Brady Wilson day to day with a calf strain. Metcalf has been repping at C this week with Wigenton and Wyatt (both of whom have been a little banged up) up next at Guard.
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Stew picked us as his upset of the week. Ralph liked the pick. They note FSU has looked good but hasnât done anything or left Tallahassee in weeks.
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First true road games can always be tricky
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Afraid the âfsuâ or hype around them doesnât psych dudes out. Gotta punch them first and go for the W!!
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We gotta play fearless offensively. Offense seems wired to do so. Defense ⌠we will need some FSU turnovers I think.
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I was able to obtain a copy of Desâ script for the first offensive possession of the game. The first play is a time out. The second, which is really the first, is a punt. Theyâll never see it coming. Unfortunately two injuries to OL are also in the script on these plays.
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I asked Grok about this game ⌠âFlorida State will win this one, pulling away in the second half for a 34-24 victory. The Seminolesâ superior talent and momentum from their 3-0 startâhighlighted by that statement upset over Alabamaâshould overwhelm Virginiaâs high-flying but vulnerable defense, which has already leaked points in ACC play. UVAâs offense is explosive (45.5 points per game, tops in the ACC), and theyâll keep it close early with QB Chandler Morris slinging it and a deep backfield committee, but FSUâs run game (led by dynamic playmakers like Duce Robinson and Micahi Danzy) and QB Tommy Castellanosâ growing chemistry with his receivers will exploit the Hoosâ secondary. The road environment at Scott Stadium adds some upset juiceâUVAâs won two of the last three in the seriesâbut the No. 8-ranked Noles are built for this, and their defense (allowing just 19.5 points per game) ranks higher than UVAâs sieve. The odds align with this: Vegas has FSU as a -6.5 to -7 road favorite (implying about a 65-67% win probability), while ESPNâs FPI gives them 60.4%. Dimersâ simulation model (10,000 runs) echoes that with a 67% edge and a projected 33-26 score. Even fan chatter on X leans FSU, with most picks seeing them covering or winning by two scores, though a few Hoos optimists see a trap-game upset. If UVA forces turnovers (theyâve got playmakers like LB Kam Robinson), they could push it to the wireâbut FSUâs covered massive spreads (+13.5, -45.5 twice) already this year, so expect them to handle business and stay in the playoff hunt.â
@JBHoo and myself will be going live tonight with our weekly JB & Dragon Pod. If you have some questions drop them in here and we might get to them. But I guarantee itâll be a fun watch.
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Biggest game of Elliott era? FSU run defense is a stone wall statistically. Can we pass protect well enough in a one dimensional offense?
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These are the questions that make me enjoy podcasting.
Love it
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Nah, I think the Tech game last year. Chance to beat them in Lane with a back up qb, get our 6th win and make a bowl, and deny them a bowl. It might be the biggest home game of the TE era?
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Thatâs a good one. Probably the right answer because of the leverage win or lose plus it being a rival.
This one with a win does become the biggest, but a loss isnât nearly as big of a deal. Could probably say that about the next two.
The games against Syracuse and Duke his first year were pivotal in my eyes because they were when my optimism for him basically completely faded, but I realize I am a miserable pessimist who didnât really like the hire in the first place.
UNC, W&M, and Duke in 2023 are decent candidates too, especially that UNC game at the time. Lose one of those and I really do think we might have fired him at the end of that season. We were down 13-3 in that W&M game pretty well into the second quarter. Winning that UNC game gave him just enough of a spark of life to credibly continue. WIthout that or losing the W&M game that season would have been pretty hard to come back from.
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Thereâs no way we wouldâve fired Elliott after his 2nd year given the circumstances around how his 1st year ended. Plus no donor was going to pony up for his buyout, which was close to 18 mil at the time.
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It will be if we win. Not if we lose.
Right now, the biggest game of the year is/was the NC State loss. It is, currently, the tipping point game, maybe for Elliottâs career â so it is and was and wouldâve been the most important regardless of outcome.
Tbh, the game where I kinda turned on Elliott was the UNC game last year. A big rival, on our home field, who wasnât that good, and we let them dominate us. Came out flat. Underrated turning point. Like, we couldâve at least gone to an AL East bowl if we won that.
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Yup, I remember UK doing that and thought it was more for liability and employment purposes than tax purposes, but I could be wrong there.
Also sorry to you and @AdventiveQuasar for the redundant discussion on this thread. I just saw you guys posted and talked about this stuff in the ACC thread before I brought it up here.
I do think that even if VT gets its budget up over 200M by 2030, it wonât be in the top 1/3 of the ACC and might not be in the top half. It sounds good now, but itâs probably just the cost of entry by that time. But thatâs also trouble for us since weâll have to find money and keep up too and we have a lot fewer students to charge fees to (and I loathe the idea of mandatory student athletic fees to support the intercollegiate athletics program and hope we can eliminate them entirely or have state law just ban them).
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Iâve gotta a feelingâŚ.
Itâs gonna happen!!
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I actually view that one in a different way. We were so bad with a 3rd string center that I think it really reinforced pushing the idea of playable depth. I mean sure yeah every coach will say itâs important but seeing how painfully obvious it was in that game which couldâve been a major turning point if we had won kind of forced the push to get as many actual playable dudes as possible IMO.
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real test for TE and team will be the the response to the next two games. If we drop to 3-3 and still win out or perform well I will be happy!
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