I do think this is a massive underestimation of how good Karaban is, he creates for himself much more than youâd think. Of course he benefited from being surrounded by a bunch of other really good players but I donât think that means he was relegated to ârole playerâ, if anything Castle was the glue guy in that lineup. Averaging 13/5 on really good shooting splits for a national title winning team is a little more than a role player IMO, also think McNeeley and Johnson both have separate skillsets that are very valuable.
I would take UConnâs 3/4/5 over ours pretty easily this season, but thatâs not to say I donât like our guys. I think it would be closer if we were talking about who weâd take for the next two years, because I really like the projection of Power, Saunders, and Buchanan in 2025-2026 whereas Karaban and McNeeley are probably going pro after this year.
He had a higher BPR than anyone on our roster last year. He improved on his freshman season on higher usage. That 37% from 3 shooting is on a higher volume than anyone shot for us. Sure heâs elevated by the talent around him but he also earned a role on the best team in basketball two years running. Not arguing us v. UConn but I think he has demonstrably proven to be a better college player than anyone we have.
I think maybe Im overestimating how quickly Saunders and Power hit their projection.
Just watching UConnâs game last night and the blue white scrimmage, I think Power and Saunders have more to their game and opportunity + experience/confidence of being trusted.
I think this is the sane assumption, but Im more so taking the optimistic fan projection given Power and Saunders have never really been given the opportunity to be the key players being built around. We will see. Iâd personally take Saunders (athleticism) and Power (who I think is the better 3pt shooter) as players to build around.
I never forget and it should be talked about more. Also wasnât there a weird side plot where one of the coastal Carolina playersâ surrogate US family was one of the UVA basketball managers? Might be hallucinating that.
Minor statistical point: thereâs a little ârising tide lifts all boatsâ thing that goes on with plus-minus types of metrics (BPR, RAPM) where the individual player gets a bunch of team success (or anti-success) attributed to them.
Think about it this way: if a team is +10 per game in point differential during the year, individual playersâ plus-minus stats come from that point differential getting divided among the roster in various ways that try to be proportional to the amount that each player contributed. This both makes sense (the players on a +10/game team are likely better than the ones on a -10/game team) and also can lead to some overestimation of role players on good teams and underestimation of players on bad teams.
UVA example: in 2018-19, Mamadi and Braxton (and by a small amount, Kihei) had higher BPRs than in 2019-20. Did they get worse that following year or was it just that they werenât quite as effective at their more featured roles compared to their more limited roles the year before?
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