Keels backcourt mate at PVI is a Duke commit, Jeremy Roach. Should have mentioned that. I probably sound more pessimistic than the reality of the situation. If he were forced to decide today, pretty sure it’d be UVA or Villanova. It just changes how the game will be played going forward.
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I get it if they’re seeking exposure. Nice to have essentially the only major sports network as your propaganda machine. But Coach K has really been more of Recruiter K for going on a decade. He’s not the “coach” he was 20 years ago. Other than a free pass on berating referees I don’t see him as any different than your average D1 coach. Certainly not from a development standpoint. Duke and Kentucky have so many pros because they came to campus pro ready. They aren’t pros because they developed their skill there.
And if you are truly a OAD type talent you are going to get your points and exposure no matter where you go. I will never understand why so many alphas feel the need to surround themselves with other alphas. I don’t get it.
Not to mention, I can’t understand how anyone, 17 or 87 can’t see that K is a greaseball. If K appeals to you, I have no idea how Tony ever could.
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[quote=“PlainHOOfresne, post:62, topic:1520”]
Duke and Kentucky have so many pros because they came to campus pro ready. They aren’t pros because they developed their skill there.
[/quote].
This is a really good point. All of the OADs running through these programs aren’t interested in acquiring the skills, especially on the defensive end, that CTB and UVA have to offer. That’s too bad since the NBA is increasingly placing an emphasis on defense. Fingers crossed that will become evident to more youngsters as they evaluate their offers.
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also why would TB want an one and done? makes no sense for our program not to mention the baggage etc. Remember Bagley at Duke
“sitting out”. Coaches cant do their jobs that way. TB takes his job very seriously.
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I don’t see Keels as one and done. I guess it’s possible, guards can play their way up the ladder easier. He’s a first year producer for sure. The guy was WCAC Co-POY as a Soph with Morsell and Villanova’s Justin Moore. I think before he jumps to the league, he has to tighten the handle and just improve his overall guard skills. 6’5 wing doesn’t work as well in the league. Get more consistent with his shot too, streaky right now. And mostly he needs to improve his body. Basically all the UVA staff specialties.
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I think people are asking the wrong question when they ask, “Why would Coach Bennett want a OAD?” He’s extended offers to kids that eventually became OADs. From the 2018 recruiting class, Zion Williamson and Coby White come to mind. It isn’t a question of the staff not wanting elite talent. The question you need to ask is, “Why would a prospect that sees himself as a OAD want to come to UVa?” If a recruit intends to play just one year of college ball, then he is looking for a platform to showcase his offensive skill sets. He wants to be seen by NBA scouts running up and down the court scoring points. That is not Virginia. PT for true frosh is limited, and, in recent years, when it has happened, it has been due to defensive prowess, not scoring ability. It is not that Coach Bennett doesn’t want those very elite players. I don’t think those very elite players want Virginia.
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If you were an elite basketball player who needed to make a decision on where to spend the one year between high school and the NBA draft, you might make a perfectly rational business decision against just one criteria: where can I best showcase my talents for NBA scouts?
Everything else is secondary. Including winning. For example, no one looks at Trae Young’s college career as a failure – he got tons of attention. Didn’t win a damn thing. But he got tons of attention because he had the green light to do whatever he wanted on the court. Now, generally speaking, there are a few programs, like Duke and Kentucky, that do a very good job of promoting one-year players.
It’s not irrational to choose Duke and Kentucky. They’ve built a package to lure those players: the promise of playing time, playing style, and media adoration. The lack of schoolwork and under-the-table payments are part of the deal, of course, but they’re secondary. And those teams win. You’re going to get to play on the big stage. Zion got paid to go to Duke, but that doesn’t mean it was otherwise a bad decision to choose Duke over Clemson.
If you choose Virginia over Duke, for example, you’re signing up to (1) be a real student, (2) be a team player, (3) sit on the bench until you earn playing time through demonstrated ability to play defense, and (4) score AT LEAST 30% less than you would elsewhere. Does anyone doubt DeAndre Hunter couldn’t have scored 20+ points per game in a fast paced program? He averaged 15 at Virginia – in his third year in the program.
