If this is 100% true (probably isn’t but they say it is), then the best strategy would be to insert the green team early to reduce your margin of victory, thus boosting your opponents’ NET. Since your own NET doesn’t matter, it’s pure upside. (It’s also so marginal it doesn’t matter, but that’s no fun.)
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The NET shouldn’t be published until January, as some people have said. Since it seems most people don’t understand the concept of small sample sizes, we’ll all be consistently flustered when we see Miami jump 20 spots for beating a low major by forty.
I dont really understand why, if the idea of NET is to use it for the quadrant system rather than a direct ranking, it needs to have a team index ranking for measuring quality wins. That seems like in trying to make a more perfect system you’re actually causing more issues than a pure efficiency metric.
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You nailed it on both points.
I really am surprised the NCAA doesn’t hold off on releasing the NET till later. Their goal should be to make people trust that NET is a good metric – and by releasing it before it’s ready, they undermine that trust. Even when it starts making sense later in the season, the damage is already done in a lot of people’s minds.
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TWSS - I’ll be here all week folks.
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I truly think it was a preemptive move to fend off complaints from guys like Jeff Goodman and Gary Parrish (to unfairly pick on some specific people) about how “wins and losses need to matter.” But of course those guys just complain anyway because it is in their self-interest to do so.
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Some interesting breakdown by Chris Graham regarding the recent uptik in UVA’s transition game.
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Two things, in my mind. One the defensive end, all the new guys (to include the returning guys moving into starting roles) are simply settling in, getting incrementally more reflexive in the rotations, being in better position, and that better position will help with rebounding. We’re still undersized and lacking the usual board hounds we’ve boasted in the past, especially at the 5 spot, but we’re at least slowly working our way towards respectable. On offense, Tony switched to the triangle which is far more appropriate for this roster and encouraged more transition confidence, and couple with (again) new faces settling down, I think we’ll see things go well. That, and, you know, replacing a Reece-Kihei backcourt with Reece + 2 good size and shooting wings.
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What will our ranking be in AP poll when it’s released today?
- 21-25
- 16-20
- 11-15
- Top 10
- Unranked
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voters
Reddit poll has the good guys at #18. That feels right to me, but I think AP will come in lower, maybe #23 or so
https://old.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketball/comments/18fwjmg/userpoll_week_6/
We were 26th in the last poll and 5 teams within striking distance ahead of us lost, 2 of which were to ranked teams. I’m predicting #23, passing Duke, tamu, sdsu
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C’mon, surely AP will find a way to keep Duke ahead of us.
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I’ve seen behind-the-scenes how the sausage is made for the AP poll. At times, I even helped make the sausage. I wouldn’t take anything in it very seriously.
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My working assumption is that 75%+ of the voters in the AP poll are using the “move winners up a little and move losers down a little but make sure you vote for duke” methodology
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It’s such an inexact science… and the fans eat it up every week to debate why one team is above or below another.
I equate the AP Polls to be like when the referees spot a ball in football with their eyes and then use that spot to do an “exact” measurement with the chains. It’s absurd. Haha!
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Interesting. While making the sausage did you by chance get any info on how they also make their poll?
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I know this topic has been well-debated on here, but I don’t have a huge problem with how the polls are done. They are a bit of a “wisdom of crowds” phenomenon in that despite an initial anchoring to preseason expectations and program biases and the obvious fact some pollsters aren’t even paying attention, at the end of the day (or season, really) I don’t think the results they produce are all that far off from being pretty reasonable, at least to a significant degree. Also, the polls aren’t very meaningful. Sure it’s nice to be on the ticker on the bottom of the screen, or nice to be ranked top 10 vs #13, but at the end of the season only 1 ranked team didn’t lose its last game and teams are being judged more by their performance in “the madness” than on where their AP ranking shook out.
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Clever!!
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