šŸ€ Next Basketball Head Coach Speculation Thread

For folks who are unimpressed by those names: go make a list of the best 15-20 or so high major college hoops coaches who have already been successful at that high major level. Then cross out the guys coaching at their Alma maters (eg, Painter). Then cross out the octogenarians (Eg, Izzo, Barnes). Then cross out the blue bloods (eg, Hurley, Self). And cross out guys who are probably not gonna fit with our self conception of the pillars (eg, Oats, Pearl).

Who are you left with ?

Guys we agree should be on the reach out list - Otz and Shaka.

Who else? Tommy Lloyd. Sure, if someone wants to see if his folks or in-laws just retired to central Va (and he likes them), then give him a shout.

Who else?

If someone wants to run the Greg Gard welcome committee, then I suspect nobody will stand in your way.

Edit - I’m running the Fran welcome committee. And @BDragon is the perfect person to run the Sean Miller welcome committee. And no joke, who’s even left on the list? Greg McDermott?

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Maybe Brad Underwood, Brian Dutcher, Randy Bennett (SDSU and St Mary’s are close enough to high major for me)? But yeah, the list is not deep.

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Yeah, Underwood was the one other guy I thought of when I was eyeballing (but forgot above)

I’d be fine but not blown away by Dutcher and Bennett. And I guess Dutcher passes the ā€œbuddies who don’t follow college hoops have heard of himā€ test, barely. Because of his trip to the natty.

TLDR - can we get Billy Donovan or Brad Steven’s? Probably not. But who knows!

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I still have my Welcome to Charlottesville Sean banner from 2009.

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I feel like AZ fans kind of hate Lloyd for choking in the postseason. He just got an extension so he’s probably not going anywhere (certainly not to UVa) but I could see him being a guy who surprisingly bolts to another job at some point.

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Hopefully this link works, it should be the Torvik rankings combined from the last 5 seasons:

https://barttorvik.com/?year=2025&sort=&hteam=&t2value=&conlimit=All&state=All&begin=20191101&end=20250501&top=0&revquad=0&quad=5&venue=All&type=All&mingames=0#

Obviously some of the teams have had multiple head coaches, some are on the up and up and some are declining, but good starting point for successful coaches.

Things that stood out:

  • Did Chris Holtmann get a raw deal?
  • Tad Boyle at Colorado is better than I expected
  • Utah St is an excellent way station for a coach on the rise
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I like Holtmann but he was kind of an analytical darling at OSU. His teams lost way more games than they should have. KenPom, Torvik, etc don’t care about wins and losses, but I do.

Mick Cronin is another high major coach who we could target. Maybe he’s not enjoying west coast living or random road trips from LA to State College. Maybe he’s tired of working for an impoverished athletic department.

The most realistic High Major targets are:
-Mark Byington
-Fred Hoiberg
-Kim English
-Wes Miller
-Chris Holtmann

I’d put Otz and Shaka in the less realistic category. You could add names like Lamont Paris or Shaheen Holloway but I just don’t see us targeting them.

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Here’s the same time period, sorted by Wins Above Bubble:

https://barttorvik.com/?sort=34&begin=20191101&end=20250501&conlimit=All&year=2025&top=0&venue=All&type=All&mingames=0&quad=5&rpi=#

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Was looking at resumes just now - Odom has only made it to the NCAA tournament twice in his whole career and has only one win there (versus us). He’s also only ever won his conference tournament once (same year) and only finished top of his conference in the regular season once. Not exactly what I’d hope for in a top candidate.

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Danny Hurley had only been to two tournaments before UConn hired him. I’m not a huge Odom advocate but I’m not sure NCAAT success should be the main criteria.

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Fair. But Hurley won two games in the tournament, making it to the round of 32 two years in a row with Rhode Island. He’d also just won the regular season and tournament championships in those two seasons. So he was clearly on the rise.

If Odom can make it to the tournament this year and win a game (plus maybe win his conference) I’d be more intrigued.

The college basketball podcasts and UVA message boards would have a hell of a time with UVA hiring away UCLA’s coach after all the Tony Bennett hasn’t told UCLA no schtick over the years.

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Tommy Lloyd would allow us to continue the successful international pipeline that Tony established.

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So do we really want to create that opening?

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I don’t think that Brad Stevens ever comes back to college coaching.

HOWEVER…

Carla’s long runway allows her to quietly reach out to guys like Stevens or Donovan just in case without the risk of a public rejection.

She should absolutely make any crazy phone call she can think of during this quiet time before the public and casual fans really engage in the replacement talk.

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But if that’s your threshold, then you’re looking for a mid or low major lifer.

John Becker at Vermont leaps way above your threshold. Is that the type of guy you want?

Coming off as snarky, but I’m kinda curious what types of thresholds folks have …

(Will also add, his success was roughly the same as what Oats and Otz had. And Odom’s successful season in the A-10 is meaningful to me, even though it doesn’t hit your stats at all)

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I think of a couple of different archetypes of coach hires; I don’t have a strong view of which will be more successful:

  • The Program Builder: low-to-midmajor guy with some longevity at his program, has it running above its historical water level; eg Matt Langel (whenever he decides to leave), Pat Kelsey (thinking about his Winthrop time)
  • The Rising Star: typically younger, less experienced, but has some sharp peaks of success and can strike while the iron’s hot for a new job; eg Danny Sprinkle, Todd Golden pre-Florida, Kim English pre-Providence
  • The Climber: this is someone who has steadily worked their way up the food chain, maybe not a ton of time at one program; eg Mike Rhoades, Mark Byington pre-Vandy
  • The Elite Assistant: you know what this is; eg Jerome Tang, Micah Shrewsberry pre-Penn State
  • The ā€œYou’re not breaking up with me, I’m breaking up with youā€: The guys who have the foresight to find a new job before the hook comes; eg Andy Enfield, Mike White

Would you all add any archetypes?

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I’m not looking for a guy who has necessarily been to the tournament a ton - as you point out that’s probably a lifer type coach at a place. But I’d like their trip to the tournament to be recent and I’d really like them to have won some post season games recently (conference tourney and/or an NCAA game).

That rising star type is what Hurley was as talked about above. Odom went a few years ago with Utah St but it’s been two years since then (admittedly with a job change). He also hasn’t won a conference tourney recently and didn’t win a game with Utah St in that trip. It’s just not a resume that screams rising star to me, but maybe folks are just seeing it earlier than I am. But the American East wasn’t like an amazing conference and his results with UMBC there were good but not astounding. Nothing that screams elite coaching to me at least.