It’s the eleventh anniversary of the Mark Sanchez butt fumble. It must be Thaknsgiving. Ah, the memories.
I’ll be traveling for the next couple of days for the holiday, so I wanted to make sure I got my picks in for the Thursday and Friday games. I’ll post my Saturday picks when Dragon makes his weekly post.
Mississippi State +10.5 vs. Ole Miss Ole Miss is the better team, but Egg Bowls don’t tend to be blowouts. Miss St. has the added incentive of being bowl eligible if they win. More importantly, they have their starting QB back. Prior to his injury, Miss. St. averaged 20 points per SEC game with Will Rogers at the helm (and 36 points per game in two non-SEC games). Without Rogers, they averaged 8 points per game. Rogers returned last week against Southern Miss and led the Bulldogs to a 41 point offensive output. In short, this is not the same Mississippi State team that in mid-season could not get out of its own way. Ole Miss will score, but not enough to cover the spread. Go Bulldogs!
Iowa vs. Nebraska over 25.5 A total less than 26 … wow. Historically, these teams put up some points against each other. The last four years these teams are averaging a total of 46. Of course that’s mostly out the window with Iowa on a run of 6 straight unders and four of those being under 23. Interestingly, the line on this one opened at Iowa -2 and has switched over to Nebraska -2. Presumably the thinking is that Iowa has nothing to gain by winning and will likely not put forth anything other than a bland vanilla effort a week before the Big 10 championship. Meanwhile, Nebraska needs this win to become bowl eligible. Look for the Huskers to get creative in the attempt to score against that Iowa defense. And I don’t care if that creativity works for them or against them. Nebraska is -15 on turnover margin during the season. One turnover or faked punt can take this from a 12-10 under to a 19-10 over. I’m talking myself into this one - give me the over.
UTSA +3.5 vs, Tulane Tulane is 10-1, but I’m not a believer, particularly in its offense. Tulane has yet to score over 35 points in a game, even against some objectively terrible defenses like UAB, North Texas, and Tulsa. They have failed to cover in 6 of their last 8 games. Meanwhile UTSA has been rolling, averaging 41 points per game in their seven game win streak, and covering 5 of those spreads. I picked the Roadrunners and their 7th year QB Frank Harris really early in the year and they let me down. They can make it up to me here late in the season.
Ohio vs. Akron under 41.5 We knew that Ohio was a strong defensive team, but it turns out that Akron is 31st in total defense. Who knew?? Akron hasn’t cleared 14 points on offense in 5 of the last 7 games. Ohio hasn’t cleared 20 In 4 of its last 6. Ohio is the better team, but can’t get to the MAC championship game because Miami (OH) owns the tie-breaker. Let’s go with the under.
Memphis vs. Temple over 64 Temple is 129th in total defense and 133rd in turnover margin (-20). They are likely to turn the ball over a couple of times against Memphis, a team that doesn’t need the help in putting up the points. The Tigers are averaging 45 points per game in their last five. Having said that, they are 2-5 ATS as favorites this year, including three failures to cover in the last 4 weeks when they won and scored 45, 59, and 44 points. I don’t feel comfortable pulling the trigger for them to cover a 13 point spread against a team that is 31st in passing yards this season. In the last two games, Temple QB EJ Warner’s cumulative stats are 49-93 for 603 yards 5 touchdowns and four interceptions. Just the sheer number of passes will extend the game and both the TDs and the INTs tend toward a higher scoring contest. I’ll take the over.
