Hope our O wakes up a little and gets going!! I know teams are trying to keep us off the field to mess up with our rhythm.
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A little bit of upward change for us. Our odds of winning at Duke actually went up a bit, back into toss up territory, but most everything else dropped a little.
Still has our most likely outcome at 10-2 which is probably where Iām at now, but I wouldnāt be shocked if we lost 2 down the stretch.
He makes us a 17.1 point favorite on a neutral field against UNC, so heās showing a ton of value on the hoos but I wouldnāt touch it with how banged up we might be and the fact that I think this might be low scoring.
I am deeply deeply concerned about the next 2 weeks despite the good odds this is showing.
IMO weāre way more talented than UNC thanks to their attempts to dumpster dive in the portal, but that is still Bill Belichick over there so the prospect of any sort of chess match scares me a bit. I should probably accept heās washed but heās been the most dominant thing in football for basically my entire life and I canāt yet.
If I had to make a bet Iād take us and the over. They run the least plays per game in the NCAA and our offense looks bad right now and itās Belichick but thatās a low total for how weāve played this season. Hoping we can return to form, get out early and force them to chase.
You could show me some tempo stats and convince me that our most recent offensive showings are the real ones not the early season ones and talk me back into that under.
Look at me being an optimist! (Now that Iāve bought in weāre definitely getting upset)
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If Iām counting right (using only my little brain) that comes out to about 3.6 wins. So essentially computer would guess 10, but Iām sticking with 9
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Yeah it has that in the top right- 9.6 expected wins, 6.6 in conference
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I (quite annoyingly) sounded the alarm about Wazzu. I understand concerns about going to Chapel Hill and facing Belichick, especially how we have looked lately. That said, Iām way more confident about this game than the last game.
UNCās offense is just so historically bad. Theyāve only broken 20 points once, and that was against a very bad FCS Richmond team and even in that game they barely cracked 300 yards. They havenāt broken against a P4 team this season.
I will be extremely disappointed in Rud if we let this offense get going in the slightest. Have to assume we hold them to 20 pts or less.
On offense, health is a big question. UNCās rush defense is the one respectable aspect of the entire team. So weāll need to throw the ball. I just donāt see how theyāll be disciplined to cover our WRs. Maybe if Ross is out Iāll be more concerned but I just think we will find a way to score such that their offense canāt keep up.
I see something like 31-17 Hoos.
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Will also mention that while weāre undefeated at home this year, weāve generally played better on the road under Tony. I also donāt expect a very hostile environment in Chapel Hill on Saturday so vibes could be good without the pressure of a big crowd like this past week.
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Yeah health is the big question mark for us. There is about 5 points of something in Vegasā line, just not sure what it is. It might just be a pace adjustment honestly. I was shocked when I looked up the plays per game stats and UNC was at the very bottom. I figured that would have been a little higher just because theyāre losing enough that they have to play some tempo.
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That place will sound like a church by the 2nd QT UNC fans are checked out and losing a heart breaker last week did them no favors.
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I mean they could put one of the big 12 games at 1030 and give us 8, ESPN2, but we probably want that standalone espn game ratings for the accās new silly revenue model
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Yeah I am reticent to give them the 2.5 points for home, but that means thereās almost 7 points of fishiness in Vegasā line!
I think it must really come down to their tempo.
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I hope we donāt start too passively on defense. We need to try to dominate that offense from the jump. Rudās strategy seems to be bend but donāt break until the 3rd or 4th and then turn up the heat. Itās been working well but Iād like to see us try to impose our will on an offense like UNCās right away.
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Iām not worried about Bill and his son out-chess-matching our staff. Theyāre all still actively learning the college game. But I am worried about health and motivation. What Bill did in New England was instill a perpetual mindset of āus against the worldā, a persecution complex, to great success. Think deflate-gate. All the negative media about UNC in recent weeks is just what he wants to galvanize this team, and their loss at Cal is the kind of āget pissed off / rally to win the next oneā result that should have them locked in at practice this week. I could even see their fans showing up because itās us, weāre ranked, and this is their opportunity to salvage the back half of the season.
Our defense is playing better every week as Kam is rounding into form and the defensive backfield gels and gains confidence. But the offense is slowing down with injuries hitting every position group (TE Twitty, RB Brown and maybe Taylor, WR Ross, OL Wilson plus other nagging, and maybe QB Morrisās shoulder). Chandlerās accuracy hasnāt been consistent of late, and I worry this is a game heāll need to make longer throws to carry the offense.
See this as a 27-20 kind of game, defense hopefully generating more turnovers to carry us again.
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Line looks like its taken some money for UNC down to 9.5.
One of the Big Bets on Campus guys took UNC and makes it a 7 point game. Mentions our squeakers the last couple of weeks and UNC getting Gio Lopez back in his brief write up.
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ā¦as a good thing?!
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Huh? Lopez played against Cal.
Would rather face Lopez than Max tbh
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100%
Hear ya, and think you make some great points. But to counterā¦
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Noon kickoff makes me think the fans wonāt show up actually. Wouldāve been more worried with a 3:30pm or 7pm kickoff. Expecting a strong UVA contingent in attendance given rivalry and our ranking
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Also worry about the offense but Wilson back should help a lot in the run game. Should be able to establish the run enough to make it easier on Morris
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Could see the opposite effect. Losing that way can be the straw that breaks the camels back and demoralizes a team. Throw in the noon kickoff and we have the chance to put them away early. How much fight do they have if we punch them in the mouth?
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Would be slightly disappointing result imo. Gio Lopez is really bad, definitely the worst P4 QB weāll play all year (including Stanfordās QB). And their run game isnāt impressive either. I hope we donāt let them get to 20 which theyāve done exactly 0 times this year against P4 teams.
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Also worth noting that according to TE in his presser, going on right now, that Cam Ross is back in practice. And he said Wohlbaugh, Wilson, and Vaughn are all ready to play against Carolina. Great news.
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Spread is sitting around 9.5ish I think Vegas is having a difficult time catching up to what exactly the Hoos are and honestly UNC is tough to handicap despite the fact they are awful.
The O/E has dropped a ton and may be the lowest total of the season for the Hoos (Iāll verify by the time of the pod). That speaks to the lack of faith in UNCās offense.
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