🗺 Potential ACC Expansion & Conference Realignment

[4547Lambeth]

@MaineWahoo

I’ve been thinking for a while we needed to get to the BIG, but if they’re going all the way to the west coast, we may find ourselves one of the schools left out of the major power realignment. There are many more attractive dance partners on the dance floor than us right now.

If you look at my 2 24 school league proposal where the B1G adds Cal, Stanford, Washington, Oregon, UNC, Duke, GT and us and the SEC adds CU, FSU, Miami, NCSU, Kansas, Arizona and 2 more among Arizona State, Utah, Colorado, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and VT, what AAU schools are more attractive than us to the B1G? We’re a fit geographically and academically.

Split each league into 4 divisions of 6 and do an 8 team playoff of division winners or a 12 team playoff with 4 wildcards. Or split each conference into 6 divisions of 4 and each of the 12 division winners are the playoff.

[4547Lambeth]

@MaineWahoo

But are we actually more attractive to the super conferences than Pitt, VT, and Syracuse? I’m not so sure.

For the B1G at least, the only other AAU school of those 3 is Pitt and Penn State probably would support us over them. And they need Virginia to connect Maryland to North Carolina (geographic connection might not matter anymore with the addition of the west coast schools, of course).

[Vandy-Hoo]

Another move for the ACC would be to merge with the PAC 10 remnants. We could essentially be two separate conferences (East and West) in everything but media negotiations, which is the whole point of these mergers anyway.

[BDragon]

I don’t think the geographic location makes a difference any more. Between the proliferation of video and travel schools aren’t confined to recruit by location and kids can watch any and every program in they want.

The question of Pitt, VT, Syracuse, UVa… I hate to say this but VT may be the best suited to jump ship. I reliable football program that has produced constantly over the last 25ish years. A basketball program that’s generally competitive (doesn’t fall on their face) and appears to be on a general upswing.

Pitt has a good football tradition and is coming off some recent high points, but haven’t shown a ton of consistency in that department. The basketball program has been a bottom feeder the last 10 years and doesn’t show much sign of that changing.

Syracuse probably the most level of all the programs in regards of what they offer across the board. Football was going somewhere 5 years ago and is now floundering. Who knows what happens to basketball in 2-5 yrs when JB leaves.

Then you have the Hoos, the basketball program we know what they bring but the football program brings nothing to the table.

I forgot what I was getting at when I started this post.

[norfolk_hoo]

VT is cooked. No one outside of VA cares about their brand and they can’t even sell media markets. Their other sports suck. It’s in the middle of nowhere so sorta expensive to get to for non revenues. All around they are cooked unless we bail them out again.

We need to hitch on to UNC for dear life.

[Vandy-Hoo]

Tbh, we may want to hope that VT bolts to the SEC as it would free us (in the eyes of the VA government) to go to the Big 10. We may actually want to form a bit of a backroom alliance with VT to go separate ways at the same time to avoid the government interference.

I think we’d be attractive to the Big10 given that it adds the Virginia market (NOVA is booming) to their overall portfolio. I don’t think they can credibly argue that Maryland gives them anything on our side of the Potomac.

[Vandy-Hoo]

I could see the SEC adding them - gives them a new populous state in their media negotiations, and they fit the culture etc quite well. They’d want to add a Carolina school too, probably. I could see them gunning hard for UNC of course, but could easily settle for NC State.

[Hooandtrue]

Michael Koh

[MaineWahoo]

The AAU thing is something else I’m not sure we can put a ton of stock in any more. I know the BIG used to really care about it - and maybe they still do - but I don’t think Nebraska is AAU anymore. They were when they joined, but they got kicked out and the BIG didn’t kick them out. So now there’s precedent.

That said, if we go with just AAU schools, if I were the BIG and I needed more schools, I’d be looking at the following: Notre Dame, Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Colorado, Utah, Kansas, UNC, Duke, Georgia Tech, Pitt, and Virginia. That’s 14 schools, of which we’re saying they take eight. I’d have us above Pitt, Cal, and maybe GT and Colorado, but I don’t think it’s clearcut. It’s not so much about media markets anymore and more about the size of fanbases and eyeballs that will actually tune in. We have a tiny enrollment relative to most of those, and since geography doesn’t matter anymore, we’re competing against a lot more schools. I’d like to think we’d come out ahead, but I’m not certain.

