I don’t know a lot about these adjusted offenses and defenses. I just go by what my eyes see and it usually don’t match what I saw. I am going to start studying that so I can understand it more. But calling Kehei our worst defender is ridiculous.
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I broke down the film to see who gave up what to Pitt - see here:
Actual film breakdown says: here’s who allowed what to Pitt
Watching the entire film here’s who is responsible defensively for Pitt points.
Double team - great pass to a weak side shooter: 3 points
Team scramble on a Hauser save - 2 FT’s = 2 points
6 men on the floor - Technical = 2 points
Garbage time - last drive = 1 point
Individually points allowed - includes points given up directly and also anyone who allowed their man to get past them causing a help-side defender to have to help. Also includes any turnover that leads directly to a transition basket.
Woldetensae: 3
Morsell: 4
Beekman: 7
Murphy: 7
Hauser: 8
Huff: 10
Clark: 19
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It seems like whoever is defending the opponent’s point guard would be at a disadvantage in this analysis. Wouldn’t there be many more opportunities to allow the PG to create scoring chances than someone off the ball?
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Also wouldn’t whoever plays the most mins also be at a disadvantage by sheer number of opportunities to be scored on?
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Does defensive rating usually include transition points off of turnovers made? Seems odd to me, but I don’t have the equation for the defensive ratings that you cite.
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No - defensive rating does not do that. That’s why I watch film to see how accurate a rating was for a particular game. It’s mostly a rating for individual defensive success in a half court set. In general that makes it an accurate measure for the Hoos because we give up so few transition points.
Like the bucket Pitt got because of Huff’s brain-fart in the back court - I gave as allowed by Huff and didn’t penalize the guy actually scored upon.
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@DavetheWave thanks for always supplying the metrics and the breakdowns. It’s tough to find anything perfect, but appreciate your background info.
Question - where do they post the replays of the games at? I’m interested in re-watching as I was a bit distracted on Saturday.
I don’t doubt that Kihei is one of our poorer defenders this year. I’ve seen a lot of guards shooting over him this year or taking advantage of his aggressiveness and driving. Without the same level of help defense, it’s easier to expose.
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I’ve resigned to say that we live by Kihei and we die by Kihei. He has proven to be one of the few guys that can create his own shot. There will be nights they go down and others where he doesn’t have the same success. Hard to question his decision making on the bad nights if no one else is stepping up.
Crazy thought. Does Kody offer a new dynamic once inserted? Love Trey’s spot up shooting but I still don’t think he can create on his own. Maybe I’m still working off the Superbowl haze, but I wonder if Kody can pressure the defense with some dribble drives and add that element.
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Guarding opposing teams best players tends to make good defenders appear to be worse both statistically and in film just like being one of maybe 2 real playmakers on offense makes good creators sloppier in execution. Just saying.
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Watch ESPN is where I rewatch or on my DVR
Reece has guarded the best scoring guards for our opponents a ton this season. He is the 2nd rated guard defender in the ACC.
Kyle Guy rarely guarded an opponent’s best offensive guards and he was the 2nd worst rated defender after Clark.
From Calculating Individual Offensive and Defensive Ratings | Basketball-Reference.com
…excellent perimeter defenders who don’t steal the ball a lot — for instance, Joe Dumars or Doug Christie — are underrated defensively by DRtg, and are prone to look only as good as their team’s overall defense performs.
When all you have to measure perimeter defense is steals, your metrics aren’t going to be that accurate
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You can’t just take one piece of it out of context. Defensive ratings literally measures points allowed per 100 possessions. It includes defensive stops that cause misses and turnovers and also blow by’s that allow the opponent to score.
But I’ll take your quote - “and are prone to look only as good as their team’s overall defense performs.”
If that is true then let’s just measure Clark against the other UVA defenders. Among regular rotation guys he is last. The only one worse is Caffaro. Clark is considerably worse than the other 3 guards.
It’s virtually impossible for anyone to play good defense in the halfcourt with his lack of size and strength. And then it’s also impossible to expect anyone to play good defense for 36 minutes a game - too mentally and physically taxing for regular sized guys, let alone for someone that starts at a deficit.
Fewer minutes would allow him to be better in his time on the floor more consistently.
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On a slightly different topic, I find it amazing, after eventually getting used to last season’s extending trouble with scoring, that the Hoos hit 50% of their 3s against Pitt and its not even particularly noteworthy. Like, “Of course they hit 50% of their 3s. Why wouldn’t they?” And that take isn’t really wrong because its the 4th time this season the Hoos hit 50% or more of their 3s in a game and they’ve hit more than 40% of their 3s a number of times as well. They’ve shot 40% or better from 3 in almost half their games this season. Its an astounding turn-around after last year.
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Great point. Enjoy the ride because these games are exponentially more entertaining to watch than last year.
Sure, that’s what it’s estimating. But what is it using to make that estimate (besides opponent shooting, which is the same for everyone)? Steals, blocks, and rebounds. That’s it. Of course Kihei’s rating is going to look bad if that’s all it’s based off of.
I don’t think you understand - it measures a person’s FG % allowed individually against their individual matchup whenever someone they are guarding shoots. It also measures if they personally allow an opponent to get past them to the lane and either finish or dish due to helpside.
I remember a quote (I believe from Tony) when Kihei was first on the team how much Kihei’s defense was annoying to Ty, so much so that there was frustration on Ty’s part (an Ty is not a short guard). And I think in his first year, Kihei was annoyingly effective on defense by getting up and under his man, negating his lack of height. As Kihei has been required to do more in the past two years, I believe his defense has become much less effective while also being much less aggressive (emphasis on non-fouling - we can actually afford for Kihei to pick up 3 or 4 or even 5 fouls, particularly if one or two of those fouls preempt Jay getting one instead).
As suggested, some reduction in minutes with a renewed emphasis on individual defense by Kihei is likely to make him more effective, along with pairing him more with Casey (I think that the best guard pairing for Reece is Tomas - should keep the KC/RB pairing down in minutes and only on the court when Jay is playing). No statistics, but I also believe that Kihei’s defense is suffering because we are having to drop under more screens because we don’t have the ability to execute the hard hedge as in the past, which exposes him, and less “unity” for lack of a better word (maybe cohesiveness) in the packline. The packline works best when everyone is almost instinctual in movement and plays their part - any breakdown by someone elsewhere in the packline starts to expose deficiencies such as Kihei’s. A year ago, a man beats him into the middle, Mamadi steps in to cut the drive and then Braxton slipped to cover Mamadi’s area of responsibility to prevent the pass, Kody or Casey finds the closest guy on the 3-line as the kickout occurs. That happens, and Kihei’s defensive rating goes up. This year, Jay or Caffaro have to step in and then Sam or Trey have to cover down. But unlike past years, they haven’t developed the reflexes so that happens without thought and the overall and individual defense is so much better. Much more likely that the allowed FG% will be higher this year so that the individual “defense” is worse, but it really is a breakdown of the entire packline often.
The somewhat disheartening thing is that, at least so far this year, I can’t see constant improvement in the packline as in the past. Time to get there, but without a more consistent defense, the KC/RB tandem on offense will continue to be an issue. No statistics to back this up, but my two cents as to why it is part of the problem for Kihei.
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Also most teams simply gave the ball to someone else to bring up the floor most of that season and his full court D was rendered moot.