Last month of the regular season!
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https://x.com/t_oglesby22/status/1752743412921409816?s=46
Lot of discussion yesterday about how the Big 12 is getting so much credit in the NET for crushing cupcakes OOC. All started with this Oglesby tweet. Good example of why including a āpredictiveā element in the sorting tool used for selection is dumb imo
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Really getting āthereās no way to solve these problems as long as folks think that letting coaches and ADs set their own schedules is our only optionā pilled on this stuff.
If there is no way to have centralized scheduling then everyone is going to hate whatever absolutely fine, unobjectionable metric the math dorks come up with.
Speaking of math dorks taking odd strays, can we please not block k__p__?
k__p__ is a great tool, and a mitzvah for every college hoop fan, and itās weird the obsession some have with pooping on it.
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Agreeā¦ i dont even use it but seeing the censor just looks dumb IMO
Should be good now. KenPom! Say it loud and proud
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[quote=āhaney, post:3, topic:11882ā]
mathematical gymnastics to remove confounding variables from the equation so that you can compare teams apples-to-apples will always be a flawed proxy for these teams actually playing one another.
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I bet ESPN would make a killing by hosting a fantasy sports style draft for non-con scheduling.
Get all the P5 coaches and ADs in a giant room in Vegas for a weekend. Maybe set some loose parameters / negotiate uniform rates for buy games.
Would be very impractical but television gold mine. So basically no reason why it wonāt happen.
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Gah. In a vacuum, I think UVAās got a solid shot at the NCAAās. 13-7 in the ACC puts the team at 22-9, plus maybe 1-1 in the ACC tournament is 23-10, which isnāt fantastic but seems like it should be pretty good.
But now Nebraska goes and beats freaking Wisconsin in OT. Theyāre now 16-6, a little ahead of us on KenPom and have wins over Wisconsin, Purdue, and Michigan State. I still think weāll probably be ok, but the bubble could be pretty tough this year.
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This is why Iām voting no on whether weāll make the tournamentāthe bubble seems quite strong this year. A lot of teams around us already have marquee wins that we havenāt had the opportunity to get. Of course thereās still a third of the regular season left, almost all of which is Q1/2 opportunities for us, but I think the path to getting our resume where it needs to be is pretty narrow.
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Itās still too early to know which teams will actually be on the bubble.
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Yeah, I donāt want to tell anyone who to root for or against. Whatever makes you happy and gets you through the day. But rooting against bubble teams at this point in the year is like hoping that pouring coffee into the ocean will make the ocean warmer.
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Damn. Didnāt he catch a charge when he was in Blacksburg too?
Iām sure this belongs in the āTheyāre Just Kids Sanctimonious Heroesā thread - but is Traudt hurt, or just straight up out of the rotation for Creighton?
Seems like McDermott only trusts 6 guys; even in their 3OT game against Seton Hall, they only played their guys outside of the top-6 a total of 6 minutes.
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Maybe the quads are the problem?
https://x.com/dadgumboxscores/status/1753110570541445254?s=61
What this is saying is that T-Rank has these two games as equally difficult to win*, but they are far apart in the quads.
*0.42 wins-above bubble means that a bubble-level team would be predicted to lose the game 42% of the time, which gives the value of winning the game for the team.
I donāt think Iāve ever seen the analytical basis for the quad ranges discussed in any detail. Ideally you want games within a given quad to not be too different from each other in difficulty, but thatās tough given how big of a range Quad 3/4 cover.
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Has the NCAA shared an analytical basis for the NET or the Quad system? Everything that Iāve seen is really high level, with little to no discussion of how they selected the system thatās currently in place.
There was chatter about adjusting the quads a year or two back, but nothing happened. I think the quads predated the NET, right? Started with the RPI?
As far as I know, the NCAA looks at this stuff but doesnāt release anything publicly.
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Oh man youāre right, itās exactly the RPI quads range (started in 2018), so who knows how they came up with it.
Though before that, they listed RPI top-50 wins and RPI top-100 wins on team sheet, regardless of whether it was home or away, whichā¦
To me, the quads only exist for the sake of the selection committeeā¦itās really hard to compare with your eyes resumes between teams that have schedules with very different distributions of opponent strength. The NCAAās solution is to layer on various flawed ways of guiding their human committees eyes through a resume. As Iāve soapboxed about before, what if we solve the problem by taking the humans out of it and giving them their weekend back?
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Donāt expect any big changes but I feel like releasing the actual NET ratings is a small ask that would a big help to hardcore fans making sense of bracketology. When I go to KenPom I can see UVA is about 1.6 points per 100 possessions behind the team ranked 10 spots ahead of us (Oregon). How far are we behind Utah, the team ranked 10 spots ahead of us in the NET? Apparently only AWS knows
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