🗺 Potential ACC Expansion & Conference Realignment

[Hoos9412]

@Mikeysurf

ACC’s best case is to convince the Pac-12 to stay together, offer the ACC Network platform for their content. The 3-hour time difference offers some good working blocks of continuous time for both leagues. Having both conferences realize an expanded “in-the-footprint” income with a partnership is a plus. Both leagues maintain their current structure, and it keeps the Big 12 marginalized.

Then, the ACC needs to focus on the football assets it already has, which are significant if they can capitalize upon them – Clemson, Miami, FSU, ND for 5 games per season, head-to-head match ups with SEC schools, and a collection of mid-tier football programs that need to produce better out-of-conference results.

Sounds like a lot of wishful thinking just to make the ACC a distant 3rd best. Hope UVA’s efforts are more focused on back channeling the Big Ten and SEC, making sure we are airtight with Carolina, and investigating creative paths forward than wasting precious time trying to salvage a sinking ship. The only way the ACC survives as a viable football conference is to add Notre Dame. Otherwise the league is just treading water until the first big dog jumps even if that actually doesn’t happen until 2036 (which I’m highly skeptical it takes that long).

[BDragon]

Is the ACC dead yet?

[Mikeysurf]

Geez, I would hate to have to go into battle with many possessing your mindset. If the grant of rights was easy to get out of, Texas and OU would already be out of it. So forget banging on the SEC or B1G’s door! No one is going anywhere, anytime soon.

Miami is definitely trending up. Clemson had a down year, with a ton of injuries, and still won 10 games. Those are two good assets to build around.

Secondly, Louisville is having a strong recruiting year and FSU returns a lot of talent. FSU certainly can defeat Florida with the struggles the Gators are having in transition. If Louisville plays up to its potential, no reason they shouldn’t have a shot at Kentucky. Miami gets Texas A&M in a high profile game. State goes to Texas Tech early in the season. No reason Clemson can’t beat ND and South Carolina. Only GT will be outclassed against Georgia. These are games ACC schools can and must win.

[Mikeysurf]

Guess until someone shows me a path for ACC schools to leave – a conference to go to and escaping the Grant-of-Rights – I’m fully expecting there to be an ACC in 3 years. That would be 2025-2026 school year approaching. The new expanded playoff TV deal hasn’t started as yet.

[Hoosnext2]

You keep pointing out how Texas and ou waited for the grant of rights deal to be nearly over before making a move. But you may be drawing the absolute wrong conclusion. They waited because they could. Why run the risk of trying to break it when all this was happening close to the exit date? The acc schools are locked in for 14 years and thus have a much bigger incentive to challenge GOR. Rest assured there are ways to do so as many lawyers have pointed out. It will only take one of 14/15 to try (or a few could pool together) and the cost benefit analysis of doing so is becoming increasingly attractive. As the athletic and others have highlighted, there are many ways to challenge the gor. The challenges are coming…

[Mikeysurf]

That’s not what I said.

Texas and OU waited until the Big 12 sought to obtain re-commitments from each school in early 2021 to begin conversations with networks for the next broadcast rights deal. The Big 12 contract isn’t over until 2025, but wanted re-commitments to start early to gauge the conference’s valuation from each network suitor.

Texas and OU chose to delay a response to Bowlsby, and in turn, contacted the SEC to begin discussions. Three months later, they agreed to switch to the SEC at the end of the current GoR in 2025.

If the GoR had a pathway for schools to leave early, Texas has the resources to certainly challenge the agreement. But they have chosen, so far, with 3 years still remaining, not to challenge it. And I’ve spoken to Texas alums with knowledge of the process who have said that there are no plans to challenge the GoR in court. They might attempt to negotiate out of it early with some type of payoff to the Big 12 with the new commissioner in place. However, nothing is on the table at this point.

[Mr.E.Recruit]

At what point can the ACC go to ESPN and say “renegotiate this deal, or we’ll be joining Fox Sports with our next contract?”

[Gna2r]

I don’t think that we as fans are complaining, as we would LOVE to keep things status quo with a thriving ACC, BUT we also don’t want to go down with a sinking ship so we’ve come around to *accepting that we may need to strike while the iron is hot- if-at-all-possible. However the rest of your points are true that maybe *none of the ACC will even have an option to move, which we will just have to deal with, BUT yes Miami and Florida have been dogshit for 10 years (unexpected), so we will have to see.

