Agreed. Barring Morris getting injured (the only singular injury that would truly change the outlook for the season in a noticeable way), every remaining game on our schedule is very winnable and a game that I (at the very least) expect to be competitive going into the 4th quarter. Fair for people to have their doubts, but the numbers have been exceptional thus far. I implore anyone to do a deep dive into the analytics of our team so far. In all phases of the game, not just offense. Bodes very well for this season.
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This is the key right here. And despite Dukeās struggles, and UNCās, and VTās, and Calās (they havenāt struggled yet, but not buying that theyāre particularly āgoodā), these teams ALL have QBās that are dangerous. Particularly Duke and Cal, but even Gio and Kyron can do things that scare me given how bad our defense looked against State.
Keys to me are getting the defense to play good enough and for our run game to hold up against better comp. I think the latter is the real deal despite the poor defensive competition but I just worry a lot about our defense, even with Kam and Clary returning
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Agree. Morris delivers a TD against NC State and you have a 3-0 team averaging 48ppg (10th) on 289 ypg (25th) in the air and 260ypg (8th) on the ground and defense giving up 19 ppg (58th).
Thatās some historic level ish
Even with a loss the numbers barely shift ppg drops to 44 24th. and the boys are operating at an elite clip. Do they need to play better comp? Sure, but itās not like the team isnāt on track. The defense against State was concerning but not ring the alarm level yet.
Quick look ahead
Stanford 1-3 17ppg 119th, 145ypg in the air 122nd 136ypg rushing 92nd. Points against 23 Sorry not going to get my booty tight for this.
FSU Theyāre the real deal 54ppg (7th) points again 10 that concerns me
Louisville Probably the most even matchup left scores the ball well with a balanced attack 39ppg. Solid defense thatās been bottling teams up. But they also havenāt played anyone. Blew out EKU solid win against JMU. Really could copy paste everything said about UVa onto the Cards
Washington St. Can we bring them into the ACC West Coast contingent 2-1 after handling SD state and Idaho. N. Texas boat raced them last weekend. The stats are awful Iām not sure how they got to 2-1. 19ppg giving up 27 rushing the ball for 68 ypg which is fine for an air raid team until you realize they throw the ball for 225 ypg.
Whatās all this mean? I donāt know I got bored went down a rabbit hole and now Iām hungry. Enjoy what weāre experiencing with Virginia football itās been a min since weāve had anything to cheer about from this program or any major program.
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Iām wondering if losing to State might be a blessing in disguise. Weād have fans mentioning a potential playoff berth if we were sitting here at 3-0 with our remaining schedule.
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Wake, WSU, and Stanford should be easy Wās. Not saying they will; just that they absolutely have to be easy wins if weāre a team that has taken a meaningful step forward.
Most winnable games from there, imo, to get to bowl eligibility and then 6+ wins are in order:
- VT - if their team name wasnāt Virginia Tech, weāre looking at this game as part of the above bucket. Letās hope for a number of key transfers over the coming days, but this one will scare me no matter who is out there
- @UNC - Gio Lopez has looked downright awful at times and their defense is week. Think their game against UCF will be pretty telling. Chapel Hill is not an easy place to play but Iām confident that we are better than them.
- @Duke - Mensah has put up some empty calory numbers this year. On paper, they are very talented and could absolutely shred us on offense. But their fans are starting to turn on Diaz as theyāve been really prone this year to mistakes at key times. Game against State this weekend will be very telling
- @Cal - looked like one of our most winnable games to start the year, but theyāve really impressed this season. Their freshman QB is the real deal and their OL looks stout in pass protection. Another situation where we could get shredded. Also the whole going out west thing and playing late could play a big role too
- @Louisville - not sold on them being that good. But itās a road game and they have lots of speed + a fairly solid defense
- FSU - think theyāre a legit top 10 team with a really good offense. But crazier things have happened in Scott at night
Should be a fun season either way. Iām certainly looking forward to watching it play out. I mean imagine your season being over in week 3 and youāre on to coaching hot boards - couldnāt be me!
