🏀 UVa Men's Basketball - January 2024

What a wild ride this season has been … all from Torvik.

Last four games (since Jan. 14):

Overall: 10th
Defensive efficiency: 2nd (ridiculous 83.8)
Offensive efficiency: 180th

End of exam break (Dec. 7 to Jan. 14)

Overall: 240th
Defensive efficiency: 133rd
Offensive efficiency: 313th

Season opener through exam break (Nov. 6 to Dec. 7)

Overall: 11th
Defensive efficiency: 2nd (86.1)
Offensive efficiency: 91st

If we can keep playing D at a high level and get our offense into the top 100, I’ll get excited about the ceiling.

16 Likes

Offensive rating in Acc games so far:

  1. Murray 153.4
  2. Dunn 130.6
  3. Minor 113.3
  4. Groves 108.9
  5. McKneely 108.2
  6. Beekman 107.5
  7. Buchanan 104.4
  8. Rohde 78.1
  9. Bond 68.8
  10. Harris 66.3
  11. Gertrude 62.0

Player Efficiency Rating in Acc games (PER)

  1. Dunn 29.3
  2. Beekman 24.0
  3. Murray 22.8
  4. Minor 21.6
  5. McKneely 16.6
  6. Buchanan 15.7
  7. Groves 11.9
  8. Bond 6.1
  9. Gertrude 5.7
  10. Rohde 5.5
  11. Harris 2.8

For those that can’t seem to figure out why we go on runs when Taine plays … see above…

2 Likes

Besides just those numbers, what does he do in your estimation that is so valuable? Not denying, just curious

Because yeah, the data certainly tracks that we play really well when he’s in there

7 Likes

Some of it is akin to “correlation = causation” in that Murray’s minutes tend to come at very specific times when Bennett thinks he’ll be a good answer. If he were to play in all situations, you could expect the data to look less rosy. You can’t fault the dude for playing well when called upon, though.

10 Likes

Endogeneity problem

4 Likes

The results of this poll are backwards. 66% say we make tourney. 56% say we get double bye. Acc is getting 2-4 teams in tourney, so it’s easier to make double bye than tourney.

I was feeling good about the tourney after the last four but playing with Torvik tourney cast, 12-8 and 2-1 in ACCT is probably OUT! So I think 13-7 or better or a great acct tourney run are possible but I peg the odds just below 50%. FWIW, Torvik has us like 10% at large, 2% auto coming before Lville game.

3 Likes

Taine right now leads the team in true shooting % and Effective field goal %.
He doesn’t retreat when he gets the ball on the perimeter.
He’s strong and tough.
Go back and watch the two plays in transition for Louisville. The first one was when Rohde was the one back and he literally just got blown by in a one on one situation for a layup …then the next time Murray was the one back and he walled up and forced a layup brick. He’s just tougher and stronger.
I wish Rohde would catch the ball and every time rip it through and get to triple threat… it’s literally the first thing we teach 7 and 8’year olds at practice… don’t waste your dribble retreating or going sideways… dribble with a purpose.

4 Likes

I’ve said it before but I’ll say it again. Due to they way the models work, I feel they underrate our current team, because our ratings are based on our play pre-Jordan minor era. Now, how much of a bump I’d give us vs the models is questionable. I want to think we have a much higher than 10% chance. But we are going to have to flip some games vs the models having us lose. Clemson, VT, BC are the real opportunities. Probably takes two wins where we are projected losers.

Edit: torvik’s team cast tool is pretty fun. Really wish we hadn’t lost that nd game

6 Likes

Torvik expects us to lose four of the last five. Need to go 3-1 or 2-2 in that stretch and also win one of these @clemson and @FSU

Stattmann is the most egregious example of doing this that I can recall. Used to drive me crazy

2 Likes

Taine is just super decisive. He will try to penetrate almost immediately and even if he’s passing around the perimeter he whips it around almost the moment he gets it

5 Likes

I’ll save everyone the Google search…..

9 Likes

Win against ND and then our goal should be to win 2 out of the next 3 (@clemson, Miami, @fsu). I think at that point we’d be on the right side of the bubble for sure.

4 Likes

Good Burger Reading GIF

6 Likes

Agreed. 22-9 (13-7) is likely threshold for getting in. Could see 21-10 with a couple ACCT wins as well, but like the first option plus one in ACCT better.

Potential path:
-Win 1 of 4 Q1 remaining games (at Clemson, at VT, UNC, at Duke)
-Win 4 of 5 Q2 remaining games (Miami, at FSU, Pitt, Wake, at BC)
-Win all remaining Q3/Q4 games (ND, GT)

If we can steal 2 of 4 Q1 games, could definitely afford slipping up in 2 of 5 Q2 games.

4 Likes

They expect UVA to beat ND and then lose 4 straight? I think they beat ND, and go 3-1 in the next four.

4 Likes

I’m curious on how the efficiency ratings are averaged. There are a few outlier performances included in there with limited floor time.

Now that said, I have changed my tune and think that Taine is a better player than previously given credit. He is decisive and picks high opportunity spots. Would like to see him continue to use his strength to his favor - not sure he does that enough but it’s a plus when he does.

That said, he’s a still very low usage guy. Does he make the overall offense better despite that? I think yes, depending on if there are other playmakers on the court. Otherwise, I think his impact is dulled a bit - but would be very happy if he can prove that wrong (or if there’s existing data to say otherwise).

4 Likes