I would be 80-20 eye and as people have said adjust as the long ass season goes. The key is having dedicated staff to really run analytics and presenting things to you that your eye isnt telling you as the season goes.
Also think is different by position but thats proly obvious to this annoyingly smart and thorough crew
I donât know. The way Morey describes it the Michael Lewis book The Undoing Project sounds like the eye test even if he doesnât use that exact phrase. The book goes on to talk about cross-racial comparisons removing bias and other tweaks to his player evaluation model.
Hereâs the relevant excerpt about Lin and a link to more of the book. Thereâs also discussion of DeAndre Jordan, Pau Gasol and Joey Dorsey, among others. Itâs a really interesting read.
âHe lit up our model,â said Morey. âOur model said take him with, like, the 15th pick in the draft.â The objective measurement of Jeremy Lin didnât square with what the experts saw when they watched him play; a not terribly athletic Asian kid. Morey hadnât completely trusted his model â and so had chickened out and not drafted Lin. A year after the Houston Rockets failed to draft Jeremy Lin, they began to measure the speed of a playerâs first two steps: Jeremy Lin had the quickest first move of any player measured. He was explosive and was able to change direction far more quickly than most NBA players. âHeâs incredibly athletic,â said Morey. âBut the reality is that every **** person, including me, thought he was unathletic. And I canât think of any reason for it other than he was Asian.â
Thanks, I will check that out.
Interesting take for sure. I also question Daryl Morey as an evaluator of talent and team building based on his last 2 stops.
I have no opinion on him cause I dont follow BUT if you are all in on your model and dont trust it the F is the point?
True, I respect a person who goes all in on what they believe in, even if I donât agree.
How you go from âmy model said hes 15â to letting him go away. Nah man. Trust it or toss it
Great point. Either heâs not telling the full story, or he doesnât believe his own system.
I think he was saying that at the time of that draft, the model was still young and unproven. Itâs since undergone many tweaks (like age and competition adjustments). So back during the Lin draft, he didnât quite trust it yet and his eyes and his scouts were telling him something else.
I think he now trusts his model and maybe the 2020 draft (Tyrese Maxey at 21 was a steal, Isaiah Joe and Paul Reed are both on the NBA roster as late 2nds) validates that some. Or maybe since he was hired 2 weeks before the draft he wasnât as involved with it. No clue there.
The national title team is a really interesting case study on the value of eye test vs analytics. The lineup data all year was saying start Mamadi over either Kihei or Jack. Lineups with the Big 3, Mamadi, and one of Jack or Kihei were awesome. The starting lineup was barely out scoring opponents (crazy for a team that only lost 3 games all year). But we were winning every non-Duke game with that Kihei-Kyle-Ty-Dre-Jack starting lineup so why change it?
Luckily Florida State happened, Tony made the switch, and the rest is history.
Felt like there were a few games including Auburn and TTU we should have won semi going away
Blew large leads in both of those games. The Auburn one seemed mostly to be about Ty sitting with his 4th foul.
I thought one of the reasons they lost to FSU was multiple people playing who were sick especially Ty. They just didnât make excuses after the game so it wasnât common knowledge.
Iâm 70% eye test, 20% metrics
And 15% math.
15% REEEEEEEECE!!!
They were so off that night that an illness would make sense. Either way that loss appeared to be what finally got Tony to change the starting lineup.
We can not have a starting line up that has 3 sub-par shooters in the back court next year. I feel like we have turned away from what made us great for so many yearsâŠbig guards who can shoot
Or even non-big guards who can shoot (Guy). But at the end of the day, we used to be able to shoot. We were near the top of college basketball in hitting threes for a while. Now weâre near the bottom.
