We are only one weeks away. I don’t think the USA has any chance… but I love the World Cup.
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Yeah, I’m with you. I think the US has no chance of winning the whole thing, but I expect them to get out of group, think they can win one beyond that and maybe more depending on the draw.
Hard to wrap my mind around the draw with this new format…used to be a lot more straightforward, but I think the US will have a strong chance to advance to the “sweet sixteen” – and a decent chance there – unfortunately, there’s a strong chance they’ll face a heavy favorite if they get to 8 (lots of models have them vs. France – I’d watch, but without hope).
But if they can make the quarters, that’s a solid result.
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If we win our group then we’d likely have a manageable round of 32 game before facing Belgium in the round of 16. Not a bad draw all things considered. But we have to win the group. If we come in second we are looking at Argentina in the round of 16. If we finish 3rd (and advance) we are probably playing a top 10 team in the round of 32.
Have we won a group in the modern era? Seems like we’ve advanced more often than not since ‘94 but typically in second place
It’s going to be a tough group – not a group of death, but actually a terrible draw in terms of how compact it is. There is no one to bully, and the fourth place team goes home. I expect a lot of very close games, and there’s no roadkill to pad goal stats.
The difference between winning the group and finishing third could be one goal.
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Sorry I meant for the knockout rounds. If we come in 1st in our group we won’t have to play any of the top 8 favorites before the quarterfinals. Belgium is good but more of a chance to upset them than a France or Spain.
For the group stage I’d prefer Mexico’s group. Canada probably a wash given they have Qatar but Switzerland is clearly better than anyone in our group or Mexico’s group. But I don’t think it’s terrible. If we play like we did the last two games we’ll get at least 5 points and be fine. But we have to play up to that level
Yeah, I got that. Just noting that our group is tough – not because it contains a favorite, but because there is no Qatar or Curacao - every game will be a battle instead of 2 of 3, which is going to shrink margins. IDK who the third place team from our group faces, but one goal could be the difference.
In terms of “favorites,” France and Spain are the two that I fear most. Lots of teams behind them that could whoop us, but all are flawed - Argentina is in the weird Messi + 10 other dudes and the 10 other dudes aren’t that great and neither is Messi. Ditto Portugal, though their 10 other dudes are better. . England is tough and compact, but I think we’d have a chance. Also Germany - as we just saw. Not as sure about other teams, though I don’t think we could handle Haaland. Really don’t know about Columbia, Ecuador, Netherlands (aging?), others .. and there will be surprises.
A round of 8 exit would be eminently respectable, especially if it came against France or Spain. Mostly just excited to see what this group can do and heartened to read that Richards went full in training today — he was the missing piece vs. Germany.
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Real talk over/under minutes of the WC Dragon watches is set at 30mins total.
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The USMNT should at least be a fun watch, offense has looked good, defense is kinda suspect.
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I wonder how much he paid. And if he made that much from this video about it.
If Mexico wins their group, they get the first 2 knockout games in Azteca. They would have a great chance at the quarterfinal.
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Richards being healthy is essential for USMNT, their centerbacks are weak overall even with him, and if they want to play McKennie more forward (which they should) they have pretty much no depth at CDM. They need the back to not give up stupid goals like they did in those friendlies.
They have more goal scoring ability this year than they did 4 years ago due to Balo and Pepi, plus just general improvement by the existing players. And they have a better scheme pushing Robinson and Dest forward, which should always be the MO of the US since they can fill up the field with athleticism. But I worry that they are going to let in a few goals they shouldn’t and I don’t know if they have the firepower to completely overcome that, especially against higher quality sides.
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Very excited for the WC as I always am. Went to the Senegal friendly and thought we looked good - also liked we looked against Germany on Saturday. Get out of the group and then it comes down to matchups. Agree that our draw is actually sneaky tough but I still expect the home crowd boost to get us out of the group stage.
Best sporting event there is imo. Going to make for a really fun Summer (and thank goodness it’s in the Summer, I was not a fan of it being in November/December last time around)
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USMNT starting lineup thoughts? I lean towards their lineup against Germany, wishcasting a healthy Richards in there:
GK: Freese
D (which is nominally a line of 5 that flexes into a line of 4 with Dest functioning as a winger): Dest-Freeman-Richards-Ream-A. Robinson
M (3): Adams - McKennie - Tillman (most advanced of the 3)
F (2): Pulisic - Balogun
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Group D winner plays the 3rd place team from Groups BEFIJ in Santa Clara. Winner of that plays 1G/3AEHIJ in Seattle. Group G is Belgium/Egypt/Iran/NZ. Winner of that plays 1H(Spain/Uruguay/Saudi/Cape Verde)/2J(Argentina/Algeria/Austria/Jordan)/2K(Portugal/Colombia/Congo/Uzbekistan)/2L(England/Croatia/Ghana/Panama) in LA. So the likely path to the semi would be some 3rd place team, Belgium then Spain.
Group D second place plays 2G in Dallas. Winner plays 1J/2H in Atlanta. Then 1B/1K/3rd place EFGIJDEIJL in Kansas City. So probably something like Egypt/Iran then Argentina then Portugal/Colombia/Bosnia/Switzerland.
Group D 3rd place might not even be in the top 8, but if they are it’d be the winner of one of groups EIK. The majority of the scenarios has 3D facing 1E. Likely Germany. I is likely France. K is likely Portugal/Colombia. (I’m just now realizing they set up a possible Germany-France round of 16 match). The 3D road if you get 1K seems somewhat reasonable? Portugal/Colombia then winner of the Canada group (Canada/Bosnia/Switzerland/Qatar) or a 3rd place team from EFGIJ then 1J/2H/2D/2G (I’d guess Argentina there).
Honestly, I’m pretty jealous of Canada’s draw. Mexico’s too.
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Just so much more convoluted, number of permutations makes my head hurt. IF the scenarios you lay out come through, would honestly rather finish 2nd (Argentina, portugal/columbia/bosnia/Swiss all scare me less than France or Spain. But way too much uncertainty – just try your best to win and deal with the draw you get.
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That would work - I might like Berhalter in for Tillman and I think the 5-2-3 (might have nomenclature wrong): featuring a back 3, all CBs and 2 wing backs; 2 mids; and 2 wingers; and a single forward; fits our style and personnel a little better (with the understanding that all of this is nominal and the inversions create different looks), for this lineup:
GK: Freese
D: Freeman-Richards-Ream
WBS: ARobinson, Dest
Mids: Adams - McKennie
Wings/Forward: Pulisic - Balogun - Berhalter (or flip Berhalter and McKennie)
On offense, Dest and Jedi push high, Pulisic is free to range behind Balogun giving the 3-5-2 look you describe, and they can invert and take advantage of spaces.
What we’ll probably get. I’d like to sub in McKenzie for Ream but doesn’t seem to be on Poch’s radar.
I’d also go with Pepsi over Balogun for the Australia game. Think he’s better suited for a game where we’ll be trying to beat a low block and likely have limited transition opportunities
Yeah it seems like the back 3 will be Freeman, Richards and Ream, and then Robinson and Dest as wing backs although Dest will play much higher and may even just he called a wing. I really like puting Freeman on Dest’s side, I think their athleticism plays well off each other.
Then you have Adams, Weston and Pulisic back to front, then Balo or Pepi up front.
Then the last spot can really go to a number of guys. Tillman seems like the favorite right now. This is where I wouldve loved Tessman, but I guess it wasn’t in the cards.
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Still such a bizarre choice. He can play CB better than Miles Robinson and DM better than Roldan. Could’ve had better coverage at two spots and still brought another player
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