1st group. They’re going to get more threes off, and then they’re going to open up the rest of the offense to get some easy stuff otherwise.
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My preseason capsule: There’s a version of this team that’s fairly easy to predict (meaning the outcome will be in a fairly narrow band, IMO), and then there lots of versions of this team that are fairly hard to predict.
The easy to predict version is if we allocate minutes similarly to last year, with BVP getting Kody+ minutes and the frosh and Taine mostly sharing Taine, Malachi, Carson, Igor minutes from last year. I think that team has a reasonable upside of 6 seed or so, and a reasonable downside of bubble team or so.** (Things that push up that ceiling: Reece found a jumper / Armaan refound a jumper / Jayden can shoot from 3 / Kadin got awesome).
The harder to predict versions are too numerous to mention, but range from BVP with starter minutes / role (all else the same) up to 3 or more new starters.
** Honestly, the downside is probably worse, but I’m trying to be an optimist. I swear, I’m trying.
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I think your (healthy) downside is reasonable. Not really sure why going to BVP from Kody would lead to a worse team than what we looked like at the end of last year. Last years squad had a few clunkers towards the end, but it would have never lost to Navy or JMU
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Kody averaged 15mpg which, imho, was too much. If BVP averages 15 something will have gone wrong.
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Yeah, I’m think something in that 15-20 range as the Kody+ outcome. Probably about 20. I don’t know how likely that outcome is. Probably pretty low. The most likely outcome is probably 1-2 new starters (0-1 if you include Kadin as a starter), with fewer guys in that 35ish range. But who’s getting the minutes and how they’re getting them is a bit of a mystery.
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I think BVP will average around 20 but with high variance. For example, I could see games where we need him to basically play 30 minutes at PF because Gardner gets in foul trouble or has a bad matchup that night. My main hope is that the big big change comes at the backcourt slots. Reece plays right at 30MPG, and we find ways to get Taine and McKneely time at the 2/3. No offense to Malachi but if Shedrick, Reece, Gardner prove steady for the defense, then it should be obvious that plugging in two shooters will be a big boost.
I really think a lot of last year’s issues were that Gardner and Shedrick as new starters had the defense looking really shaky and adding Taine to them would have had the wheels fall off. Hopefully this time around Gardner is solid and Shedrick starts to really be that next great uva rim protector, which lets us have some slack to put in more shooting
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Anything else on Traudt’s boot? A Creighton friend who is moderately plugged into Nebraska stuff texted me out of the blue saying “trouble in paradise for Isaac Traudt”? Getting clarification now. Probably just some bs but am genuinely curious if anyone knows about an injury.
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Papi with some foot-mauling?
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I expect Shedrick to be much better this year. Diakite and Huff broke through their junior years and Shedrick was better than either as a sophomore. I also expect Reese and Franklin to be improved this year and Gardner at the end of the year was much better than he was earlier. Anything we get from BVP and Isaac squared is a bonus. I don’t think they are a FF contender but are a Sweet Sixteen contender but they would have to hit their FF’s during crunch time which was a major problem in the NIT,
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2 of 3 Ms are no longer on the team, so people should bitch less about the Ms not playing. Offsetting this is the addition of 2 Is and one M, which brings us to 2 Is and 2Ms about whose playing time people will certainly complain. But one of the new Is is also the new M, so it’s tough to say which way the board goes with that because you can’t really double count. Then you have KC, whose 38.7 minutes a game will surely draw a similar amount of ire as last year, but without the possibility of yet another year of KC the net feels better there. Add in some angst about L and R and all in it feels like people are going to bitch about the same amount as last year, unless the team is better.
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I actually think people are really discounting BVP. I don’t expect him to be a star but he isn’t some scrub. I expect him to average in the neighborhood of 8-10 ppg with a few big games, he’s not just a Kody drag and drop. He’ll surely be in the rotation and is a big improvement from any of last year’s bench
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Agree with Box here. Also all early accounts make it seem he is really comfortable being at UVa etc. Not like he is lost. LOT if experience and apparently smarts as his academic record shows (not that that always translates to hoop smarts)
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First time in three years that uva will have a lot of continuity. Think that will help with defense and allow returners to be confident in the d a little more and focus on their offensive game. Replacing Kody as the sixth man with BVP will go a long way towards helping too. The limit on how good this team could be is whether taine or mckneely can have a sizable role on the team. If they do, uva could have a pretty damn good season
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R+L=J
(Ryan dunn + Leon bond = Joy in hoovile)
Something for the George RR Martin heads…
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This is exactly what I expect to see in those write-ups, except they will get a name wrong (Kasey Statesman or something) and then list as one of the returners someone who graduated two years ago. Just make those two changes and it’s ready for print.
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This is precisely where I come down. @JoeBoxley is spot on that the BVP for Kody is huge in and of itself is a huge change for this team. But just adding one or two other contributors, likely McKneely/Murray, but possibly a surprise from one or more of the other three first years.
One thing that might be worth watching, however, is the Traudt boot. All the talk has been about RS’s for either or both of Dunn and Bond, but now Traudt may be looking at an RS, maybe opening up some more opportunities for the other two this year.
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Traudt boot talk: Boots can be a big deal or a little deal. Hard to know which this is until we hear something. Can’t wait for those Italy streams. I’m sure they’ll clear up a lot…
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Can BVP help defensively too though? He’s not exactly that lanky wing we’ve been missing the last couple of years (thinking Brogdon, Hunter and Braxton, and to some extent Diakite, Wilkins and Akil who were all three more than serviceable on a switch to a small forward). Not sure I could explain why, but all those former players seemed to play a big role in holding the defense together as a cohesive unit. Feel like maybe Bond and/or Dunn will fill that role at some point, but not sure we can hope for that as first years.
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Yeah, every little tweak/roll gets put in a boot these days as a precaution. Most of the time we don’t even hear about it.
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I emailed the team and offered to be an appendix donor should the need present itself. I know what you’re thinking, but I’m no hero. I just think it’s the least we can do as fans.
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