Iâm feeling pretty good about this game. We have the edge in some pretty significant categories:
UVA DAY
PTS: 87.6 80
Opp Pts: 67.8 70.4
REB: 43.4 33.3
BLK: 7.5 4.4
3PP: 37.9 33.5
TO: 75 113
So, while they generate about 3 more steals per game, theyâre turning over the ball at a pretty high clip at 12.6 to our 9.4. Also, the rebound differential is entirely due to our huge advantage in OR. We have 130 to their 80. Finally, while theyâve gotten to the line 42 more times than us, theyâve only made 8 more.
Last I looked, we were #2 in offensive rebound rate on KenPom, which is an absolute departure from the Tony Bennett philosophy of avoiding offensive rebounds like the plague.
One of the most demoralizing features of the late TB era was watching other teams get 2, 3, or 4 long offensive rebounds off of missed 3s. Now itâs us getting those boards.
Preview from BUR weekend watchlist (not sure if pay link)
#62 Dayton vs. #24 Virginia (-5), 12 PM ET, ESPN2.
Both these teams excel via their usage of stretch-5s on offense, allowing them to open up the court for drives and mid-post attacking from their 4-men. Johann GrĂźnloh (Virginia) and Amael LâEtang (Dayton) are not true high-volume threats from deep, but they can pull their opponent away from the bucket. Thatâs critical, as both players are effective rim protectors (particularly GrĂźnloh).
That should allow for big games from other scorers: slashing wing Malik Thomas and mismatch forward Thijs De Ridder for the Cavaliers, jitterbug guard Javon Bennett and scoring wing DeâShayne Montgomery for the Flyers. Virginia just blitzed Texasâ overmatched defense, and rookie dynamo Chance Mallory has been a serious spark plug off the bench, as well.
Keonte Jonesâ presence could be critical here. The Flyersâ late portal addition will be the best athlete on the court, using his lanky limbs to disrupt Virginiaâs offensive flow. He can also be an effective slasher on offense, and if he gets De Ridder in foul trouble (the talented Belgian recently fouled out of back-to-back games against Marshall and Northwestern), that could swing the outcome of the game. - Jim Root