UVA Basketball Thread 11/23

Game 3 vs. North Carolina A&T:
Offensive Rating: 127.0
Defensive Rating: 81.0

Individual Offensive Rating:
Isaac McKneely: 202
Ryan Dunn: 190
Taine Murray: 171
Jacob Groves: 152
Leon Bond: 145
Blake Buchanan: 136
Jordan Minor: 131
Reece Beekman: 118
Andrew Rohde: 100
Dante Harris: 57

Defensive ratings:
Ryan Dunn: 59
Dante Harris: 72
Jacob Groves: 77
Blake Buchanan: 77
Reece Beekman: 85
Isaac McKneely: 89
Leon Bond: 91
Andrew Rohde: 94
Taine Murray: 94
Jordan Minor: 95

Net:
Dunn = +131
McKneely = +113
Murray = +77
Groves = +75
Buchanan = +59
Bond = +54
Minor = +36
Beekman = +33
Rohde = +6
Harris = -15

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Will be a good field

https://x.com/bahamarhoops/status/1726340807177982432?s=46&t=bv9cjw4g0eEZorinzCXyaA

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Will keep this brief, because @dave92 has reminded me that it may behoove me to be a more productive member of society before the thanksgiving break.

Things I’ve liked so far on offense:

  • Getting more points off turnovers
  • Getting more 2nd chance buckets
  • Much higher usage, slightly more efficient Reece
  • Higher usage, much more efficient RD (and shooting well from the line!)
  • Shooting well as a team, esp. from 3
  • Blake’s offense in general
  • Dante as a change of pace

Things I haven’t liked:

  • Would’ve expected a bit more rim pressure (at least, I was hoping for it)
  • Not much ball screen except as a brief look in sides, or getting into sides, or the odd quick hitter
  • Not shooting nearly enough threes for a team that shoots so well
  • Dante as a change of pace mostly only leading to Dante shooting from the midrange

Hoping we don’t get into the Gard-Tony dance-off thing, where the one of them is like “You call that deliberate? I will show you deliberate!!” But I fear we might…

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On ball screens, one issue is that it’s a little too easy to just duck under a ball screen against Reece right now; he’s either got to take and make a couple of threes off of that, or we have to start connecting on some quick re-screens to open up some gaps for Reece to playmake.

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Up to #24

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I like that 11 bullet points = brief.

Not inaccurate, but still entertaining.

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The brief version is we are roughly #50 (49) in torvik, without preseason adjustment

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Couple things that puzzle me about this poll. How does UNC move up 6 spots after beating UC Riverside at home? Also, how does Texas move up 4 spots after needing a buzzer beater to beat Louisville?

Also, Miami is not a top 10 team. They may be in a couple months, but they are not there now, imo.

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One thing I like that you should also like — we’re getting to the line for a FTA per every 2.1 FGA. Dunn is at 23 FTA and Buchanan at 25.

It’s early — but that’s really good, and efficient.

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Because most of the voters are pretty useless and rarely follow every team that close.

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I’m hoping for BB to lower that FTA/FGA ratio a bit by finishing better through contact (and thus earning only 1 FTA instead of 2)

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I like it for two reasons - #1 It’s great, and #2, it’s evidence of my brevity.

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Did 6 teams lose random games above them? Probably it.

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No, actually they didn’t, with the exception of FAU. Ultimately it doesn’t really matter, but it makes no sense to me at all. There are top 25 rankings from national guys on X that make much more sense.

Edit: Also Arkansas, but those are the only two.

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For those of you who like a ranking system with smarter, more well-informed, and more handsome voters (not to mention better taste in sports message boards), sources close to the Elite 8 poll tell me it will be back next Monday, or so, after some Feast Week over-reactions.

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Do you think that is accurate?

And what do you mean by “without preseason adjustment”?

Probably depends what you mean by accurate. I suspect it’s returning the correct answer, per the algorithm. But it’s limited sample size and I think even the “no preseason adjustment” numbers include the preseason adjustment for opponents. I don’t think it’s worth much for a few more games, but also, it’s fun, and it helps keep me away from my job, which, if not yet abundantly clear, I’m clearly looking for.

(just to be clear @EmbracePaceUVA that’s the OEff number – #6 DEff and #8 overall)

Until sometime in Jan. or so, Torvik and KenPom include their preseason numbers in the data, and they fade away slowly. That is, heavily influenced by preseason after game 1, and successively less so, as games go by. I like Torvik this part of the season because his website lets the user manually remove the preseason adjustment, but Ken doesn’t.

https://x.com/thefieldof68/status/1726659874871001294?s=46&t=bv9cjw4g0eEZorinzCXyaA

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Hate to agree with Goodman but I was about to make the same point. If they want to keep doing the media poll, which I would be fine if they didn’t, it needs to be modernized. It’s setup as if it were still the 1970s when college sports was regional. Now it’s easy to choose a group of reputable national writers who would do a far better job.

https://twitter.com/GoodmanHoops/status/1726674651307536469

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Regarding the “without preseason adjustment” at the end of the day the underlying algorithm still includes the same assumptions that led him to suggest Dunn would play <5% of minutes this year. His preseason projection for UVa was so absurd that I don’t think he can be taken seriously.

People need to remember there’s a human(s) behind all of this data and just like the humans that vote in the AP poll, they have flaws, biases, and assumptions that impact their rankings.

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