TV: ESPN2
5 Likes
I would very much like to win this game.
18 Likes
Apparently Louisville favored by 6.5.
3 Likes
That suggests a pick em at JPJ? I don’t buy it.
1 Like
Anyone know if the G league dude is actually playing against us? Wouldn’t be ideal but it would potentially fuck up their rotations and chemistry. He’s talented but I don’t mind a team experimenting against us, especially if Brown is still out.
1 Like
He would seem to be an obvious target to exploit on offense.
1 Like
With Brown- I don’t know that we have a good answer to guarding him
Without Brown- gimme the hoos all day
1 Like
I have a feeling iMac is going to pick this game to break out of his slump, and being on the road doesn’t help us. But even so, I think we have a reasonable chance if Brown is out. Certainly if Brown AND Conwell are out. Even if they’re both back, they may not be at full speed, and Brown at least will be rusty. This was always going to be a tough game, but looks like we could be facing them at the right time.
Is going 2-1 too greedy for this next 3 game stretch?
3 Likes
KenPom predicts we get 1.6 wins out of the next 3 games, so I’d say 2 wins is just the right amount of greedy.
11 Likes
I want exactly 1.6 wins. I want to see what that looks like.
7 Likes
That extra 0.6 of a Q1 victory could be what puts us over the top.
4 Likes
This is our biggest game of the year, so far, and our best opportunity for a headline-grabbing win. Conwell/Brown health and availability and Funny Story readiness loom large.
4 Likes
Will be interesting to see this week’s poll. 9 of the 10 teams directly in front of us lost this week, most of them by double digits.
5 Likes
Fwiw, Parrish has the two of us at 18 (them) and 19 (us).
KenPom has it at 15/16.
In WAB, it’s 21 (us) v. 34 (them).
I’ll leave RPI to Jerry Palm.
I would be all over that line.
2 Likes
Stats-oriented preview links:
- Torvik (Louisville +3.0): T-Rank - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank
- Hoop Explorer (doesn’t do game predictions): Virginia v. Louisville
- Bonus Hoop Explorer link to where the “B” lineups are no-Brown and no-Conwell: Louisville without Brown or Conwell
- These minutes have come against weaker comp on average, so I’m mostly looking at how this changes their lineups. It’s a lot more Hadley at the 3 as they run out of perimeter players otherwise.
2 Likes
Hoos moneyline.
6 Likes
It’s shaping up to be a strength-on-strength game:
- On offense, we both want similar shot charts (Louisville is even more midrange-averse than we are).
- On defense, we both try to turn 3s into midrange jumpers or contested rim attempts.
- We’re better at defending the rim, they’re better at shooting at the rim
- We both are good at getting into transition and keeping opponents out of transition.
One key area on each side of the ball for us:
- Offense: Can we get our 2nd-chance game going against them? They are a good defensive rebounding team overall, but that’s what’s given way in 3 of their 4 losses (Duke is the exception, beating them through piercing their rim protection).
- Defense: Can we take away Fru rolling to the rim without helping off their shooters? Fru finishing off of rolls is a hugely efficient part of their offense and feeds into their catch-and-shoot game (and vice versa). We are pretty good at making it hard to hit the roller with how GrĂĽnloh and Onyenso control the space in drop coverage.
3 Likes
line opened Louisville -3.5, feels high if Brown/Conwell/Johnson not playing
3 Likes