For this year it ain’t about that for me. It’s about the fact that the current roster is not likely to be good enough to make a Final 4 run whether or not Clark plays a ton. My preference is to get all of the underclassmen a ton of minutes regardless of results - especially early - and build toward 2022-24. If they all get a ton of minutes this year and then we add Isaac and Isaac next year, then that team will be ready to make a deep run by February of 2023. A seasoned starting lineup in 2022-23 of Beekman, Franklin, Murray, Gardner or Traudt, and Shedrick… with McCorkle, McKneely, and the freshman PG off the bench (maybe Nunez) is Final 4 worthy.
And I don’t mind Gardner getting a ton of minutes because he’s not blocking any underclassmen getting playing time at his position - and he’s been a very productive 3 year performer to date.
For me W/L for next season is completely immaterial.
What is material is seeing growth for Beekmam, seeing what we have in Franklin (and Gardner to some extent) and getting playing time for McCorkle, Murray and Shedrick, all with an eye on future teams.
It’s all about 21-22 and beyond.
I wonder if all the folks saying wins and losses don’t really matter next year will feel that way during the heart of the season. Actually, I don’t wonder about it at all. It’s not gonna happen
Depends what minutes and role allocation look like. Think most will be okay if it’s a rebuild because we are preparing the young guys. Fans will take the lumps if Reece, Carson, Taine, Igor, and Kadin are showing growth. Not so much if we are struggling while getting 30 minutes a night of Kihei driving into the trees and Stattmann refusing to shoot open 3’s.
It’s funny, I’m usually the pessimistic one tempering expectations, but I this year I think I’m more optimistic than most posting above. I never really believed last year’s team was going to do much in the tournament or felt like they were particularly great (was psyched we got that regular season title though). I’m way more excited about this year’s team. They may have a worse record as they need to gel, but assuming we make tourney, I think we’ll be much more dangerous (and no, not just because I know we lost in the first round last season - I’d say so without knowing anything about tourney result, although that’s impossible for me to prove.)
Also, we can’t count on Gardner and Franklin necessarily being here two years, so I hope they kick ass this season.
If Murray defends well enough to get 15+ minutes in ACC play and Beekman has a respectable outside shot that completely changes my outlook on this team
Just to be clear, I want them to win every game next year. I just don’t view that as the primary driver of a successful season.
Same! But I admit I’ll probably complain about it.
AMEN, 1000 Likes if I could.
Kihei could play fewer minutes and still be a critical player. Joe Harris played fewer minutes per game his senior year than in any of his first three years. He had talented guys around him and they had improved tremendously as a group.
A point guard like Kihei works best when he can find teammates in position to score. Last year we had three primary scorers who all preferred the perimeter and not much else. Not a lot for a PG to work with. Add that Kihei struggles to score due to his height and Reece couldn’t shoot, and we were a limited bunch. If next year’s guys can score ina variety of ways, inside and outside, guys like Kihei and Reece become even more effective in setting them up.
I’m looking forward to next year, even if we look rough in the early months. We have a bunch of new guys and young guys who could really make some developmental leaps this year.
Disagree with your second paragraph. Jay was one of the best pick and roll big men in the country the last two years. Sam was about as well rounded of an offensive four as you will see in college. Trey was the only one who fits your characterization. The issue was almost entirely about Kihei and Reece having to play together and opponents being able to cheat so far off of them. The two guards were the issue offensively. You give that front 3 London and Devon (let alone Ty, Kyle, or Malcolm) as the guards and it would’ve been right up there with the 15/16 and 18/19 groups.
The defense was the third worst among TBs UVA teams (worst two being the first two years). Offense was the third best. While Kihei and especially Reece weren’t great, it was really the defense that held us back a lot of the times. And then we lost in the tournament because our 2 seniors choked it up and shot 2-14 from 3. And they were all almost wide open too. It wasn’t about spacing issues from Kihei and Reece. Huff and Hauser just blew it.
But in college guards really are the formula For success, so even though I like Kihei and Reece if it were as mentioned before London, Ty, Devon, Guy, Malcolm etc. it would have been a different story.
Don’t disagree the defense was an issue. But next year will also most likely be a work in progress on that end since 7 of the 10 players have limited packline experience.
That’s one way to characterize the tournament lose. Another is that our Hall of Fame coach got absolutely destroyed in timeout usage that game. Seriously go back and look at the runs going into and coming out of timeouts. But probably the fairest way is to give our guys a break because they had to deal with a covid disruption (and subsequent hectic travel and limited sleep schedule) that the rest of the tournament didn’t have to deal with. Especially since the 3 guys (Tony, Sam, and Jay) who struggled the most in the tournament game are the 3 guys who won us the ACC regular season.
