I personally dont know how different recruiting agencies come up with this numerical scores (.9521) etc. But its pretty easy to find each recruits 4 digit score on 247 Sports and they do a pretty good job of correlating to that recruits current skill at the time of their recruitment. Top recruits are scored close to 1.000. RJ Barrett the #1 in 2018 was a prefect 1.0000 and James Wiseman the #1 in 2019 was .9999.
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Thanks DG. Makes sense
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Great work!
Seven of the top 20 recruits Bennett has ever landed will be on the roster next year: Abdur-Rahim (3rd), Reece Beekman (7th), Casey Morsell (8th), Jay Huff (9th), Kadin Shedrick (11th), Sam Hauser (16th), Francisco Caffaro (19th).
Last year, when we won it all, we had seven of the top 20 recruits (Diakite, Guy, Jerome, Huff, Key, Hunter, Caffaro) he’s ever landed.
So there’s that.
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So of course the big question on everybody’s mind is what will 2021 bring us. For me, I’d like to define what success would be for 2021. As HGN has described, 2012, 2016 and 2020 were reloading years for recruiting and it was easier to bring in higher level talent since the year these recruits were to become eligible to play, our top skilled players were scheduled to leave. So historically speaking 2021 should be a bad recruiting year. In 2013 it was our 9th worst recruiting year, and 2017 was dead last. However, 2021 could be the year we break the pattern! Of course last year we won the national championship. Secondly perhaps there were some recruits who were turned off by our underwhelming post season history. That perception no longer exist. Our recent success could be the catalyst that gives our recruiting program a boost to the next level.
Something else Ive noticed is that we have probably invested our time in Efton Reid more than any other recruit. Something to consider is while 2021 historically should be a down year, for UVA bigs it may be a perfect year to convince top talent to join. Jay Huff was part of our top 2016 recruiting class, and because he was a redshirt, it pushes his eligibility back a year. Therefor 2021 could be the perfect year to land a top big guy target.
So for me, I feel fairly confident that we are going to change history and beat our previous down years in 2013 of .9057 and in 2017 of .8668. If we land a recruit in the top 100 I will be satisfied. If we land one of our top targets I will be more than satisfied. If we land multiple top targets than something has drastically changed! And if we dont get a single top 100 recruit like in 2013 and 2017 then I will be angry at the world.
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I’m not sure I agree. In 2021, we’ll have a loaded, balanced roster with no easy minutes available. We’ve already got Caffaro and Shedrick up front, Abdur-Rahim, McKoy, and Stattmann as wing/forwards, and Clark, Beekman, Morsell, and McCorkle in the backcourt.
That’s stacked. That’s nine-deep of experienced, talented players.
So if 2021 recruiting is a bust, Virginia is still a Top 10 team. There’s no “need”. And in 2022, barring attrition, you still have seven of them.
That’s why shooting for the stars makes sense. Land just one Efton Reid or Trevor Keels or DaRon Holmes and the class is a ridiculous success. But if Bennett fails? Well, picking up a transfer or a developmental prospect who can redshirt isn’t that bad, either.
It feels like 2021 recruiting is playing with house money.
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Nailing ‘21 feels like it’s way more important than a lot of us are giving it credit for. Here’s why:
I’m not convinced that both Stattmann and McKoy will still be here in 21. Could see one or both moving on. Hope I’m wrong but it depends how CTB gives minutes out the rest of this year and next. So getting another impact wing like Keels is critical.
Also not convinced that Carfaro and Shedrick are the answers down low (not enough data yet). They could turn out to be complete studs but we don’t know yet. So putting Holmes and Reid in the stable feels like it would give us a lot more future security.
The guards are going to be stacked but still have question marks elsewhere that a strong ‘21 class could help answer IMO.
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Is your feeling about Stattman and McKoy based on their use minutes so far?
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Really good point. I didnt notice that. Based on a historical perspective, we have lots of success in our future!
If you were to take what you just said and draw some comparisons between our 2020 roster and the rosters of 2012 and 2016 you can start to see a very clear pattern emerge.
