šŸ€ Virginia at Wake Forest, Sat, 13 Jan, 1400, ESPN2

How much is our lack of a rim protector hurting our defense? Havenā€™t really given it much thought or analysis but anecdotally feels like something weā€™re missing to at least deter some of the dribble driving weā€™re seeing.

Itā€™s non-existent in the small ball (Groves and BVP at the 5) type lineups weā€™ve been running a lot the past two years, and I wonder if Buchanan projects as meh, passable, or good in that category. Eye test says heā€™s got a ways to go as a shot blocker. Robinson on the other hand looks a little springier.

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Things Iā€™d like to see from Tony after watching Houston-ISU the other night:

  • Switch up the defense in-game. Take a few plays off from pack line and run man or zone. ISU switched to zone on their last defensive possession- didnā€™t work out but definitely disrupted Houstonā€™s original plan.

  • More set pieces for iMac or Groves. Kelvin Sampson set up a beautiful play for Crier to get an open three - not only to get the points but also to get him going.

  • Call the timeout early. Again, loved Sampson calling a timeout after ISU went on a mini-run. Called the above play out of it.

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Our rim protection numbers are solid, just coming in non-traditional ways. #32 in opponent 2P%, #53 in opponent FG% at the rim, #7 in block%. We are middling in % of opponent FGA taken at the rim, perhaps that is coming from post-ups though.

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No I donā€™t really think thereā€™s a need for complete overhaul, but I would agree that there could be some changes to the pack line that could help given the number of three point shots teams take (and are able to hit) now. Extending the outside points of the ā€œpackā€ could help. Generally a pack line is considered to be at 16ā€™ from the basket, could pushing it out to a 17ā€™ starting point be enough to not allow the ā€œeasyā€ inside looks while also putting the defense out farther to contest more threes? I think so.

As far as a Reece Eli iMac Bond Dunn lineup goes I tend to agree with @haney. Thereā€™s just not enough size there to avoid being bullied by most competent bigs. There are some matchups (hello, Miami) that a lineup like this could be effective but for the most part itā€™s just not strong enough inside to get enough run.

Now a lineup with Bond Dunn and Blake? Thatā€™s getting closer. Biggest problem now is that none of the three have enough experience in the system for it to be a noticeable difference as opposed to playing another ball handler or shooting threat in the ā€œ3ā€ spot or having groves at either 4 or 5 to shoot.

But general premise of switch ability is huge in todayā€™s game. Our 2019 ā€œdeath lineupā€ of Ty Kyle Dre Braxton Mamadi was a great example. They didnā€™t have to switch every matchup, but it was very difficult to get a net positive matchup against them because of their versatility and the athleticism offered from helpside. Looking to the future a trio of Bond, Cofie and either Blake or ARob could set up a lethal grouping similar in next few years.

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I was so excited to see a new thread about a new game. But then I realized it was all about defense.

Change of Pace Take: we arenā€™t winning because we canā€™t shoot. We win when we have shooters. We lose when we donā€™t. Take IMACs shooting percentages out of our team totals, and itā€™s hard to look at - like put on the welding goggles before to do a deep dive.

I think we would be fine if we could actually shoot, even with the same exact defense. It will get better but itā€™s already better than most teams.

Our offense and our shooting is a bigger barrier to success than our current level of defense.

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disagree. Think the defensive breakdowns are psychologically screwing everyone over, leading to less confidence and overthinking.

Do think the 3pt shooting weakness is there even when we play well, but we can win games when we are mentally strong.

Offense sets the ceiling. But itā€™s hard to focus on that when we donā€™t even have a floor to stand on

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Justin Ferber at Rivals has it 75-60 Wake Forest.

Single digit loss will make me hopeful things are improving. 20+ loss = NIT outside an ACC title run.

That 10-15 point page = more of feeling the same and taking it game by game in terms of season outlook.

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I think I will watch until the first post double => wide open made 3. Then I think Iā€™ll have to turn it off.

The 20 point Saturday afternoon losses are just not fun

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Definitely putting a few bucks on Wake to win +10 as an emotional hedge.

I really want to see us sustain energy and composure. Plus, I have a deeply held belief that English people shouldnā€™t be allowed to play basketball or cook Mexican food. So this is personal for me.

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(gotta love the old youtube intros. Also never thought Wake Forest would have me feeling this way)

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I am still having a hard time wrapping my head around where we are now as opposed to a month ago. That said, I really havenā€™t seen any reason for optimism. Wake is also better than State, I think Ferberā€™s prediction is reasonable.

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I just donā€™t understand how teams keep scoring 70+ when we have the returning ACCDPOY and a short list candidate for NDPOY

Cause the rest of the team sucks defensively (either unathletic, small, or defensively not sound and jumping at every pump fake), the double and hedging doesnā€™t really play to their individuals strengths (and at some points takes away from that strength), and just young guys adjusting to both college ball and what UVA requires defensively.

Dunn needs to stop jumping on pump fakes and helping at weird times as well; his decision making has been punishable by other teams.

Still of the strong opinion that if we donā€™t double burns so heavily vs NC State, itā€™s a single digit lose if not a win without the momentum breakers and collapsing psychologically. We are not 20 points worse than NC State or Notre Dame, but we schemed and executed as such.

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Need experienced bigs to set those screens and understand assignments/intricacies of such plays.

Hopefully Buchanan becoming playable again gives us more offensive freedom. Late in the NC State game we actually ran a successful DHO move between Buchanan and McKneely.

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I guess Iā€™m also just disappointed because IMac, Dunn, Bond have a year in the system plus the extra time, practices, and games from the Italy trip. And we somewhere canā€™t figure out how to win games while having a 50% from 3 shooter, and two of the best 4 or 5 defensive players in the country

We simply have never been a top 20 team and relied so heavily on so many young guys. Thereā€™s no precedent for that. So at that super basic level, all of this kind of makes sense.

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Could also just be that they are not that good. Its a team full of role players.

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I find it hard to believe that a D1 player at any age canā€™t be trusted to run a designed play halfway through January.

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Not trusted to run the play. Trusted to be on the floor. Just up until recently Buchanan and Minor were not even seeing the floor much.

Now that Buchanan seems to be back into being a staple in the rotation, that might allow us to do more of a variety on offense.

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Will throw a little bit of karmic good vibes into this: the WF game will the first game our newborn who came on Sunday will see* (good job dodging the NCSU game, little one), so it would be great to start her life as a UVA fan off as a win.

*sleep through

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