I think this might be the disconnect. I’m talking about the whole stretch run of the season once the blueprint was out. Essentially post-Tech. The offense went from borderline elite to mediocre. 99.5% of that is guard play. Not just Kihei and Reece but also the fact the rest of them were so inconsistent we had to ride that pair.
For me the Ohio loss will always be attributed to the Covid stoppage. But even if we won that game I doubt we get by Creighton. Not trying to discourage anyone from being optimistic about next year. I think we have a chance to be very good again. But a lot of that is because of the jump Reece is going to take. If we were getting last year’s version of Reece I’d be concerned about keeping the tournament streak alive
Jay was not as effective getting to the rim after defenses adjusted. Looking at 24 games of stats from last year (W&M stats weren’t posted), Jay had 23 assisted layups and dunks in the first 12 games. He had only 13 in the last 12 games, which started with VT, the first team IMO to show a blueprint of how to defend us. Also interesting where those assists came from in the first half of season vs second half - from Kihei (43% to 46%); from Reece (26% down to 8%); from other guys (30% up to 46%). Defenses stopped collapsing on Kihei and Reece and took their chances rather than leave Jay open for an alleyoop. Our coaches had to work to find how to get Jay the ball as defenses adjusted.
But there’s no denying Jay had a penchant for outside play. More than a third (34.5%) of Jay’s FGA were from 3-pt. Compare to Diakite’s senior year of 17.5%. He was pretty good at it but it we didn’t really have any other interior presence and consequently lacked offensive variety. Sam had a very good mid-range jumper, but it tended to be of the slow-developing, post-up turnaround variety, not one created by a PG. Neither he nor Murphy was an attack the basket type. They preferred the outside jump shot. And I said, as you did, that Reece and Kihei’s inability to score made things even worse. I think a huge boost to our chances this year will be for those guys to have a reliable three-point shot.
You have to coach the guys you have. You say feed the post. I’d argue we didn’t have a post. Jay was a reluctant post player at best. He much preferred space and movement. Trey and Sam were not attack the basket players. I think the lack of offensive variety the last couple of years has been an issue with recruiting and also development. If you look at the high school videos of last year’s players, none of those guys was really an attack-the-basket type. Compare to the videos of Ty, Kyle, and Dre - those guys scored outside, inside, and from everywhere on the floor and could all pass too. Easier to create offensive sets for guys who can do everything instead of just one thing really well. I look at the videos of Taine Murray, McKneely, Traudt, Reed Sheppard, (even throw in Armaan Franklin as a transfer)… I am encouraged that we are back to going after guys who do many things very well.
This is where I believe we disagree. It seems you are laying the offensive struggles at the feet of the front court trio with the guards being a complicating factor. I see it as the opposite. The guards were THE problem. Not just Reece and Kihei but also the rest of the group forcing that pair to play such heavy minutes together. The reason Jay wasn’t as effective after the Tech game was because Kihei’s man didn’t have to play the shot or drive on the pick and Reece’s man could cheat all the way off him into the paint. Reece’s man could also cheat whenever someone tried to feed post. That’s going to make things incredibly tough inside for basically anyone who isn’t an NBA starter type of talent.
I don’t think Reece is magically going to become a 35%+ 3 point shooter. Just hoping for incremental improvement and willingness to shoot. But if Kihei bounces back to his sophomore level and we let Reece initiate that should help solve some of the issue. The rest will come down to Carson and Taine being more reliable than Woldo and Casey were (assuming Franklin can more or less replace Murphy’s productions).
So long story short I agree with you there is a path to 21-22 being a better offense. There is also a path to a disastrous offense depending on how those guard minutes and roles work out. Lower floor but possibly a higher ceiling on that end.
I think the Clark-Beekman pairing’s lack of outside shooting and playmaking when things stagnated were a big issue. I also think the Huff-Hauser pairing’s lack of inside presence were an issue too. The ‘21 team had a lot of good pieces, but the pieces never fit quite right. Both Hauser and Huff would’ve been better playing beside a guy like Diakite or Gill instead of each other.
Just looking at the roster, Murphy will be picked in the 20-40 range; Hauser should get quality GLeague time with a chance to earn an NBA call-up; Huff and Woldo can have long overseas careers; Clark can make some decent money in a top league in Asia; Stattmann and Calgary might be second division level players somewhere; Beekman and Shedrick have some potential. Morsell and the guy who transferred to UNC whose name has temporarily escaped my mind showed occasional flashes. They just never fit together to be more than the sum of the parts.
We also relied on the 3 too much. I get that it was a strength of our front court, but I think Gardner is gonna bring back some of that Anthony Gill low post scoring we’ve missed.
I hope so. Sure is/was a lot of hype. Hype scares me. Maybe this time reality will match or exceed the hype. The young man sure “seems” motivated and hungry.
Edit: Looks like I hit the wrong Reply button. I was replying to most recent USSocer13 post.
I get that but he consistently put up big numbers in a solid league (American), not a mid-major league. He did it against ranked teams road/home. If he can stay healthy (Lord willing) he will be a 15 and 8 guy for us.
Yep yeah and yes. AND, for the first time in forever, our offense should run inside out. Our current problem is we will need consistent perimeter shooting to work that effectively. Hopefully Armaan, Taine, and Carson will be threats the defense must always find and Reece and Kiehi can tick up their %
Does the summer practice session have a NCAA (or whoever) mandated start/stop date or are they practicing from now until season start?
Does HGN and others here have physical access to watch practices and will they (or are they allowed to) report on progress and such?
Also, does anyone know if Isaiah Wilkins is working with the players now? I listened to a podcast with him and he seemed to have questions regarding when he would start helping out but maybe I misinterpreted what he said.
Did you mean ‘21 or were you also making a point about the Diakite/Key team too? Think you are correct about the pieces not really fitting together well on either team.
If this team is closer in talent and composition to the 2019-2020 team, which I think it is, then the question shouldn’t be whether or not we can win an ACC regular season crown. We should be asking if it can make the tournament
We arguably should have if not for a total collapse by ND against FSU. When we won eight in a row, seven of those eight were one score games. If half of those go the other way, then we are staring at the bubble going into the ACC tournament
Man, I’m usually the pessimist but I really disagree. I think people are really selling this team short. Franklin and Gardner were very nick pick-ups, and I think Milicic and Murray will be far more ready to contribute than previous overseas prospects. Shedrick and McCorkle are big question marks and Caffaro and Stattmann may have pretty limited ceilings at this point for a number of reasons, but there’s enough talent for a very solid starting five and some good bench contributions. At least I think so.