Right - it’s their inability to shoot that impacted the rest. Early in the season it seemed that we had MUCH more success with Jay on the pick and roll, however as the year progressed (and especially in the Ohio game), i do not recall much (if any?) success from that kihei/jay pick and roll leading to the lobs it did in the nonconference season. I assume that was driven by defenses scouting and being able to adjust how they defended it? Clogging the middle with whoever was guarding Reece (in this scenario)?
Not smart enough and haven’t watched enough replays to be sure, but i would guess it’s that combo’s deficiencies that then allowed defenses to limit the things our others could do quite as well, most specifically Jay at the rim.
My main quibble with this is that Jay and Sam were some of the best shooting bigs you’ll ever see, but they were not necessarily as well rounded as you can be. We were terrible at working down low or getting to the free throw line, and too happy to hang out on the perimeter and jack up long distance shots. When they hit, great, but the plan B wasn’t there, so when they didn’t, we just kind of pathetically wilted in that Ohio loss. Still can’t believe with our height advantage (and I think maybe some foul trouble on their big/bigs) we so fantastically failed to get close to the rim. After the first 5 straight minutes of no baskets I would have just told Reece and Casey to attack the rim no matter what and have Jay trail for putbacks - force ref to get involved in the game. Instead we just kept missing threes. Hated it.
Again though that came down to the guards not keeping defenses honest. Pick and roll doesn’t work if the defense can just hang back on the pick. Hard to feed the post when the guy trying to make the pass is 5’9 and the other guard’s guy is helping into lane. Going to be even harder next year if we only have one good outside thread instead of 2 elite ones and another elite for a center.
Think it’s clear key to the offense next year is making Reece the point and pairing him with a 2 and 3 who can shoot. If Kihei can shoot like he did in 19/20 he can be that 2. But when they are on the court together I firmly believe Reece should be the primary initiator. If we shoot well enough to keep the lane open Jayden should have a great season giving us that post threat we’ve lacked since AG and Tobey graduated.
Totally agree those contributed, but I think other things did too. You can’t tell me that one of the best coaches in America can’t figure out how to feed the post on at least a couple plays when the outside shots aren’t falling or that Reece or Casey couldn’t have forced the issue, taken their man, and attacked the rim more often if told to (especially since their bigs had to be stretched out toward the perimeter when ours where hanging out at the three point line). The problems you mentioned were very real, but the lack of adjustment and switching to a plan B or C when plan A was going down in flames was just very frustrating to me. Part of that was tactical choices, part of that was neither Jay, Sam, nor Trey operating in the post frequently enough or being capable of drawing fouls close to the basket. When it was all hitting the fan, they just kept launching shots from distance. Everybody played a part in that, not just Kihei and Reece. That’s all I’m saying.
I agree to the extent that those guys weren’t good enough to cover up the problems created by the 1 and 2 not being able to shoot. Guys who are good enough to do that are lottery picks. But I stand by my belief that if you could combine the Murphy-Hauser-Huff trio with one of our prior backcourts then that offense would’ve been up there with Baylor and Gonzaga.
I also agree the lack of adjustments was frustrating. I think last year was down there with 16/17 as far as Tony’s coaching jobs go. I was plenty frustrated down the stretch of the season. But with some time after the season and hearing more about how much practices were altered I’m putting a lot of that on Covid.
At the end of the day, completely agree a lack of shooting at the 1 and 2 was a huge problem. Maybe it was the biggest problem. I just don’t think it was the only problem, and as folks look back on this season, I hope it isn’t remembered as the only critical factor. Kihei and Reece are not the only ones responsible for that Ohio loss - not by a long shot. (Edit: Also, to be clear, you weren’t saying that - just making a general statement)
I’ll also just say - and this is very subjective - the vibe of last year’s team was just never right. From afar, it felt like there was no clear leadership and it just never fully clicked. Assign responsibility for that to who or what (COVID?) you want, but I think it played a factor (and I think all the exits at the end of the season speak to there having been something amiss). The thing I loved about the team the previous year - even though watching them attempt to score sometimes bordered on torture - was their attitude and willingness to fight tooth and nail to the bitter end. It’s a shame they didn’t get a chance at the tourney. They almost certainly didn’t have the offense to make a deep run, but I don’t think they would have lost to that Ohio team, and I think they’d have been fun to watch.
I’m honestly just excited for this year’s team because I really do think it’s going to be a fun team even if it takes a while to come together, and I’m just excited for somewhat of a fresh start.