Lol Memphis (54) is is 7 spots behind UVA (47) in the netā¦
Sure why not
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I knew we were better than them! Things that make you say āWhat?ā
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KenPom wrote on his (I think free) Substack last week about how Memphis is ranked in the top-10 but outside the top-30 on his rankings. This was written before Memphis lost this weekend, so the exact numbers are off now, but the general idea should hold up.
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Memphis has been pretty bad lately.
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Is that Kyle Guy merch?
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Hmmmā¦he should have done it THIS offseason before competing in the ACCā¦sorry in a bit of a pissy mood today.
Next two games are dangerous because they offer no real chance to improve our resume only to harm it. UL has been feisty at times in league play and we better come out ready to play our we will get down 10 in the 1st half and have to battle. I think maybe we have motivation to drub ND after their drubbing of us. Have to win these next two to avoid adding a 2nd bad loss.
Then the real season begins in February 9 straight games that will be Q1/Q2 (currently 4 Q1, 5 Q2), Assuming we win these next two and our last one at home vs GT which wont be a quality, I think we probably need to go at least 4-5 in those games to be in contention for a bid that is 12-8 in league play. Assuming all things static, which they wont be, but if we say win 2 Q1s and 2 Q2s, that would give us 3 Q 1 wins, 5 Q2 wins, and 1 bad loss heading into the ACCT. In that scenario we would probably be right on the bubble.
For comparison sake, the bubble is different every year but last year the last several at-large teams had:
Nevada 4 Q1 wins, 3 Q2 wins, 2 bad losses
Arizona St. 5 Q1, 4 Q2, 1 bad losses
Pittsburgh 4 Q1, 3 Q2, 2 bad losses
Miss St., 4 Q1, 4 Q2, 1 bad losses
Providence 4 Q1, 3 Q2, 1 bad losses
NC State, 1 Q1, 7 Q2, no bad losses
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I donāt think last year will be relevant to this year, at least in terms of comparing Quad wins/losses. Pretty much every team except UConn has flaws and warts on their resume. I think it too early to tell where we will be on selection Sunday. We could be comfortably in, we could not even be on the bubble, we could be squarely on it. Agreed that the 3 results we really want to avoid are losses at Louisville, home to ND, and home to GT. Beyond that, itās hard to predict what the bubble will look like.
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I donāt think 4-5 is going to do it. I did once upon a time, but our opponents from the non-con have all kind of dropped of and a lot of the bubble teams have racked up some really good wins. I guess it is always possible because you donāt know what the bubble will look like but I donāt think we can lose more than 4 more games in the regular season.
I think it would be really hard to keep out a 22-9 power conference team with only 1 bad loss.
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Iām definitely a UVA fan because Iāve already talked myself into being nervous about Saturday
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We got blasted by a terrible ND team. Thatās reason enough to worry about any game
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Every year the bubble is different of course, but those are good general guidelines I think the NET quad error. Of course it is hard to predict at this point, but it is still fun and worthwhile in my opinion to speculate.
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My speculation is that it would have us barely in or barely out heading into the ACC tournament.
I actually think we beat Pitt, WF, UM at home and BC on the road.
I think then if we could win 1 of @ Clemson, @ FSU, @ VT, UNC, @ Duke we will be in decent shape. Call me crazy but I think we can win one of those.
Of course we could lose all of them or most of them too, February is make or break assuming we win the next two.
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Assuming we win the next two, which are must wins imho:
7-3 finish: in regardless of ACCT
6-4 finish: likely in but canāt get blown out first round of ACCT. 1 ACCT win and weāre a lock
5-5 finish: need a strong showing in ACCT, possibly a champ game appearance
Anything less: need to win ACCT
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Likeliest in order are @clemson (we always play them well), @FSU, UNC, @VT (call me crazy but even though unc is very good I just never feel good playing in that barn), @Duke (obvious reasons)
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If my math is right, thereās an 85% chance we win at least one of those games based on KenPomās win % for each game.
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Although the standings dont mean much, we COULD be tied for 2nd after this weekend. We win we are 6-3.
FSU is 6-2 but hosts UNC. Duke hosts Clemson, they probably win, but Clemson could absolutely win that one and the Duke is 5-3. State and Wake are 5-3 both could lose as they both play on the road, but irregardless we could easily be up to 2nd after this weekend. Crazy to think about after where we were at 8 days ago this very hour.
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Can anyone remember a game before when UVA had more offensive rebounds at halftime than the opponent had total rebounds at the half?
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