Only if you are thinking about it before your first flip of the coin. Now that we’ve won the first two games, the odds of completing the trifecta are 50/50 (and I actually think our odds of beating GaTech in the semis are a good deal higher than that if we meet).
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Yes I know it doesn’t change our current odds. I’m just suggesting that unlike most series sweeps that lead to a third game, this is not a 90-10 scenario, and is probably closer to 60-40
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Just to put my two cents in… I’m fine with Clemson winning and not knowing whether beating Ga Tech a third time is difficult or not.
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That’s a good point that the data-generating process merits consideration. A good conditional logit regression model would account for the respective strengths of the teams (by considering their ELO rankings going into that third game, for instance).
We better come out ready to play at noon tomorrow. Cuse and the Wolfies are both playing like their seasons are on the line.
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Since Fresh and I were just discussing the “hard to beat a team 3 times” myth (that he believes)(and he’s wrong about), here’s an article I found that attempts to separate more evenly matched teams from the Gonzaga versus At Mary’s type matchups.
The subset of the data we’re most interested in, though, is the 40 games where the 2-0 team is better than its opponent by a margin of fewer than 50 rungs on the KenPom ladder. Those are the times where—if it is actually more difficult to beat an opponent three times—one would expect to see the underdog win on a somewhat regular basis. Maybe not 50 percent of the time, but at least 25 percent, right?
Well, that’s not what the numbers show.
In those 40 games, the 2-0 team won the third game 85 percent of the time. In fact, the 2-0 team was almost twice as likely to win the third game by a larger margin than its first two wins (11 times) than lose the third game (six times)—including North Carolina’s 17-point win over Syracuse in last year’s national semifinals.
It’s already a small sample size, but if we cut out 2012 and 2013 and just focus on the last three years, the 2-0 teams in those “evenly matched” battles went 21-2, winning by an average margin of 10.8 points.
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Makes note to practice against a full court press tonight.
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Post-season Boeheim is a different animal. I assume we learned our lesson.
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I don’t respect your fuzzy math. I’m sticking with Fresh here.
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Thank you sir. and anyone agreeing to not agree with Fresh … as I told @PhonyBennett you cant predict history with math… or some shit… Of course no clue what that means but its what came out
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The simple, math-free explanation is that if you’ve beaten a team twice, chances are you are better than them (at least when matched up). And if you’re legitimately evenly matched and have somehow won the first two matchups, then yes it will be hard to beat them, but not because it’s the third time, but because you’re legitimately evenly matched.
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If the sum of Virginia’s points is not greater than the sum of Syracuse’s points tomorrow, I expect to see some penance for violating the humility pillar.
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Miami beating Clemson would be terrible for ACC NCAAT seeding. Would hurt the Tigers, GT, and whoever wins between us and Cuse.
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#firebrownell
Wow Clemson. Now we have to watch these ugly Miami uniforms at least one more game.
Lol Clemson
Why isn’t Katie George doing the ACCT?
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UVa broke Clemson FSU broke UVa, ND broke FSU so that means I have no idea. Some one else do the math, I don’t do stats.
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I think this team has the personnel to beat the zone and Tony’s offensive sets against it have had success.
Personally I was hoping for Cuse over State for sure
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Think we have to be pulling for duke for a possible FSU upset tomorrow