šŸ€ UVa Men's Basketball - January 2024

6-5 record. Phenom U woulda probably been 8-3 if Rohde had played 22-23 minutes instead of 28. And Taine Murray getting some run

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Better watch out, you’re veering awfully close towards the ā€œTony breaks our players’ shotsā€ conversation from last season lol.

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Lol nah Rohde has a weird pull up form. Needs to spend the offseason with shooting Coach Tony Bennett and whoever Kihei worked with to make his release more smooth and quicker (compared to the shotput form Kihei had his first year, much quicker release later years)

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No i think it refers to someone else on the team who can initiate the offense other than the primary initiator (AKA the point guard). We’ve only seen one person capable of this type of role and that is Rohde at this point. At least I believe that’s what most people are referring to when they talk about it on the board.

And to Wahoos it has come from many places. From TB directly, from watching his teams the past 15 years, and from people on this board.

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Makes sense then… as people say TB likes 2 real ball handlers playing together

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fixed it for you.

Like someone could kill me cold blooded in the alley way and TB watches it all take place but then sees on sport-reference that the killer has a 2.5 assist to 1 turnover ratio and is probably like ā€œThe thankfulness pillar allows me to be thankful for this happenstance encounter to reform you through that skillset of yoursā€

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ā€œMustā€ discourse:

W/o knowing details, I think 12 wins in the ACC (12-8, 21-10) will be at least firmly on the bubble, heading into the ACC-T. We are 4-3 now, so that means, 8 wins in our last 13.

Must win all of these three:

  • @Lville
  • ND
  • GT

Must win three of these four home games (bringing us to 6):

  • NCSU**
  • Miami
  • Pitt
  • Wake

Must win two of these four rohdes (bringing us to 8):

  • @Clem (fwiw, KenPom has this as less likely than UNC at JPJ, but he’s a dirty Hokie, what does he know)
  • @FSU
  • @VPI
  • @BC

Must win one of these two to really feel comfortable (unless we win 9 of the above 11) and they become must win if we don’t get to 8 with the above games and must try really hard to get blown out too bad:

  • UNC
  • @Duke

** So, NCSU is 75% of a must win. #MATH

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Guys can also be affected when they dont get as many shots per game as they used to. Rohde shoots 6.7 times per game at Virginia vs 13.6 attempts per game at St Andrews last year

Different mindset maybe

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I think also just confidence and maybe being fearful of making mistakes in return for earning playing time vs being sound.

It feels like it’s kinda two birds one stone, in that there is an offensive adjustment that maybe gets made, after we gain some momentum and confidence with wins and more experience, that both gets the most out of Rohde and also gets Gertrude on the floor (neither of them really excel in the mover blocker sets even though Rohde is a good enough passer to go through the motions).

Rohde going 3-10 from the free throw line is meh but the fact that he only has taken 10 as opposed to 119 last season is strange. Competition doesn’t explain it because even against our weakest competition (Tarleton, A&T, NCCU, Northeastern, Morgan State texas southern), he’s onlly attempt 5 of those free throws. Defering a lot and very passive as opposed to dynamic and confident.

Someone needs to remind Rohde ā€œOkay you are comfortable now. But you have to begin to assert yourself a little. You got that ā€œlow lifeā€ tattoo. Show us what it meansā€

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If you play 30 minutes oer game you proly shouldnt be worried about playing time at this point

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I think it’s like ā€œIf I do anything unsafe Im going to get Taine Murray’edā€ :wink:

It’s a cycle. Cause he plays like he’s worried about playing time while playing safe, he gets those minutes because he’s safe.

Safe or unsafe doesn’t change the fundamentally flawed shooting mechanic. It’s wind up/two motioner. It’s like loading up a catapult and flinging it.

Now im remembering elementary school where this kid and his dad who was a carpenter would make minicatapults that kids would buy and use to launch cicadas during that cicada brooding phenomenom. It was a cicada war zone with the kids man.

It’s because the ball weighed more than Kihei in his first year.

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And Wake hit game winner with 9:59 left
and then all the way to:
UVA hits game winner at Ga Tech with 6:07 left (Jordan Minor with the game winner)

Good away from home progression.

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Here are Rohde’s on-offs (with garbage time removed):

(A is Rohde On, B is Off)

Sometimes there’s a place for safety. Like with all on-offs, I don’t think it’s right to attribute the entire difference to Rohde, but you could see why one might conclude he is having a positive effect on how the team plays.

One might (correctly) observe that he plays a ton of minutes with Reece, so maybe it’s more about that; however, the Rohde + no-Reece lineups have been even better.

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I have us as the 1st team out today. 1 Q1, 4 Q2 wins and only 1 bad loss isnt a terrible resume at this point. We have 2 wins over teams in my field too which helps. My bracket will be here this year for those interested
https://raleighwx.blogspot.com/

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Looking at this alongside his player rating, you can see why poor analytics literacy will drive people into civil war.

We are much better with him on the court.

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#BenchiMac #BenchReece #PlayRoDog31MPG exactly-and-decline-to-field-a-lineup-in-the-other-9-minutes

Earnestly – my poor analytics literacy takeaway of our Rohde minutes with the on/off data is the same takeaway as looking at a plain old boxscore is the same as just watching the games – ā€œwe sure play that guy a lot!ā€.

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The debate shouldn’t be whether or not Rohde has a positive impact on the team when he’s playing well. He does. He’s a glue guy who, used right, can do all of the miscellaneous things from linking the team up through good passing, setting up the offense, to playing very good defense. He often makes all of our other guys play better despite rarely taking on a large scoring role himself. There’s plenty of video/statistical analysis illustrating that this is the case and that, net/net, he’s justified his starter’s role and playing time.

The more reasonable discussion, to me, is whether or not he should have the level of leash that he has - because when he’s not playing well it can be pretty rough; especially on the defensive end. He’s really better as a 1 or a 2 than a 3 and there are some matchups where he just struggles against the opposition’s SF and there are some games where he’s just playing a step slow.

I don’t think it’s very reasonable to take the stance that he shouldn’t be playing much/have a significant role on this team but I do think it’s reasonable to argue that he shouldn’t be plugged into 26-32 mpg no matter what.

Contrasting with McKneely who can have a pretty terrible first 15 minutes of a game but then just absolutely go off for the rest of it, that’s not what you’re getting from Rohde ever - so there shouldn’t be as much reluctance to sit him down when either the offense is stagnating or when his defense isn’t there.

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Yup! Been talking about this for a while with a few of the guys. I am compiling, refining, and building my evidence base before I unleash it.

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https://twitter.com/RTD_MikeBarber/status/1749528581724840246?t=PcKFxYNflygH1Ge3RRv9hg&s=19

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