I think Dent might be one of the most coveted in the portal. Will be hard to get
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Importantly Boyd started college in the 2020-21 season and then redshirted his second year, so he should be a grad transfer.
Understood, but like I said, if the moneyās really there, might as well try to use it. Land dent, keep iMac, blow half your budget in so doing, fill in with some lower-cost raw athleticism and you have a decent chance of being a tournament team year one.
Thereās just no point in trying to be a value investor, if the money is there. Pay up for a couplefew premium assets. If that strategy doesnāt work, we donāt stand much chance anyway.
Iām just using dent as an example because I saw him last night and he fits the mold.
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I agree, heās a good offense all by himself. But I donāt think itās just the money, itās also what our situation will be compared to who else might be after him. We might have a hard time competing with a more established team with more coming back.
Everyone (including me) brings up Chucky Hepburn as an example of needing a quality vet, but the thing with Hepburn is that he was not the high usage #1 option that he is now when he was at Wisconsin. So the quality vet might have to be someone you think can step into a bigger role but hasnāt been in it yet. And thatās also probably the sales pitch.
Why in the world would Dent want to play at UVa other than money?
Also how the F did he get so good in one or two years
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Ok, I understand he specifically will be hard to get. So forget about dent, specifically. Iām trying to articulate/develop my thinking around this concept of āit is hard to spend the money but itās there just in case.ā
It seems to me you have a distribution of potential approaches if you were hell bent on spending all the money. On one tail is spend all the money on one guy, just massively overpay for him and surround him walk on players. This probably would be a bad strategy but I bet you could find one player willing to accept all the money, therefore easy to execute the strategy.
On the other tail would be try to get letās say 10 guys and pay them all exactly equal amounts. So thatās a flat curve, while the first is very steep. Everything in between would be a curve with a steepening slope if that makes sense.
I can see the flatter curve strategy being harder to execute (ie actually finding the players to spend the money on and agree to come) because the competitive demand at a lower price point is going to be more intense.
But letās say the market for dent (or hypothetical top 5 pg in the portal) is $2 mm. It would be a much easier sell to land him if we say F it, hereās $3.5. Do that exercise 2-3x (donāt worry about the strict math here) and suddenly maybe you find yourself with a really strong core that you can surround with athletic role players. That team may not be better than Duke, but I bet itās making the tournament.
Why is anybody going to play anywhere except for money? My whole point is that if the money is there, the only return it is looking for is winning games. Thereās no point in not spending it. Go out and make a splash and lock in a fairly probable high finish in the league. Try to nickel and dime around āvalueā and how are you going to be better than Clemson or Miami?
This, by the way, is what a GMās job should be. Coach says āI need a point guard, a shooter, a PF, etc.ā and the GM has to know the market and what will actually land impact transfers and how to spread out the budget.
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Yea. We should have hired Richard. Is my point
Ok, now that we know Odom is the guy, letās add Bamgboye & Jennings, have Mallory make it official, and keep IMac, Gertrude, Robinson & Sharma.
If those things happen, portal needs?
Iām going PG, 2 athletic wings in the 6ā6-6ā8 range, and at least one more big.
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Full agreement with this. 1-2 players can have a disproportionate impact on team success. I would say Rutgers is the fail case for this approach, but that might be more due to betting the farm on freshmen to have big winning impact.
This is kinda what I was trying to get at. I think you still need to sell a guy on the role he will have and how he will be showcased, especially if he has NBA goals in mind. I assume money can paper over some weaknesses in the sell here. I guess it would be relevant to know how much more money a quality #1 option would need to choose our new situation over a more established Sweet 16-level (just using as a hypothetical). To your point, that is the GMās job.
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I get it, and Iām not disagreeing at all. Iām more taking it as an uncontrollable variable. We either have it for a given player or we donāt. We all agree that UVA is at least a āpretty good programā between history, league, facilities, etc. We can all debate those aspects, but basically they are what they are. We know we arenāt Duke/unc/Kansas and we know we arenāt Mississippi state/northwestern/Minnesota. In some cases our disadvantages will be insurmountable and in others we will have significant advantages.
The equation for outcomes over time is going to be some function of Xs/Os x budget, with some other variables that I think will have far less influence over time. If you want to be a top 15 program without a top 15 budget, either Odom has to be a top 5 Xs/Os guy (maybe he is maybe he isnāt, Iām not here to debate that today) or you have to spend your money better. Not spending the money doesnāt seem like the best approach, so spend it on impact guys.
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--------------------------------------Trilly Pro/Portal List
Jaland Lowe (Pitt)
Labaron Philon (Alabama)
Yaxel Lendeborg (UAB)
AJ Storr (Kansas)
Donovan Dent (New Mexico)
Loweās godfather is Jai Lucas dad. Either Miami 9r back to a texas school
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AJ Storr should go back to St Johnās. Odd fit at KU.
Iād keep expectations in check. Could be totally wrongā¦and you never know, maybe thereās the right guy situation where they could make a splash portal addition. But I just expect solid guys, a chance to be a good team.
I doubt Odom tries to go full Micah Shrewsberry and build from scratch (I wouldnāt mind) but I also donāt expect Louisville full on portal mania each yearā¦probably a healthy mix of trying to get on your feet while building long term.
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The Tennessee model seems right. They have hit gold on under the radar transfers, but have a solid mix of good players that have stayed and bought into a system.
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I think it starts with retention. Can he keep iMac, ARob, Sharma and Gertrude? Add Chance and one more recruit. Bring two from VCU. Thatās 8 players. Spend $$$ on 2-3 of the best portal additions possible. Thatās a 10-person rotation, plus Carter Lang. havenāt effed up the future for building, but havenāt gone foolās gold like Louisville, which has now dug a deep ditch for itself. Maybe makes the NCAA, but Iād be happy with a 12-8 record in the ACC and an NIT for next year. Paraphrasing HGN, build the machine not the product.
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Also important to look at his recent portal guys (with the big caveat of resource upgrade heās getting here)
Shulga - came w him from Utah St
Jackson - likely recruited him before, not exactly a star at Mich
Bamissle - from VA, mercenary, likely had a pay a lot for him
Russell - mid major star, those guys are always hit and miss - hit for VCU
SO, look for Odom to go after
- guys from VA that want back home
- mid major stars that he trusts his evals
- maybe slightly underperforming P4 guys, again that he trust would be better in his system
- one or two big swings that $$$ will do it. Likely grad transfers here
Iāll let @Hooandtrue fill in which guys might fit those descriptions
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An example of this from the past season at another school is Milos Uzan. 4-star guy who was only OK at OU in the first two seasons and then Houston plucked him to be a key guard for them.
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Yep. Trusting your evals and system fit are the key. Have confidence in Odomās track record here. Just hoping he can bump up the talent a bit to meet ACC levels
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With Shulga, they fended off Villanova who came for him hard. Maybe itās not that big of a deal, but I do like that heās been in a situation where he fought off a bigger/richer school for a player that he really wanted to keep. He also got him paid, which Iām sure took lots of finessing with boosters/donors, a great skill to have in the current landscape.