Game comes out during first week of paternity leaveā¦ may or may not be the end of my marriage
7 Likes
Canāt buy confidenceā¦
7 Likes
Still think a lot needs to break right this year, and we need a hot start in the first five games: UofR, at Wake, Maryland, @Coastal, Boston College. Not saying we need to go undefeated in that stretch, but 3-2 at a minimum with 4-1 what we really want to see. And on top of that, of course, need to keep enough of the starters / 2-deep healthy through that stretch so we can build confidence from a hopefully strong start.
Hate to say it but I donāt see us winning a game in November. @Pitt, @ND, SMU, and @VT. Maybe we can steal the road game at Pitt, theyāre a hard program to peg in the post-Pickett era. SMU seems to have a lot of positive buzz coming into the season and is probably going to be a tough one down the stretch once weāre beat up. So if we want to bowl, this could be a lot like the 2017 season (Benkertās final year), where we needed to hit 6 wins by Halloween. Heck, even that āmiddle 3ā in mid/late October of Louisville, @ Clemson, and UNC is daunting, can only hope that we get a good home-field performance to get some upsets there. This program feels at least a year away from being a capable road team.
10 Likes
I think youāre right about the November stretch. I have serious concerns about it, lots of games on the road and quality opponents. I can see the 3-2 run during Aug/Sept. But that still means the team needs to go 2-2 in Oct. against BC, UofL Clemson and UNC. Doable with 3 being at home. That leaves the Pitt game on Nov 9 with the big circle as the opportunity to get the sixth win.
I appreciate the optimism but the math to get to six wins feels sketchy at best.
7 Likes
Everyone here is going to feel real dumb when Colandrea leads us to the playoffs and is nominated for the Heisman. Donāt think heāll win it cause, you know - gestures hands indistinctly - politics. But heās taking us to the promised land!
4 Likes
I feel good about UNC at home for what the matchup is on paper: Scott is Mack Browns house of horrors
3 Likes
Same for whatever reason Scott Stadium is a jinx for the TarHeels so I do like them. Iām also not sure how good UNC will be this year with a bit of a rebuild.
1 Like
I think winning home games is critical this season. Maryland, Louisville, UNC, and SMU are all big games. If we can win 2 of those, I think thereās chance at a bowl.
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Agree, you need 5 DBās in todayās spread game, but you have to balance that with added mass on the DL otherwise you give up too much up front. We were the worst run defense in the ACC down the stretch under Bronco as a result (hell, defense was even bad our Orange Bowl season).
Hereās what Iāve got for our front six with last seasonās stats:
| Position | Starters | Reserve | Reserve |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bandit | Kam Butler, Super Senior, 6ā3" 262 lb 4 GP, 4 GS, 23 Tkls, 5 TFLs, 3.5 Sks | Mekhi Buchanan, Sophomore, 6ā3" 230 lb 12 GP, 0 GS, 20 Tkls, 1.5 TFLs | Miles Green, RS Freshman, 6ā2" 232 lb |
| Nose Tackle | Jahmeer Carter, Super Senior, 6ā2" 312 lb 12 GP, 12 GS, 35 Tkls, 2 TFLs, 1 Sk | Jason Hammond, Sophomore, 6ā1" 291 lb 7 GP, 0 GS, 3 Tkls | Anthony Britton, RS Sophomore, 6ā3" 298 lb |
| Defensive Tackle | Michael Diatta, RS Junior, 6ā4" 279 lb 12 GP, 0GS, 18 Tkls, 1 TFL, 1 Sk | Bryce Carter, RS Junior, 6ā3" 274 lb 7 GP, 1 GS, 9 Tkls | Terrell Jones, RS Sophomore, 6ā4" 274 lb |
| Defensive End | Ben Smiley, Super Senior, 6ā4" 270 lb 9 GP, 8 GS, 15 Tkls, 3.5 TFLs, 2 Sks | Chico Bennett, Super Senior, 6ā4" 252 lb 11 GP, 10 GS, 34 Tkls, 4.5 TFLs | DJ Jones, RS Freshman, 6ā3" 272 lb |
| Linebacker | James Jackson, Senior, 6ā3" 236 lb 12 GP, 12 GS, 80 Tkls, 4 TFLs, 1 Sk, 1 INT, 5 PBUs | Stevie Bracey, Junior, 6ā0" 227 lb 11 GP, 1 GS, 20 Tkls, 0.5 TFLs | |
| Linebacker | Kam Robinson, Sophomore, 6ā2" 227 lb 12 GP, 8 GS, 71 Tkls, 4.5 TFLs, 1 Sk, 2 INTs, 1 TD, 1 PBU | Dorian Jones, Super Senior, 6ā0" 241 lb 11 GP, 8 GS, 56 Tkls, 2.5 TFLs, 1 Sk, 1 INT, 1 PBU at Cincinatti | Trey McDonald, RS Sophomore, 6ā3" 230 lb 12 GP, 0 GS, 12 Tkls |
Noteworthy how senior-heavy we are, half of the 2-deep is in their last year of eligibility (Butler, Carter, Smiley, Bennett, Jackson, and Jones). Next year could be rough.
