Let’s go Hoos let’s go!!!
Starting Lineup
*Andrew Rhode … (improved shooting and delivering dimes)
*Tain Murrey … (27 points in his last 2 games and is also our most effective slasher to the basket from the perimeter. Also delivering dimes)
*Imac … (our best 3 point threat)
*Cofie … (defense getting better plus intangibles. We have not had a player like him since De’Andre Hunter)
*Elijah Saunders … (have not had a player with his inside potential since Anthony Gill. Can also stretch the floor from 3)
With Saunders and Cofie down low we can actually play some inside out game which opens up the floor for our perimeter shooters as we saw in the 2nd half vs NC State
Finally sprinkle in some more ARob and commission him to use his muscle to box out and crash the defensive boards
I believe this will be our starting lineup, barring injury, versus Louisville
Did anyone get a definitive answer on why Ames left the WF game so early?
NCS?
Not definitive- but seemed to be just coach’s decision… he still looks a bit slow with the ankle too.
Curious what folks think of Louisville as a match up for us.
They are a good offensive rebounding team, they get to the free throw line a lot, and they turn teams over. Chucky Hepburn may be a nightmare for our ball handlers, as he was with Reece last year against Wisconsin. We’re susceptible to a lot of those things.
On the flipside they are shooting the 3 ball under 30% and they shoot a ton of them, third in the nation. Although it’s ticked up to 35% over the last four games (where they have shot between 26 and 39 three pointers per game).
Kinda feels like one where we pull out a 3-5 point win if their 3 point variance is typical, but if they shoot decently it could wear us down pretty quick. That might be 80% of the story.
Seems like a rough match up in terms of style of play.
Would assume they are more talented than us individually. And have put together a decent resume for the season plus a win over UNC.
To win, gotta hope they revert to being cold behind the arc and we make ours at a high clip. Try to limit TOs.
They have been a different team in their games with KaSean Pryor (#27 on T-Rank) vs without (#64 in the games without him). They’ve flipped from being great defense and average offense to good offense and average defense. In particular they’ve really dropped off in being able to force turnovers (24.9 to 14.5 turnover% on D) and protect the rim without Pryor (43 to 56.1 2P% on D). On offense their foul drawing has ramped up in his absence and they’ve also cut down on turnovers more.
Also see their offensive rebounding rate has been mediocre since his absence (113th). They played like 28th most efficient team with him, 64th without.
On net all of that seems good relative to our strengths.
I don’t think this is a horrible matchup for us considering they no longer have Pryor, they’re more talented than us at guard but very thin in the frontcourt. As long as we’re able to beat their pressure and keep their rebounding at bay this is a winnable game, barring them getting unusually hot from 3.
It’s tough as hell to win on the road in the ACC, no matter what the quality of the conference is. Hope that holds true here.
Good thing we never have a road game against Louisville. Game are either at JPJ, JPJW, or a neutral venue.
4.5 point dogs. Think I actually like the spot for us here. UL coming off a huge win. Home Saturday ACC game even sans students should mean a solid crowd.
We match up pretty well with them. Not too undersized here. My biggest concern is generally speaking it’s easier to slow down a fast paced team and rattle them… won’t happen with them playing through Hepburn. Hopefully they don’t have a hot shooting day.
Louisville -5.5. A bit bigger than I expected.
I don’t put much faith in the Vegas lines, but I am surprised. The ESPN predictor (which I also don’t put much faith in) has it close to a 50-50 game. I think maybe some bettors are over-reacting to Louisville’s win over UNC. They may not realize that UNC is not very good this year.
Seeing it 4.5 -5.5 depending on where you shop it. Generally a sign theres either some.decent money moving or there’s a bit of uncertainty around it on the whole.
That ESPN predictor matched with bettors emotions is a interesting correlation. For instance Ohio st opened at a 6pt favorite agaisnt Texas despite the Espn predictor favoring Texas at 51%
how we feeling today ??