In 2020/21, Virginia will boast 12 scholarship players, including six who were rated four stars coming out of high school. That’s deep and talented. If you had to choose between the following two lineups, which would you pick?
Team 1:
Kihei Clark
Jay Huff
Sam Hauser
Casey Morsell
Tomas Woldetensae
That’s a very experienced lineup including two redshirt seniors, a true senior, a junior, and a sophomore. All of them have at least a year in the program.
Team 2:
Reece Beekman
Francisco Caffaro
Jabri Abdur-Rahim
Carson McCorkle
Kadin Shedrick
No experience, but loads of talent. Scoring options at every position.
Good question. So I think I would also go with team 1. Here is why… I think our 2020 recruiting class is most comparable to our 2016 recruiting class with Guy and Jerome. Have a look at the starting lineup for 2016.
Our top recruits needed some time to develop…and they were not just any recruits we are talking about, Guy and Jerome rank #2 and #4 on the all time Tony Bennett recruiting list. Who knows what is actually going to happen. Very likely our starting lineup at the end of next season is going to be different from the beginning.
I know not many agree with me on this, but I think Stattmann is going to play a good amount next year even if he’s not a starter. JAR will play plenty, but I’m skeptical that he will start. I could see a development curve for him similar to Hunter his redshirt freshman year-- inconsistent the first third of the season, but a significant contributor once conference play begins in earnest. Beekman will probably play a lot too because of the need for ball handling help and defensive match ups against tall back courts. I’m not expecting a lot of playing time for McCorkle next year. Very high on Shedrick long term, but no clue whatsoever on what to expect next year in terms of playing time.
I think you’re all wrong about Team 1. Hear me out:
Team 1 is this year’s team, but with Hauser and Huff replacing Diakite and Key, right? Well… Diakite averages 14 points and 7 rebounds; Key averages 10 and 7.
That’s 24 points and 14 rebounds you need to replace just to stay as good as we are this year.
So in Team 1 we have Hauser and Huff replacing them. Hauser averaged 15 points and 7 rebounds; Huff is averaging 8 points and 6 rebounds. That’s 23 points and 13 rebounds.
Yep, that’s right: Team 1, on paper, is worse than this year’s squad.
.
Everyone will be a year older, potential for some big jumps from Morsell/Caffaro. In Hauser’s case he’ll have had a full year to develop. Misleading to make predictions solely off raw averages. Also important to emphasize how different Huff and Hauser are to Key and Diakite. Hauser has the potential to be the Hunter-esque Swiss Army knife offensively. Bench should also be much stronger with much more experience than this yr’s team. That said, ignorant to expect a meteoric rise back to top-5 or even top-10 play, and you make a good point, we’re losing a lot in Key and Diakite, especially as defensive leaders.
What we will have again next year is the versatility and depth to be a very good team. Hauser is very good in his own style of play, not an athletic style like Hunter. JAR is closer to Hunters style. Lots of pieces to play with next year will be very interesting team to follow.
Not making a player comp per se, just making the point that the role they’ll likely try and play Hauser in is similar to dre’s last yr as a pick and pop big who can take a few post touches but also play as the initiator off ball screens and in some iso opportunities.
We had a killer recruiting class for 2020, but expectations should be tempered a bit. Our worse season in the past 7 was 2016-2017 which was our first year playing our top recruiting class. Our record was 23-11, 11-7 in ACC and we tied for 5th. I think it really showed that our star recruits needed time to develop. So Im assuming that will also be the case for this class.
However, that does introduce a question Ive been having in my head for some time now. We can compare recruit rankings of Guy .9853 #37, Jerome .9830 #44, and Hunter .9526 2016 #91, to JAR .9848 #41, Beekman .9790 #55, and McCorcle .9310 #134.
I really have no idea how college ready JAR, Beekman, and McCorcle are. Would love to hear more input, but I have heard murmurs that JAR is the most college ready recruit we have ever landed, and Ive seen clips that show Beekman is an advanced shooter with great ball handling skills and just a well rounded offensive weapon. So maybe someone with more knowledge can chime in here and give us a bit more detailed analysis on how “college ready” these guys are, especially in comparison to Jerome and Guy back in 2016?
I agree with you that it’s unlikely the Hoos will jump back into the top 5 next year given the need to rely heavily on 1st, rFr, and 2nd year players. I think you’d have to look at the returning players plus Hauser and convince yourself that they will improve enough to be a top 15 or so team by themselves before you add in the new guys to bump them up to top 10 range. It’s possible, particularly with Tony at the helm, but probably not likely.
JAR is a great talent, but he’s in the 30 to 40 rank range because he’s not an explosive athlete and was not the most efficient scorer in EBYL— though he was quite efficient at the JPJ camp. I would not be surprised if some fans are complaining about his underwhelming shooting percentages early on in his career here similar to Brogdon and Hunter, but like those two I expect he will make a big leap either later on his 1st year or by his 2nd. Take this all with a grain of salt, though, my track record on player development and playing time predictions are notoriously poor.
I think next years team will depend on Morsell making a big leap in his offensive game and Huff becoming more consistent. If that happens, then it is totally possible that we are looking at a top-10 season. The offense will be much better just by virtue of having more ball handling and better shooting at spots 1-5
I think that’s true. A lineup of Beekman, Hauser, Abdur-Rahim, McCorkle, and Huff would be an offensive juggernaut. Need more defense? Substitute Clark and Morsell. And if Morsell and Huff take a step up? That’s deadly.