You would probably note that the SEC will be trying to grab schools too, and that would help, which is true. But they could go with something like FSU, Clemson, Miami, VT, NCST, Louisville, Arizona St, Baylor for eight. Obviously they’d probably prefer some of the ones from the BIG list, but they have good options on the table.

The problem for us is that there is no way we fit in the SEC. We need one of the BIG slots if it comes down to that. So I guess we should cheer for all those other possible BIG teams to announce they’re headed to the SEC over the next several years.

[MaineWahoo]

@norfolk_hoo

VT is cooked. No one outside of VA cares about their brand and they can’t even sell media markets.

I hear you, but they have the biggest fanbase in VA and its not nearly as much about media markets anymore. It’s about fanbase size and eyeballs that will tune into your conference’s streaming service. Regional networks and local cable access are less critical than they once were.

[BDragon]

Sadly I think you’re right. The VT base is large and present. They tend to do well on selling bowl game tickets. They now have strong alumni bases up and down the East coast.

If I had to pick I’d agree with @norfolk_hoo and UVa should allign with UNC and offer themselves as a package deal. Tar Heels are too big a national brand to het screwed over.

[BDragon]

Screw it why doesn’t UVa get in front of them start the nerd u conference bring in Stanford Cal force NDs hand Duke and Unc. Bring in NW and Vandy to be the bottom deeders.

[Vandy-Hoo]

Don’t disagree but I do think you’re underestimating the media markets angle a bit. Eyeballs matter and is definitely a factor, but I think media rights still flow geographically in sports (esp college sports) given the many regional players. So I think being the Big 10’s only option in our state of almost 10 million people is an important factor. I think it might bump us above Utah and at least level with Washington, Kansas and Arizona as targets – so right in the mix for slots 6-8.

[MaineWahoo]

Very fair. And I’m not saying they don’t matter, but they have a much different relevance than they did in rounds of major conference realignment in the 2000s and early 2010s where that’s all that was talked about. Was all about getting your product on local regional networks or whatever. Now with the conference networks, streaming, etc., it seems like you are worried a little more about getting big brands that draw eyeballs and less about technical access to a media market.

An interesting question is whether the BIG, if they were doing it all over again now, would take Rutgers. I don’t think they would. But maybe I’m wrong.

[Vandy-Hoo]

I think we’re in agreement - less relevant than before but still relevant. Hopefully it’s enough for us since you’re right that our fan base is smaller.

Curious if you agree with my point about being on par with those schools I listed.

[MaineWahoo]

Hmm. I’d put Washington ahead of us because of their size and having Seattle in their footprint. But probably agree we’re head of Utah and maybe a toss-up with Kansas and Arizona, although Arizona has a really big enrollment in a growing state. So overall yes, although I probably value Washington and Arizona a little higher.

But the one thing is, if the BIG does continue to expand and they’re going westward, they’re probably going to want more western teams to essentially create viable western divisions. So that will give some teams out there a little bit of an advantage over us potentially, all else equal. But maybe not - who knows?

[Vandy-Hoo]

Yeah good point on westward expansion – in fact, I think this is a dumb move for the Cali schools given the lack of western peers in the Big10. So maybe this is just the first shoe to drop for the Pac 12.

I guess our counter would need to be - don’t you want to go south a bit more too? I agree with others that we need to hug UNC tightly - they’d want an old friend in the Big 10 with them and we might make the most sense overall.

[Hooandtrue]

The UCLA and USC move to the B1G is bad for us because

1. its two less open spots in the B1G’s big plan that we could have filled
2. It shows the B1G is willing to ditch it’s “you have to be a border state” rule and can go straight to getting UNC which is at the top of their list.

There is a real chance UVA could be left in the dust here. go FCS in football and build a program that way maybe before moving up to FBS? Get top FBS transfers and wrack up wins/build a culture and program that way? While Basketball goes independent?

[Wahoo1919]

UVA finally has a football ops building on the way, I just don’t see the big donors letting UVA get the short end of the stick here. If they push, UVA will leave the ACC.

[Hooandtrue]

Fair but it’s not if UVA leaves the ACC. It’s who will take us when football money and viewership is driving realignment? What’s our pitch for what we bring? Olympic sports and we won a basketball natty three years ago? These conferences want either 1) a strong brand on its own that will get them viewership or 2) entry into a city TV market that will drive viewership.