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I understand the logic but will never take a L as a blessing.
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Generally agree with that list I might even move Duke up to the 2 slot, but itās whatever.
All this talk takes me back to multiple conversations Iāve had with friends where all we wanted was that feeling from late 90 early 2k UVa where it felt like you had a shot in every game and it generally worked out. Thatās a feeling that has not been around this program for some time. Itās one that I have right now and it feels damn good.
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The flip side of that is that the loss in that fashion activated all of our decades of UVa fatalism and kind of killed fan momentum in the crib. We could use a little delusional positivity around here. I know Iām certainly not bringing any of it to the table. Defeat from the jaws of victory is kind of our MO, so there is a lot of ābelieve it when I see itā from our fanbase at the moment.
also ditto @BDragon never happy with an L. Not really a season for moral victories.
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Iām kind of a Manny Diaz skeptic. I didnāt really get that hire for them coming off of the success of Elko, but I also think he got a raw deal at Miami, so I was willing to wait and see. They so far just havenāt looked like they were worthy of the likely massive splurge to get Mensah to me.
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My feelings are similar on Diaz. I thought he could work out at Duke, but having watched their game against Illinois earlier this year and another peek into their stats and theyāre a bad team so far this season. His defense is terrible.
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Just wanted to add a little more context/data to our impressive start:
Weāre No.1 in the country in the 3rd down defense (meaning our 3rd down packages/personnel groupings are very effective despite the poor base down defense exhibited against NC State).
top 10 in the nation in 3rd down offense.
Top 25 in penalties per game.
Top 25 in turnover margin.
Couldnāt find clear/up-to-date data on our red zone efficiency as well as special teams play but you have to imagine those are very good as well going by the eye test. We are crushing almost every truly important statistic rn. Thereās a lot more that goes into fielding a successful football team than these stats, but they reveal a very important piece of the picture.
This season will come down to how the defense improves its base down defense. I have not rewatched the NC State game (Iām still too emotional about it lol), but from what I could glean from watching it live, the problems are not structural (ie schematic), but more stemming from the lack of poor fundamentals (tackling, run fits,etc). Stuff that should be correctable. Not too concerned about the pass rush only because of what Rudās defense is trying to do from a philosophical perspective. But I am very confident in him being able to figure it out
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I kinda feel better about UNC than I do about Wake, even though UNC is a road game. Wake feels like a team that might get better as the season progresses. I think UNC is could really fold upon the next blowout, which likely isnāt too far away.
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I go the other way. I think UNC can improve and Wake is weak. State pretty much shut them down after the initially flurry. I will not count out Bellichick yet.
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FWIW - here are the athleticās rankings:
UVa - 75
CC - 119 (W)
@NCSU - 43 (L)
W&M - N/A (W)
Stanford - 79
FSU - 4
@Lville - 26
Wazzu - 94
@UNC - 74
@Cal - 34
Wake - 90
@Duke - 58
VPI - 92
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The path to 8 is winning 6 of 7 of all games other than FSU and Louisville. Or win a crazy upset and 5 of 7.
Doable but very difficult.
Edit - Neckel puts this in probability form. Iām not sure what the expected value adds up to
https://twitter.com/DNeckel19/status/1967672714317160805
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What you donāt think 11-1 gets in? LOL
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Iāll probably regret saying this, but unless Tom Brady Jr. is a walk-on QB for the Heels just about to suit up, Iāll believe it when I see it.
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Seems crazy to me that at Louisville would be a larger spread than FSU at home. I get the home/road dynamic but Louisville is not that good imo.
FWIW - and it may not be worth much - Louisville beat Eastern Kentucky by about the same margin that Marshall just did this past weekend. Miller Moss has looked pretty pedestrian in their 2 games. Then again they do have arguably the best player in the ACC at RBā¦
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I want to throw dirt on the grave of Bellichickās coaching career, but I canāt get past the feeling that somehow he breathes some life into that team. But then I remember take out the Brady years and Bellichick is a horrible coach.
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