NCAAT bubble/ACCT double bye watch thread

We’re coming up on a month until Selection Sunday. Seven regular season games left. Like it or not, it’s time to start paying attention to where things stand and the teams we’re competing with.

UVA is at 8-5 in the ACC, with a one game lead on 4th place over NC State and Syracuse. We would have the tiebreaker over Syracuse at the moment due to having the best win vs FSU. NCSU holds the tiebreaker over us courtesy of their head to head victory.

According to Dr. Bracketology Joe Linardi, UVA would be in the NCAA tourney field if it started today as an 11 seed.

UVA’s NET ranking is 54, unchanged after last night’s win over Notre Dame.

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Lots of scenarios to game out, but I think getting another Q1 win is crucial; this is basically Duke, Louisville, or an ACC tourney win over Duke/Louisville/FSU. They might be able to get in without doing that if they win all their other games, but it makes things more dicey. With the 4 road games coming up, I think they need to go 3-1; adding that to a win over Duke or Louisville would probably be enough. I’m not a bracketologist, so take this all with a big grain of salt.

This is an interesting tool to play around with to game out different scenarios and see how that could affect the tourney projections: http://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?&team=Virginia&year=2020

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Just finish 4th in regular season and win 1 ACCT game. Then we control our own destiny. They will not go with just 3 ACC teams. Never happen.

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The quadrant system for those unfamiliar…I’m just learning this stuff myself. Each team’s resume is broken down by their wins and losses in quadrants based on opponent’s NET ranking.

  • Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75.
  • Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135.
  • Quadrant 3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240.
  • Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus.

As @AdventiveQuasar said, Duke and Louisville are our only remaining opportunities for quad 1 wins…as things stand. Pitt (78) and VT (80) are both on the outer edge, and could potentially become chances for Q1 road wins. at GT (82) currently a Q2 win could move into Q1 territory with a strong finish. On the flip side, the win at Syracuse (67) is a borderline Q1 right now. This is the problem every ACC team is dealing with. A very strong top of the league, and the next tier isn’t strong enough. All adds up to fewer realistic chances at Q1 wins than other power conferences.

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Last nights win was huge for us because it was a win over a solid team but also keeps us in control of the 4th spot double bye. I think the ACC has 7 teams fighting for 5 spots in the dance, with 3 already being locked in. Should be exciting to watch down the stretch, I think we settle in around a 9 seed.

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Gotta get a win against Duke or UL. Said all yr they have to win 1 out of the 3 total matchups. If they can’t pick up that win they are going to need an ACC tournament run of some sort

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fellow bubble team VCU took a Q4 loss tonight, at home to George Mason. Big ouch for them.

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Jordan Cornette of ACC network said earlier today that with the win over ND last night the hoos are in the NCAA tourney. There’s no way the ACC only takes 3 teams. Now it is just a matter of who the 5th ACC team will be, he said.

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I would like to believe that but we better win the games we are supposed to

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agreed. this is the rest of the schedule- hard to believe that there are only 7 games left. EVERY GAME COUNTS! The ACC tourney will impact the entire ACCs tourney status, too. I say we go 5-2 in this final 7 game stretch, lsoing to VT on the road and Duke at home. That would leave us at 21-10 on the season and 13-7 in the ACC

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Man that’s a brutal schedule. With this years team I could see them going 6-1 or 3-4. It’s going to be tough. They must wins the game the ahould VT UNC Pitt BC Miami. If that happens then they are at the committees mercy

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That should move Georgia Tech near quadrant 1 status. I dont know, maybe?

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ALERT! LOUISVILLE HAS LOST!!! LOUISVILLE GOES DOWN 58-64 AT GEORGIA TECH! THIS COULD BE BIG

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Another item to add to your wish list. If Arizona state who’s current Net ranking is 53, moves up to a ranking of 50 or higher that should change our quad 2 neutral site win to a quad 1 win. At least someone else explained it to me that way. So tonight Arizona State plays at Stanford at 11pm. That would be a big win for a them and positive for us. Somebody please correct me if im wrong on this.

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Account to @blloyd8298 on twitter, “UVa now just 3.5 games out of 1st in the ACC with 7 games to play…including home games against Duke and Louisville.” The next few weeks are going to be awesome and hugely important

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This is an important point and it’s why being 5th in the conference doesn’t necessarily guarantee a tournament bid; what wins and losses you get to end up there matter. I agree that just 3 teams getting in is unlikely; between UVa and NC State, there’s a tournament team there, but I don’t know if 5 is particularly likely.

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Only bumped GT up 2 spots to 80. Home wins don’t move the needle that much I guess.

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Clearly they havent veen ti McCammish. Every game is like an away game for GT there

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Wow, I’m just trying to learn how all this works. The fact that it was a home win evidently kept Tech from jumping higher Thanks HGN. This is interesting

ASU got the win last night and is a Q1 win as of now at #49

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