March 2023 - ACC Hoops

Yep, and Grundy and Powell, Miller and Lil Evtimov. Dude named Marcus Melvin, too, if I recall.

Three or four NBAers on that squad.

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I was at the game against them in Cville. Hodge was awesome. Our coaching didnt exist

Dam. i forgot Archie played at State. Was a really good shooter actually

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Here’s the box score – can’t open it at work because my IT department thinks it’s an only fans link. :roll_eyes:

Here’s the write-up:

Agreed with this. I do think a strength of record approach like wins-above-bubble helps a little bit with these kinds of discussions as the quadrant system can make for unclear comparisons. E.g. https://medium.com/top-level-sports/wins-above-bubble-and-the-at-large-case-for-stephen-f-austin-d6ebea0cd904

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I agree with this. Several years ago I worked with a Duke alum and he said they were at the point where they didn’t want to be placed in a NC or SC NCAA tournament site if UNC was also at that site. I laughed my ass off later that season (2017) when Duke was placed in Greenville, SC with UNC and USC-e. Duke lost to South Carolina in the 2nd round and the arena atmosphere was not kind to Duke that day. Plenty of USC fans and UNC fans who were happy to cheer against Duke after they had already won their 2nd round game.

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Looking at WAB is a reasonable proposal. At minimum, add it to the team sheet, right?

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This is the type of BS I can’t stand. Definitely taught.

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Honest question, how does the NET formulate initial rankings? Do you know what Quad your first opponent is in?

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NET doesn’t use any preseason guesses (like KenPom), so there really is no initial rankings of NET in game one. They usually release the first lists in early December, and even then it can have some weird stuff for a while until it gets more data.

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This isn’t a good explanation (there is no good explanation, unfortunately) but NET is basically trying to split the difference between an efficiency/predictive metric (Sagarin, KenPom) and a resume metric (KPI). Probably close to the efficiency ones.

New thought: I agree they should probably throw WAB onto the team sheets.

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You know though… if they did update NET in real-time right from November 1… then I guess whoever wins the first game played would be #1 in the country, with a Q4 win… and whoever loses that game would be worst in the country, with a Q1 loss. And everyone else is tied for second. So that would be fun.

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Same. Ridiculous. You can just lay on someone between plays? Nah man

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I definitely appreciate computer metrics and appreciate the info. I do wish that these metrics were able to fully evaluate factors like injuries. Like in BC’s case where Post was out. The Eagles are a Totally different team with him playing. It would be interesting to see if the algorithm could be shifted to account for how much production was lost when one of your best players is out.

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Not that new thought: WAB and injury notes should be the entire team sheet for section. Then use the quads etc for seeding

There’s also a self-selection bias.

BC is 7-4 in its last 11 games…
Also when
post started playing 30 minutes a game after getting acclimated off injury

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Does the NET readjust its numbers for BC now that they are full strength though? You don’t get into the post season when you lose games like they did in November (with or without a star player). That said the ACC as a whole pays for the injury now that bubble teams are suffering Q3 losses.

The NET doesn’t adjust for injury or other personnel issues. No formula can do that in a pure numerical way. That’s up to the committee.

It also raises tough questions as to what is fair. For example, if you lose a player late in the season, so that now your team is a shell of the version that racked up a great resume, what is the committee supposed to do with you? Knock you down to a low seed, or keep you in the seed you ā€œearnedā€? (They haven’t been that consistent about this in the past, either.)

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Personally I’ve always believed your tournament berth should be based only on the resume, not on whether you’re the ā€œbetterā€ team. Yes, that means some unlucky good teams who have injuries and such don’t make it, but it’s by far the fairest and makes the regular season truly matter. There’s also no way you can account for things like injuries fairly - every team will make a case how X or Y circumstance was why they underperformed.

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Unfortunately, that’s why we had games vs a 4-seed and 7-seed Mich State in 2014 and 2015, respectively.

Injuries throughout the year and got healthy and hit their stride in early to mid March.

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