So it’s not that top recruits don’t like Virginia or don’t understand what Virginia has to offer. They know. They know they’d learn more at Virginia. They know they’d win more at Virginia. But it does come at a price.
You can point to recent NBA successes from Virginia, but you don’t understand the counterargument: no one has ever been drafted from Virginia before their 21st birthday. No one. Ever.
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This is also why it works both ways. Recruiting is an enormous heavy lift for programs- especially places like Uva. You expend lot of resources on players you go after so is large reason I dont think you see us anytime soon going after obvious 1 and dones.
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Actually, I think we’re entering the window where it makes perfect sense. Bennett has a pipeline of talent that will stick around for years (Beekman, Morsell, McCorkle, McKoy, Caffaro, and Shedrick will all still be playing here three years from now). And he’s in with some great players in 2021. After that, he can plug in a hypertalented one-and-done, especially a wing, and not disrupt his model.
And keep in mind that after the 2021 class, if it includes a couple four-star recruits, will leave the program absolutely loaded at every position for years to come. Bennett will have a choice: go back to landing recruits like 2017 or 2018 when he had no predictable playing time to offer, or just chase superstars (and get transfers if he fails). It’s probably a better model.
Of course, it still needs to be a very specific one-and-done who fits the culture. So it’s not likely, but it wouldn’t surprise me a bit to see Bennett chasing one-and-dones after landing his 2021 class.
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Isn’t the 1 and done era coming to an end in the next 2-3 years? Why upend the entire program for 1 class?
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There will still be plenty of players left who view college as short-term. Plenty. In 2019, only 13 one-and-dones were drafted.
But many of the top 30 or 40 players view themselves as potential one-and-dones, and make their college decisions that way.
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Not saying TB and staff would say no to perceived 1 and done but dont see them expending enormous resources that they may need on 1 player for 1 season. Do see more experienced guys and maybe even transfers coming in for short term stints however.
Could be interesting the first coachs decision red shirt in history to be picked in top 10 having never set foot in college game though…
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They just invested two years of scholarship in one year of Sam Hauser. He’s obviously a proven “one-and-done” and they get a year to work with him during his redshirt, so it’s not exactly the same, but it does show that Bennett will entertain players who won’t be here for four years.
I think Bennett’s recruiting strategy is his response to the realities at Virginia. He can’t out-recruit Duke (and certainly can’t outspend them) so he’s adopted a different model. But if he could out-recruit Duke? If he could steal a one-and-done from them?
I think he’d do it in a second.
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I am wondering if it is wrong to think Duke is adopting to out-recruit CTB?
This would be the 3rd time they’ve been up there for Mitchell.
UPenn, Temple, Virginia, Marquette and St. Joe’s are all expected to be at @TheHoopGroup Reading Tip-Off tomorrow night for 2021 Wilson West Lawn (PA) and @PhillyPrideAAU guard Stevie Mitchell, his coach tells me
— Ari Rosenfeld (@ARosenfeldHoops) December 12, 2019
Paul VI with Trevor Keels plays in Philly on Saturday, so I expect whoever is making this trip will hit that too.
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Fact or speculation?
Here’s what Adidas said on the wiretap:
Code: “Hey, but between me and you, [Zion] asked about some stuff … I know what he’s asking for. He’s asking for opportunities from an occupational perspective, he’s asking for cash in the pocket and he’s asking for housing for him and his family.”
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Well we know his parents had a VERY nice house in Durham. The money? No doubt, lol
Ah. I’d forgotten about Avenatti.
Again, it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy. After initial contact, I very much doubt that the staff is going to pursue prospects who don’t show much interest in Virginia, and, if a recruit sees himself playing just one year of college ball, he isn’t going to show much, if any, interest in UVa. Finding players that fit is a process that sort of solves itself. The biggest impediment with which Bennett has to deal concerns pathways to early playing time. A loaded roster presents a barrier that can be difficult to overcome. It will be interesting to see if Virginia’s recent success mitigates this in any way.
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