Also probably more practical to compare players by their age too. This year 22 year old Davion Mitchell will be going in the lottery. But generally speaking, it is difficult to make that jump as an older player. I think Murphy fits the mold. While he would be older, he has a high athletic ceiling that doesn’t typically accompany older players
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Yeah Cam Johnson was good and a tall lengthy shooter- but everyone was surprised that he was selected at 11. He was definitely an outlier.
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My Suns trying to be the smartest guys in the room with the Cam Johnson and Jalen Smith picks.
Key word: Trying, although Cam at least has been okay.
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But they also traded Ty, so…
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I know the nba looks for certain things that are clearly very different from what’s baked in college basketball but I’d take Matthew hurt over trey righ now in a heartbeat.
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I love Ty but I’m not gonna fault a team that moves him in a deal for Chris Paul. Though the suns have generally been a dumpster fire of an organization, nailing the Booker pick in the late lottery has covered up for a lot of the past missteps.
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It’s clear the NBA favors youth + upside. But the exact ratio of the two changes from team to team. Trey leaving now gives him the best blend of both.
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I’ve watched more NBA games this year than probably the past 10 years combined because I added League Pass. I’ve seen Devin Booker a few times - he’s a heck of a player.
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Well, right. My point wasn’t that Murphy is Harris. My point was just that a great 3 and D specialist (like Joe) can make a ton of money.
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No athleticism, plus Trey already shoots 40% and *can be a better Hurt.
I think it’s useful in an evaluation to look at the in-season splits. How does a player perform before and after late January? That usually a point in the season in which conference opponents have good intel on opponents and can defend to take away player strengths. I think VT (1/30/21, game 14 of 25) was the tipping point this season. They were the first to effectively crowd the perimeter and get us out of sorts. It became the road map for other teams.
Murphy was 31/63 (49.2%) from 3pt prior to VT but only 21/57 (36.8%) afterward. 37% isn’t bad but if it’s your primary offense, your effectiveness falls off. If Murphy had a strong dribble move to either the rim or a mid-range pull up, he would be so much more effective. He shot 71 times inside the arc to 120 outside. Waldo was the only other guy who had that heavy a 3-pt rate, and he was considered to be pretty limited. I really think Murphy could improve his stock in a senior year by shoring up these areas and taking on a leadership role on the team. No idea what his priorities or financial needs are, but the fast money path isn’t always the best. There are a lot of people in the professional world who make quality of life decisions that aren’t always the highest paying or fastest track.
Will also point out that no one got more mileage out of a hot shooting streak than Anderson. He shot 30.3% and 29.4% from 3-pt in his first two years. Then he shot 45.2%, but the split was 36/70 (55.7%) thru mid-Jan and 11/44 (25%) afterward. He had an injury but he was still 7/25 (28%) in the 6 games before his injury. JA made a lot of money in that 2 month stretch from mid-Nov to mid-Jan.
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Problem is you can’t compare the professional world to athletes. There is so much time to make money in the business world. Athletes have that much smaller window. And their window can be closed at any moment by one bad landing or collision.
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Sure, that has to be factored in. And you are right that it is a very different world. Joe Harris will earn more this year as the fourth guy on his team than most of us will earn in our lifetimes. Still, if it were me or my kids, I’d choose to live the best life and not in fear of an injury or something like a car accident or even a less-than-desired senior season performance. But everyone gets to make his/her own decision.
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A $2 million jump start would certainly help with living his best life if basketball doesn’t pan out.
And look I actually see a good case either way. Not sure what I’d want a family member to do in Trey’s situation. Just think the people saying he should come back often understate the risk associated with returning to school. It’s not just injury risk but also the risk of being exposed as a player without the gravity of Sam and Jay. If he is good enough it really doesn’t matter what he does in the long run. He’ll get that second contract and be set for life. But if he is only a marginal NBA guy best to strike now and not risk coming out next year to no guaranteed money.
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But the truth is- if Trey makes money for just *one year and God forbid something happens he could still “go back to college” and get his degree, enjoy college life if that’s a priority for him or other players in similar positions. So that nullifies the college experience factor. The only thing he would be missing would be the UVa bball experience- which I get is special, but we are talking about his earnings and potential earnings so that part of the argument shouldn’t be a part of *this discussion.
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I get the risk of injury concern. It seems less likely for basketball than for a violent sport like football, but it’s there. I personally don’t buy into the fear of a bad year argument. It’s like ‘let me make money before they realize I’m not any good.’ It’s the polar opposite of ‘I’m gonna prove all the doubters wrong’ that’s also annoyingly overused. But a professional athlete has to have an abundance of self belief and a commitment to improve areas of weakness. Get rich before they see I’m really not that good is a horrible mentality for a competitive athlete.
As for going back to school later, of course that’s an option. But the college experience is not the same for an adult returning to college later on as for someone in the 4-year transition from high school to a working adult. Once you leave school to pursue professional career, you’re not likely to get the undergraduate experience back.
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The last college senior lottery pick was Cam Johnson and before that was Buddy Hield. Maybe he can move into the 20-30 range if he’s currently in the 30-45 range, but I doubt much more than that.
Also, what NBA team is going to ask him to score at all 3 levels? Anyone picking him wants a 3 and D guy who could develop more to his game.
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Thing is the kids making this decision now haven’t had a normal undergrad experience anyway and probably won’t get a full one next year. So that’s a piece of the equation that most kids have had that this year’s class doesn’t really have to consider.
And I get that’s not the mentality Trey has. But I hope his parents or someone else he is talking to consider that possibility. It’s an important part of the risk/reward analysis end shouldn’t be ignored just because it’s an unpleasant thought. And given his family and the fact he started at Rice I’m sure there is someone taking that possibility into consideration. Even if Trey doesn’t want to hear it. Probably ultimately a small part of the conversation but the reality is some kids return to school for an extra year and fall out of the following draft every season. It’s a possible outcome.
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Are you saying Murphy can’t become a lottery pick? I’d point out similarities with Johnson and Field in that they were all lesser-recruited kids out of high school than a typical lottery pick would be. But those guys went straight into Power 5 conferences, whereas Murphy went to a CUSA school and experienced a huge growth spurt. He wasn’t on any NBA draft radars prior to this year to my knowledge, so it seems the ACC exposure has done him some good. I think a two-year development pattern in the ACC could compare to Dre Hunter’s two-year stint, which also earned a lottery pick. As for a 3 and D, there’s nothing wrong with that. But if I’m choosing between players that are 3 and D role guys or a guy who can do even more than that, why wouldn’t I pick the guy who can do more? Khris Middleton is terrific, but I’d rather have Kevin Durant.
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There’s injury insurance available that may dwarf what many mid second round picks will likely earn over their nba lifetime (not necessarily including overseas play where many end up)