In both 2012 and 2016 when our top target recruits were just rookies we had less success. 2012-2013 we were 23-12 and 2016-2017 we were 23-11. So based on the past, we probably should not have too high of expectations for our rookies during the 2020-2021 season but the 2021-2022 season we could return to 30 win seasons as history would predict…Also this year we will likely be breaking the pattern for the first time. This should of been a very strong 30+ win season for us. But winning the national championship has the power to change patterns. Obviously we should of had Guy and Jerome (and could of had Hunter if he would of not excelled so quickly) another year and the win/loss pattern would of likely continued with another 30 win season and then next year would be our weaker year.
Conclusion: Winning national championships changes patterns. We are having a down year this year when traditionally this should of been an up year. But the national championship also could very easily have a positive effect on our recruiting pattern! 2020 was a great recruiting year and 2021 historically should be an awful recruiting year. I have faith that is going to change!
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Replying to your second comment here. I see what you are saying. We do have Caffaro and Shedick up front, and perhaps they would compete with Reid for minutes.
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That and expectations for jabri and the other wings next year.
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Gotcha I can follow that logic. Wasn’t sure if you had any other insight.
The uneven classes were a major part of recruiting inconsistency. You really can’t look at the history of it without fully putting that into context. Subtracting freshman from expected openings at the time of the Fall signing period is a rough simple way to gauge attractiveness.
2010 5 open - 2 freshman +3
2011 4 open - 6 freshman -2
2012 5 open - 4 freshman +1
2013 3 open - 5 freshman -2
2014 5 open - 2 freshman +3
2015 1 open - 5 freshman -4
2016 6 open - 2 freshman +4
2017 1 open - 5 freshman -4
2018 5 open - 4 freshman +1
2019 4 open - 4 freshman 0
2020 4 open - 4 freshman 0
2021 4 open - 4 freshman 0
In every plus year, they’ve done pretty well, with the exception of 2018. Bennett’s choice to sit on 3 open scholarships that Fall instead of settling hurts right now, but it’s also resulted in an evening out of the classes and hopefully a continued consistency going forward.
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Interesting, so ideally going forward we will bring 4 new recruits on each year?
The opportunity to have 4 most years is about right. The hope is that you’re never in a situation where you need to fill that many. It’s okay not use scholarships.
Right, so that way we dont get in a tight jam and have to settle early in the recruiting process for a lesser desired recruit out of desperation? For instance if we have 6 open scholarships one year, we better start filling some of those spots early or else there would be a chance we get stuck what is left over for the year. Also when we dont fill scholarships, is that when we give our team managers a spot on the roster for a year just to help in practices, etc.? Maybe also give temporary slots to walk ons and use them as flex players that understand they could be off the team next year if the scholorships fill up?
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Bennett doesn’t settle much. It’s what I love about him. Recruiting style is the total opposite of playing style. High risk as it gets. He always expects to find his Brogdon at the next live period. Now when those periods are up and he absolutely needs another guy, of course. And at the late signing period, they’ll look for bird in hand opportunities.
Yeah they’ve always given open scholarships to walkons. I’m surprised we haven’t seen anything about that happening for this 2nd semester yet.
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Could Chase Coleman get one?
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Another question Ive been sitting on for about a week now. What is a “live period” exactly. And how many of them are there in a year. Ive heard you reference the April and July live period, but why are these times so special. I assume recruits tend to commit during these two months for some reason?
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Live evaluation periods are the off-season time when coaches are allowed to attend events to watch potential recruits. They’ll get more evaluation work done in one weekend then than the 6 months before. They find players, decide who to recruit. It’s when most scholarship offers are earned. Coaches watch games literally all day, flying from one event to the next. Stay tuned in April. You’ll get in depth coverage right here. 
Up until last year that was just an AAU thing. 2 weekends in April and 3 five day sessions in July. The NCAA has shaken things up. April is still the same. July is now only one 4 day weekend for AAU. They’ve added some other stuff in place, but most of it isn’t that useful. The two weekends in June for high school team events has promise. They just need to get better participation than last summer.
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What is the connection between the NCAA and the AAU? What I’m curious about is how the NCAA gets to dictate to the AAU when they can schedule events?
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