I’m not sure I agree that 11-9 would be a 50/50 chance, not in this weak ACC. I think 11-9 is probably a good prediction, just think it would put us as either barely getting in or more likely out.
Problem is, if your team is one of the last to get included, how do you put a % on what your chances were? Only the selection committee could make that assessment. That’ll be a debate when the time comes I imagine.
I mean, we can talk about odds or not talk about odds but you’re the one bringing up very specific odds.
I feel like you’re doing vibes and putting numbers on those vibes. Which is fine, but they don’t really work as numbers.
Well let’s say it another way, I think it is more likely UVA misses the tourney than makes it, but it is close. So I wouldn’t say 50/50 but I wouldn’t say Zero. Either way I’ll be “wrong” because if we make the tourney it was 100% and if we end up NIT then it was 0%.
But my position on this is unchanged from prior to the season. What I’ve seen so far is what I expected with some game to game variation, climate vs weather.
I was hoping that we’d see Dunn step up as a scorer, that would have changed things. I was hoping that Rohde would match his preseason hype, he hasn’t. I was hoping our offense would do a better job of getting IMac good looks. And while I never had high expectations for Minor, I thought he’d at least be mediocre. Instead he’s non-existent. So everything I was hoping that would happen that would lead my initial assessment to be wrong hasn’t happened. Some of it could still happen and that’s what I’m hoping for.
I guess my real issue is you’re not really doing tourney odds, you’re doing “are we good?” odds, and calling them tourney odds, because if you were doing tourney odds and hadn’t changed your odds from such a low number over the last 2-3 games or so (I forget when you originally said the 35%) then you’d be doing an odd type of tourney odds.
There are 68 teams in the tourney and not all of them or good or have fans with 100% positive vibes!
I would say every team that makes the tourney is good.
I originally said 35% prior to the season.
Okay, if your view of our tourney odds hasn’t changed from essentially only 1 in 3 in the preseason, even though we are 9-2 with both losses in quad 1A, then I feel pretty comfortable telling you that you’re not doing tourney odds. You’re doing vibes.
Facts.
Just say you don’t think we’ll make the tourney. I would disagree but think it’s a reasonable opinion. Saying 35% chance is just making up numbers and the actual odds are much higher.
The only time during Bennett’s tenure that 9-2 to start a season didn’t get us into the tourney was the 2013 team. And it lost to ODU in game 12 — and that ODU loss was probably the difference between in and out.
I see us 13-7 (12-7 in the ACC) rest of the way. As said, mostly because the ACC is mediocre as is our schedule. That puts us at 22-9 going into the ACC tourney. Likely just on the good side of the bubble
If we’re 13-7 in the ACC and 22-9 overall and none of those losses are to ND or Louisville then we are likely a 7-8 seed, maybe 9 or 10.
Agree, details will matter but that’s a high seed-ish resume (a larger number, not a high rank, which alway confuses me) not a bubble resume IMO
Also, the point I was sorta trying to make with Galileo is that “are we a tourney team” and “will we be good in mid-March” are both very open questions, but we have a lot more data on the tourney question than the “will we be good?” question.
Because that is not what I believe. I think there’s a chance, I just think it is a little less than probable.
It is an assessment of the capabilities of this team. I don’t know what people want to call it but that’s not how I’d define “vibes.” But hey, people can call it whatever makes them feel good.
Seems about right. This team has a low-ish floor as we have seen. Some of our problems we can grow out of this season but other problems are offseason fixes.
My issue is less the number or the vibes behind it, but I’m more so curious why 9-2 with only quad1A losses hasn’t budged it at all. That’s over a third of the season
There are capabilities and weaknesses that to me are predictors over the long haul of a season that go beyond wins and losses at this early stage. I think I summarized above the things I was looking for in evaluating this team so I won’t repeat it. It remains possible that some of those weaknesses could be overcome, some of the players could evolve and step up. I haven’t seen it yet. Not at all in some aspects and not consistently in others.
I believe when we get into the conference season, now that our opponents have a book on this team, those issues will be exposed consistently.
We’re making the tourney. People need to relax.
9-2 with two Q1 wins. We’re talented but inconsistent. Buckle up.
I think one of Fla or A&M dropped, as of this AM, but I think both will wind up there
Are you trying to say something about our next game?
It’s not as simple as that - if those losses look how our 2 losses have so far? We ain’t getting in. Eye test matters. And that would destroy our metrics.
If we lose by 20 in all 7 of those losses, then I agree