Also, a few guys in there with injury histories.
6 Likes
Didnāt realize how strong a year Kam Butler was having. Need him to stay healthy, DL was a disappointment last year
4 Likes
Do you have a projected depth chart for the whole offense and defense?
1 Like
I have my notes, itās not (currently) in an easy copy/paste format for LRA. I also admittedly didnāt pay as close of attention to the spring depth chart and injury situation the last few months as I have in years past, so itās possible Iām not current on some of the depth chart shuffling, especially at positions where the returning production isnāt as established as here.
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Agree completely. And the senior laden bunch is a lot of why Iām cautiously more optimistic than most for this years team. Iām expecting a bowl.
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I agree with others in this thread that recruiting is looking better this year. The 2-deep has more talent and depth. But when you look around, weāre still far behind other teams in the ACC. I was really hoping Elliott would make more of a splash with higher rated talent, but he hasnāt. If you look at the past 3 recruiting classes ā¦
2024: 15th out of 17 ACC schools (85.9 average recruit rating from 247)
2023: 13 out of 14 (85.4)
2022: 11 out of 14 (85.6)
During those years, we had one 4 
recruit. Thatās not gonna cut it. Itās gonna put you in the bottom half of the ACC every year. The 2025 class is averaging at 86.2, which is better, but still only 11th (currently) in the ACC.
I want him to change my mind, but I think this is about how well Elliott is going to recruit at Virginia. And itās not good enough.
3 Likes
HS recruiting hasnāt been great, no doubt about it. But I think this staff has really excelled in the portal. And truthfully for a program like ours at this current stage thatās more important. Bring in a stable of guys who you could have 2, maybe 3 seasons who are ready to play immediately and try to win with. Let the HS recruits see what can be accomplished here. Thatās going to be a slower build.
1 Like
Heās been recruiting with one hand tied behind his back. The Ops Facility was at best a promise for his first couple classes, this '25 group is the first he could actually physically take recruits to and show it off. We were behind the curve with NIL, and I pin little of that on Elliott. Couple that with our usual academics and losing history hurdles that put us behind on most recruits, and yeah it was never going to be an immediate turnaround. Oh, and that doesnāt even include the shooting casting an unspeakable pall on the program that, like the Unite the Right protesters some years prior, had a hard-to-quantify effect on maybe scaring more recruits off.
I donāt care how good a salesman a guy is; if he doesnāt have a quality product to sell, heās going to struggle.
7 Likes
You make great points, and I intentionally left the portal out of my post because Elliott and staff have pulled some solid contributors. I mean, Wicks. My god.
But you mention āslower buildā and my only counter to that would be, yes, but a build that will inevitably plateau because itās built around serviceable, good-not-great players.
4 Likes
Wicks was a holdover from Bronco. Unless Iām misreading something.
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Washington would be the transfer I would point to.
While I understand @Sknyluv point about a potentially limited ceiling for CTE and his recruiting class. There was no way CTE was going to come in and start pulling 4 and 5 stars unless UVa opened up the NIL checkbooks and brought in a bigger name coach.
The current staff is maximizing their potential. CTE was always meant to the guy who leads to the guy.
9 Likes
I guess we can look at that in 2 different ways. To put it as politely as possible TE was left with a not suitable roster following the previous staffs departure. Had a QB and some pretty good WRs, outside of that nothing. Then the tragedy happened. TE once again had to essentially start like it was day 1.
@StLouHoo points are all completely valid reasons for continued optimism. As has been mentioned here before, the 3 stars weāre now getting have very competitive offers. Thatās progress be it small.
5 Likes