[HiltonHeadHoo]

My Clemson admin contacts tell me OTR they are desperate and determined to get out of the ACC. They cannot afford to ride this out and watch their football program slide below the playoff tier. With the $$$ trending the way they are … they simply cannot keep pace much longer. It would be financial Armageddon for many of their programs - academic and sports. Not sure what that means if GoR is airtight and they can’t rustle up another 7 programs to make the jump but that is the mindset.

[Mikeysurf]

The 2021-2022 school year had a “look-in” contract provision for ESPN and the ACC to discuss the different aspects of the agreement and make any agreed upon adjustments. We can assume if any significant changes have been agreed upon, Jim Phillips will announce it next week during football media days when he offers a “state of the conference” address, since nothing was offered during May’s league meeting at Amelia Island. I wouldn’t expect any earth shattering changes in the agreement. Believe the next “look-in” is 2025-2026 school year.

[AnonymooseHoo]

Between duke and uva law schools someone has to be able to figure out a way out of the GOR

[Mikeysurf]

I’m certain there are any number of contract attorneys in Columbia, Atlanta, or any other city they choose to go to, that will be more than delighted to spend Clemson’s money to find a way to pierce the agreement. But maybe they should make a call to Austin, to see what those top legal eagles that are burning up oil and gas money at $800 to $1000 an hour have already discovered.

[Gna2r]

Good points. It sounds like we just need to double/triple down on the ACC figuring it out, and then root for the other teams outside of conference, which is an interesting change for me on the football side.

[Hoosnext2]

It’s very much what you said both in regard to Texas and Oklahoma, as well as usc and ucla. Big difference between 3 years and 14, particularly as the financial upside (or downside) keeps skyrocketing.

[Mr.E.Recruit]

Thanks. Interesting.

[HiltonHeadHoo]

14 more years does not seem tenable for anyone in the ACC.

[Mikeysurf]

Guess I’m not understanding your point.

Sure, the opportunity to leave was nearer term for UT/OU and USC/UCLA. It is what helped to facilitate the discussions with the SEC and B1G. An aspect that seems to be overlooked, the timing of these conversations also coincided with the SEC/B1G attempting to maximize new TV deals as well. It was a win/win.

But in terms of the GoR, Texas isn’t challenging it. If they did and lost, any value Texas brings to the SEC would return to the Big 12 until 30 June 2025, as the 'Horns would be out of their current conference and forced to play in the SEC.

The ACC schools are in an slightly different place. There seems to be this presumption by some that the SEC/B1G are just sitting there with open arms for ACC schools. I’m not seeing that to be the case and many others are viewing the same way.

Until ACC schools can find a new home, why spend the legal fees to challenge the GoR? I’m sure certain schools have ways to examine all aspects of the GoR through the school’s general counsel, law professors, or even confer with the state’s attorney general office for public institutions to avoid running up huge fees with private firms. But that’s not where the most creative contract law experts reside. Plus, there is an assumption that some of this leg work hasn’t already been done by someone.

[Mikeysurf]

Cincinatti is part of the AAC. The AAC TV deal that began in 2019 pays each school roughly between $7M-$8M per year. They just made a 4-team playoff field against the SEC with $45M, B1G/$54M and ACC/$36M. So I’m not buying into all of this doom and gloom. Is it ideal? No, not by any means. And if I’m Clemson, they have every right to be pissed, because schools like UVA, Cuse, ■■■■, GT, BC, etc., have been riding off of their coattails and not investing enough in football. But I don’t agree it is cut bait and run for perceived greener pastures either. With a 12-team football playoff, the ACC can still get teams into the dance.

[buzby]

I’m not sold on the Cincy example.

They basically had the destroy any chance of making the playoffs for every other team in their conference for two straight years to get the chance in the four team model.

It is quite common for the SEC to have two (or more) teams with a shot to make the playoff before the conference championship game.

Also, UCF is a good counterpoint as well. Basically did the same thing as Cincy a few years back and didn’t get a shot.

[Hoosnext2]

I would simply argue it’s not a “slightly different place”. It’s dramatically different given the timeframes involved, the consolation that’s already take place, the additional money at stake and therefore the greater liklihood that those who aren’t proactive get left behind. I’m pretty sure that’s not slightly different.