaving or coming, coaches changing. Both systems use team-based models for preseason defensive ratings I believe. All of this needs to be taken a with a grain of salt, as I could only find this last written about on freely-available sites in 2017.

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The other major difference is that you can remove Torvik’s preseason weighting by playing with the start date of the analysis

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I can’t believe he filmed this whole video and we got nothing as to who is coming back lmao

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The best early ranking courtesy of Mark Titus.

PREPOSTEROUSLY EARLY TO THE POINT THAT IT’S FRANKLY INSANE THAT WE’RE EVEN TALKING ABOUT THIS AT ALL 2022-23 TOP 25 POWER RANKINGS:

  1. Not Gonzaga
  2. Kentucky
  3. Ohio State
  4. The Elite 8 team that brings the most guys back
  5. Kentucky again, but only to add even more pressure
  6. Butler
  7. Whichever SoCal team lets me use their gym to get shots up this summer
  8. Houston, probably?
  9. Team loaded with talented transfers who have never had a season with a winning record
  10. Blueblood I know nothing about but can’t resist putting in the top 10 anyway
  11. Whoever hands Kansas their first loss
  12. Have I said Villanova yet?
  13. The best team with a coach who struck a man in the handshake line
  14. SEC school most likely to give me social media engagement for putting them in the top 15
  15. Creighton
  16. Virginia basketball might be back? We’ll see
  17. Xavier
  18. Whatever team Doug Edert transfers to
  19. Probably need a few more Big 12 teams on here if I’m being honest so let’s say Baylor but also TCU and Texas Tech too
  20. Future Maui Bump recipient
  21. Cincinnati
  22. The entire Mountain West
  23. Team coached by a guy who is 100% getting fired after the season and everyone seems to know it but him
  24. Mid-major that actually sucks but the coach is a friend of mine so I threw them on here
  25. Indiana
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